Analysts warn of the global effects of a hypothetical AI stock crash
Credit rating agencies, international banks and other experts have created scenarios based on a potential loss of confidence in a red-hot sector that is driving the economy forward
Up until now, investors’ fears were focused on artificial intelligence (AI) coming up short of the expectations that have built up around it. But starting this past weekend, the main fear is that its own creators might slow down the speed of development out of concern for other kinds of worst-case scenarios.
The high expectations surrounding the technology’s leading companies, together with concerns about their circular financing dynamics, have been subjecting the industry to pressure for months. Now, Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Microsoft have asked to slow down development of the more cutting-edge AI models, thereby introducing a new element of tension: the possibility that these companies might reduce their spending levels, one of the great drivers of the current economy. As on other occasions, however, investors did not jump ship: the tech-heavy Nasdaq index barely flinched on Monday.
But what will happen if this trust ever fails?
The credit rating agency Fitch has put numbers on this scenario: if stock prices in the AI sector were to drop 35% over the course of six months, the United States would enter a recession in 2027. The effect would spread to the rest of the world, and global GDP growth would fall to below 1% next year.
The impact would be two-pronged: for one thing, investors with savings in AI stocks would lose wealth. And not just American ones: the European Central Bank estimates that euro zone households hold €444 billion in U.S. tech stock. Additionally, under stricter financial conditions, private capital spending in tech infrastructure would drop by as much as 6%, said analysts at Fitch. Lower demand would mean lower prices, leading to a drop in inflation across all economies, so that central banks would reduce interest rates to mitigate the impact.
This is not, however, the main scenario envisioned by the credit rating agency, which released its report on the AI boom in early September. Even so, it is far from the most pessimistic one. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), based in Basel, Switzerland, says that the stock market correction could be even larger than suggested by earlier innovation waves, such as the dotcom boom of the turn of the millennium, which sank the S&P 500 index by 50% in two years, according to an early 2026 study.
Both the BIS and Fitch base their concerns on a drop in the value of AI-related stock following an investor reevaluation of the industry’s ability to generate profits. At an event organized by Goldman Sachs last week, with representatives from Google, OpenAI, and SpaceX in attendance, the investment bank concluded that companies are increasingly demanding measurable results from their AI investments. And the consulting firm McKinsey said in a recent report that only 37% of companies that introduced AI systems have noticed a positive impact on their gross benefits.
Far from slowing down, investment in this technology keeps growing and now accounts for a third of the U.S. economy’s growth this year, according to an estimate by ING. Five of the top AI companies together represent nearly a trillion euros in capital investment between 2025 and 2026, according to BIS. That is more than half of Spain’s annual GDP, for example.
For now, the stock markets remain euphoric. Corrections in the main indexes on Monday were lower than initially expected, and remain near all-time highs.
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