‘No’ vote would win at Catalan referendum by a point: new poll

If a legal referendum on self-rule were to be held in Catalonia today, ‘no’ would win over ‘yes’ by one point, according to the latest poll by the Catalan Opinion Study Center (CEO), which is funded by the Catalan government.

The survey, which was released on Friday, shows 47.8 percent opposition to independence compared with 46.7 percent support for a Catalan republic.

Despite the slight unionist victory, the gap between both camps has narrowed significantly since June, when a similar survey showed a seven-point lead by detractors of a break from Spain.

The study also shows that 37 percent of Catalans feel the political situation will improve within a year

The poll was conducted between October 5 and 27, after the regional election that was won by the separatist coalition Junts pel Sí, but before the approval this week of a controversial motion declaring the start of the breakaway process.

Support for complete secession grew to 41.1 percent, up from 37.6 percent in June and in detriment of alternative formulas like a loose state model or increased powers of self-rule without actual independence.

This scenario theoretically benefits CUP, the small anti-capitalist party that holds the key to power in the region with its 10 deputies. If new elections are held in March as a result of ongoing disagreement over the new Catalan premier, the CUP could raise its representation to 14 or even 16 deputies in the Catalan parliament.

The study also shows that 37 percent of Catalans feel the political situation will improve within a year, while 16 percent think it will get worse and 30 percent see no significant changes on the horizon.

English version by Susana Urra.