Raúl's big year?

It has been a warm Christmas season in Havana. The 12 months of 2011 have flown by in Cuba, studded with events that have marked our national life, notably a number of people being released from jail (and others put in) and a series of measures easing economic restrictions. What began with the discussion on the guidelines of the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party in April, now continues with the preparations for a National Conference, of which little is expected. This has been a year in which our authorities have been more active than ever before with economic changes, yet people's impatience for more has never been so great. Many steps have been taken, but they seem to have been taken on a treadmill, because we are still standing where we started.

Raúl Castro has undertaken the arduous task of dismantling his brother's system, while the Commander in Chief is still alive. Without ever openly admitting it, Raúl has dumped many of Fidel's most cherished programs. He has totally eliminated the so-called Field Schools, extended the parceling-out of lands for use by peasants, and given an initial green light to self-employment. He has also cancelled other daydreams such as the huge shock troop known as "social laborers;" terminated Operation Miracle, which imported patients from other parts of Latin America to be operated on in Cuba; and dismantled the Sugar Ministry, whose harvest had dwindled to ridiculous figures. In an audacious gesture by decree, he allowed the purchase and sale of automobiles and houses. He even wore civilian dress to a Latin American summit, at which he signed a declaration containing a mention of democracy and human rights.

Yet "Raúlism" has not produced the expected results. A kilo of frijoles still costs three days' salary, and huge sums are still spent on importing food. Rumors of massive corruption are rife, and one feels they are well founded, though of course nothing appears in the media. In a recent speech, Fidel said that "corruption is one of the principal enemies of the revolution, worse than subversion," and spoke of "white-collar crime" at high levels - although "olive-green-collar" might have been a better term. Indeed Raúl Castro has been bringing some of these crimes to light, and if he keeps it up he will make many enemies in his own camp, as if he didn't have enough already in the dissident movement.

October brought a time of trial for both persecutors and persecuted, with the death of Laura Pollán, leader of the Ladies in White, and the stir it caused. The political police followed the present government's distinctive line in the repression department. Brief periods of detention, liberally seasoned with threats, no formal charges laid - unlike the big show trials so much to the taste of Fidel Castro.

Activists have also had to face media campaigns against them, and the paramilitarization of state security agencies. At night on a street corner, three unknown men grab a dissident and hustle him into a car: no badges, no uniforms, no accusation. Raúl's Cuba is thus more unpredictable in the area of punishment; the uncertainty surrounding these reprisals becomes another instrument of coercion.

Insecurity is also generated by the slowness and hesitancy with which certain reforms are implemented. The long-awaited elimination of restrictions on migration has not been among the items on this year's menu, with the consequent frustration. Nor have other political parties been allowed, all debate being still officially "among revolutionaries." The general has had a tough year, in which he has had to make changes that will irremediably diminish his power; yet he sees that his popularity is also shrinking. The year just ended has not been Raúl Castro's big year, at all. His stubbornness, and the logic of events, have seen to that.