One week to go

The latest opinion poll published in EL PAÍS, a week ahead of the November 20 general elections, points to the Popular Party (PP) winning an outright majority in Congress. The survey gives the PP a 15-percent lead over the Socialist Party, which is losing ground throughout the country to other parties from the left. The likely outcome is that the PP will have a majority of around 79 seats, 11 more than when José María Aznar won a second term. There will likely be an increase in smaller parties in Congress, rising from the current 27 to as many as 45. Such an outcome would highlight the failure of the strategy adopted by the Socialist candidate, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, in trying to attract votes from the left by sending out the message that the PP's Mariano Rajoy would make deeper cuts than those implemented by the current prime minister as well as threatening the welfare state established over the last 30 years.

Rubalcaba's strategy was based on the fact that in previous elections, the Socialist Party has done well when the center-left vote is concentrated in its favor, while on those occasions it is not it suffers, as in 2000 when it joined forces with the United Left (IU) to run on a joint program. The strategy has failed for other reasons as well: voters seem more concerned about the need for change itself rather than fear that the PP will make things worse. Rajoy's popularity has only increased recently, but the polls have shown for some time that the electorate believes the PP is better equipped to deal with the crisis.

So far, Rubalcaba has failed to make any dent in the PP's lead in the polls, with 16 percent of former Socialist Party voters saying that they want the PP to win, with a further 17 percent saying that they do not care. Rubalcaba has less than a week to convince voters who are already highly skeptical as to the margin of any government to act independently of decisions taken in Brussels.

The situation in Italy should strengthen the Socialist Party's position by pointing out decisions taken by Zapatero over the last two years have avoided the need for any bailout in Spain; the situation in Greece should illustrate that the current government has found the balance between austerity and maintaining growth incentives. Surely this would be the best way to counter arguments that the government has not done enough to tackle the crisis.

The poll in EL PAÍS also provides insight into where the two main parties will do best, and worst. The biggest turnaround will be in Andalusia, where the Socialists are set to lose control of its traditional stronghold where it has held power since 1982. In Catalonia, the Socialists are set to lose 10 seats, but will hold onto its first place, garnering around 30 percent of the vote, almost doubling its quota from last year's regional elections. Bearing in mind that turnout is usually greater in general elections than regional polls, and that the PP will also likely take five seats, it appears that most Catalans reject the arguments of the nationalist parties there.

The poll suggests a similar outcome in the Basque Country. Support for nationalist parties tends to fall in general elections: the likely result is a draw between the Socialists, the PP, and the moderate Basque Nationalist Party. At the same time, the radical left will likely see a surge in support after the decision by ETA to end its violence. In the rest of the country the trend is a rise in support for the PP and the IU.