On the road to elections

On Monday the Cabinet passed the decree dissolving parliament and announcing general elections. Regardless of the result, Zapatero, who for months has been preparing to be a good ex-leader, will no longer be living in the Moncloa prime-ministerial residence. He has been preparing for this ever since he grasped the fact that recovery of the economy (and the labor market) would not happen in time to convince the undecided 30 percent of the electorate that the polls show to be among his former voters. That is why he stepped aside in favor of Rubalcaba, while at the same time shouldering the role of scapegoat for the public malaise that was apparent in the May local and regional elections.

With a view to the November polls, Rajoy has a significant advantage, but as election day approaches, the Popular Party (PP) appears less concerned with ensuring its victory, which it takes for granted, than it is with arranging the necessary parliamentary support in case it does not attain a clear majority. The seven prescriptions with which Rajoy lectured Zapatero in his farewell congressional speech are mere generalities that contain a lot of common sense, but no answer to the particular dilemmas of the crisis, such as how to combine deficit-reduction commitments with the need to stimulate growth.

Proof of his own perplexity in this area has been the PP's attitude in the last parliamentary session: Rajoy argued against the wealth tax, but abstained from voting - no doubt in order to have his hands free to maintain it should things get as bad as the IMF is predicting.

This panorama differs from that of the PP's first victory. When then-Prime Minister Felipe González announced early elections at the end of 1995, the economy had already begun its recovery, so that, against the attrition of the Socialist government, the PP alternative was seen as a factor of stability. Now, as then, Rajoy is benefiting from the majority's desire for change, but his margin for turning it into economic recovery in the short term is slim. But with his range of proposals, some sounder than others, his opponent, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, faces the challenge of showing that the program is what matters. Rajoy enjoys the advantage of needing only to appear as an alternative to what we now have: almost five million people unemployed.

Another issue that will affect the results is the attitude to a possible clear PP majority. After the experience of the second legislature of José María Aznar, many voters consider it vital that this not be repeated, which may favor the vote for other candidacies, including that of Rubalcaba, whose hope of governing is bound up with the possibility of a multi-party parliamentary voting alliance. However, a similar number of his potential voters may, in view of the effects of Zapatero's policy of alliances with regional-nationalist splinter parties, consider that nothing would be less favorable to anti-crisis measures than to have the two principal parties bidding against each other in concessions to buy the support of these allies. This consideration may strengthen the vote for the PP, so that it could govern without their support.