War ignites in Asturias as Rajoy turns back on "political godfather"

Opposition leader Mariano Rajoy got a rude awakening on New Year's Day when his "political godfather," Popular Party (PP) powerbroker Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, suddenly announced he was abandoning the PP, an organization he had been affiliated with for 34 years.

In a strongly worded letter to Rajoy on Saturday, Cascos said he was leaving the party to save his "dignity" because he believed that he didn't get the protection he had asked for from the derogatory campaign in Asturias, where he wanted to run for regional premier.

Just 24 hours beforehand Cascos learned through the press that the National Electoral Committee hadn't selected him as the PP candidate in this year's elections in Asturias. Instead, the committee chose Isabel Pérez-Espinosa, Oviedo Mayor Gabino de Lorenzo's right-hand woman.

Some internal polls showed that Cascos was a shoo-in in Asturias

Rajoy led him to believe that he was the candidate all along, say sources

"The decision is final and the circumstances that justify them you know too well," Cascos said in his letter. He told Rajoy that he believed that the party's national leaders should have protected him from the "slurs" and "insults" lodged by some PP members in Asturias- "sexagenarian" and "street terrorist" among them- after he announced that he wanted to reorganize the local party in the region.

"In my last handwritten note dated October 27 I told you that, in my opinion, politics requires very high doses of patience and flexibility- but complying with the educational and civilized standards adopted by any organization and which are considered non-negotiable," he said.

The slander campaign began last year when De Lorenzo asked Cascos over lunch to form a pact with him, which he refused and told the mayor that he had planned on reorganizing the party.

Cascos' sudden move is expected to brew party turmoil not only in Asturias- a key region for Rajoy in the regional races in May- but also at the national level where this political horse commands significant internal support among high-profile leaders.

Along with former Prime Minister José María Aznar and Rodrigo Rato, a former IMF official who is now Caja Madrid saving bank president, Cascos emerged in the 1990s as one of the leaders of the conservative right's rebirth following Manuel Fraga's retirement.

But Rajoy, who was taken under the wing of these three men, has now distanced himself politically from his one-time mentors. It was 20 years ago when Cascos, who at the time was the PP secretary general, told Aznar that he wanted to bring in a young Rajoy for leadership grooming. The former prime minister accepted and Rajoy became deputy secretary of organization policy.

A former party secretary general, Cascos served as deputy prime minister and later public works minister under Aznar.

Now, Cascos has decided to run in Asturias by forming his own platform with supporters, which include various mayors and members of the regional parliament. He hasn't said whether the grouping will become a new party. Those close to Cascos did not think this a far-fetched idea because past internal PP polls had shown that he has enough support in the northern region to win.

Following the break with the United Navarre People's Party (UPN) in 2009, which complicates a PP win in Navarre this year, an offshoot rival party in Asturias is the last thing Rajoy needs, say some observers.

But the situation leading up to Cascos' resignation had been tense. Just days earlier, Cascos contacted some of his closest allies, including the former prime minister, Aznar- who later unsuccessfully tried to convince him not to abandon the party- and Madrid regional premier Esperanza Aguirre, who lauded him in a public letter two weeks prior to his resignation, saying: "I wish you luck in your new endeavors because your success is success for all Spaniards."

Earlier last month, about 300 supporters showed up for a fundraiser for the Catholic charity Cáritas in Madrid, which was held also in honor of Cascos. Both Aznar and Aguirre sent video messages, which were played during the event, supporting his candidacy.

Cascos also had strong support for his Asturian bid from other influential figures within the PP hierarchy, including Galicia's regional premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Yet his biggest enemy in the echelon, according to party sources, was secretary general María Dolores de Coespedal.

In the end, political observers see the spat as another casualty in the ongoing battle between Aznar supporters and Rajoy backers, who are trying to dismantle the old guard. "Rajoy isn't a revolutionary, but he is a reformist who is trying to build a new center-right that is open and modern," says a source close to the party leader.

Party veterans and Cascos supporters are indignant at the way Rajoy settles internal conflicts. However, everyone acknowledges that Cascos isn't an easy person. They believe that Rajoy followed the same route he took with Madrid Mayor Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón: he lets them believe that they have his support and then allows them to get burnt publicly.

Those close to Cascos say that on at least two occasions the party stalwart spoke face-to-face with the party leader about the situation and Rajoy led him to believe that he wasn't going to stand in the way of his Asturian aspirations. In fact, they say, Rajoy let him know that he would support him because the internal PP polls showed that he was a shoo-in. But when Cascos learned about the committee's decision in the press, he and his supporters called it a "humiliating blow."

Still, there are older party veterans who believe Rajoy will be able to survive this latest crisis, judging by the PP's popularity in the polls, even should he lose the Asturias race.