Japan struggles to address growing number of empty houses

Millions of abandoned houses that threaten to become ghost neighborhoods or garbage dumps, even in major cities, are one of the most visible consequences of Japan’s aging, a country that fears being overwhelmed by social spending on pensions and elderly care. There are currently 8.9 million empty homes, or 10.3% of the total. These include properties that have not been available for rent for years or whose owners have given up ownership, according to the latest statistics from Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, from 2023.

By 2033, 30.4% of the archipelago’s homes will be empty or abandoned, meaning that, on average, every household could have an uninhabited house next to it, according to a study by the Nomura Research Institute (NRI). The causes of the problem include high inheritance tax, the cost of demolishing uninhabited homes, and the tax burden on land with little prospect of sale, much of it in sparsely populated rural areas. Added to this is a complex and non-binding cadastral regulation that, until the reform of April 2024, allowed an heir to abandon their property and disappear.

In some Tokyo districts, teams of officials on bicycles are on the lookout for overgrown gardens, houses with broken windows, and other obvious signs of abandonment. “When we receive a complaint from a resident who has been affected by an abandoned building, we try to locate its owner or heir,” explains Taeko Chiba, one of a team of five officials from the Setagaya district, a residential area of Tokyo with nearly a million inhabitants. Once the owner is located, the officials try to convince them to speed up the demolition, something that is made more difficult by the increase in taxes when the land is left empty, something local governments can only decide upon if there is a threat to the neighborhood.

Searching for the Japanese term “empty house” on TikTok brings up videos of fires breaking out in abandoned homes, buildings overflowing with rubbish, or overrun by wild animals. There are also examples of how properties that were completely abandoned are being converted into new homes, shared offices, or guest houses. Renovating old houses to share, a trend accelerated by teleworking and precarious employment among young people, is only part of the solution, explains Wataru Sakakibara, an expert at NRI.

Discard and renew

According to Sakakibara, the problem of empty houses is a result of Japan’s “discard and renew” culture, which originates from its status as a volcanic archipelago prone to natural disasters. This culture gave rise to a prototype of the two-story wooden house that is usually replaced after 30 years.

“To stop the increase in vacant houses, the decline in birth rates must be halted,” the expert continues, explaining how, despite the economic downturn, regulations to encourage construction that were initiated after the Second World War and were necessary in periods of high growth persist. The short life cycle of Japanese houses gave rise to a multi-million dollar real estate market that is “difficult to change,” the specialist concludes.

In 2022, Japan recorded nearly 770,000 births, a record low that official forecasts predicted for 2030 and which was attributed, among other factors, to the decline in marriages, the drop in pregnancies, and job insecurity during the pandemic. Keiyo University estimates that Japan’s population will drop from its current 125 million to 88 million by 2065, a decrease of 30%. The country has been trying for decades to stop its population decline with unsuccessful policies, such as subsidies for young marriages and digital applications for finding a partner.

Greater female participation in the labor market and reluctance to enter into marriages where traditional unequal roles persist are other causes of the declining birth rate.

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