Duel with no surprises

Angela Merkel failed to obtain any clear advantage in the televised debate with her Social Democratic Party (SPD) opponent, Peer Steinbrück, the single such occasion before the German general elections on September 22. Indeed a narrow majority of the chancellor's compatriots consider that the former finance minister was more convincing in the development of his arguments — which will put some wind in the sails of his so far lackluster campaign.

In spite of this, and of the fact that she often seemed to be on the defensive, few doubt that Merkel will be re-elected to a third mandate. The worst eventuality for The Christian Democrat leader is that she may be forced into a "grand coalition" with the SPD — which the chancellor does not rule out but her rival apparently does.

The underlying reason for these general expectations — and for the ruling center-right party's more specific expectation that it will obtain an 11-to-15-point advantage over the alliance between the SPD and the Greens — is not that Merkel is far more popular than her rival, which in fact she is. The 90-minute-long televised confrontation did not bring forward anything new in terms of their platforms. There was some discrepancy on the euro, fiscal policy and US espionage in Europe — all these being fields in which the challenger blames the prime minister for mistaken policies, though some of his criticisms (basically Merkel's handling of the euro crisis) are considerably devalued by his own party's support of the government. Both of them rule out any participation in the armed action in Syria being mulled by Obama.

The most consistent electoral argument in Merkel's favor is that, with its conservative chancellor, Germany has obtained an enviable position in Europe and in the world. And, according to the opinion polls, voters seem to be reasonably satisfied. The controversies of the summer, from the American espionage scandal to the possibility that Greece may need a third bailout, have not appreciably altered the picture.

The euro crisis, now in its third year, has dramatically boosted the power and importance of Berlin, giving these elections a special relevance. The firmness and caution shown by Merkel, however sharply some countries may disagree with her methods, generates confidence among voters. Germany — united, rich and strong — is the hegemonic power in Europe, and many Germans associate this fact with the chancellor's lengthy and discreet leadership. In what remains of the campaign, Steinbrück will have to try very hard if he is to prove the forecasts wrong.