US job creation unexpectedly accelerates in September

The U.S. economy continues to resist all adversities. The figures for the month of September reflect a buoyant labor market that seemed to have lost some of its strength in recent months, but is surprisingly gaining traction again. Last month, the world’s largest economy created 254,000 jobs. As a result, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, according to figures published this Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figures reflect an economy in good shape with a month to go to the presidential election.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 254,000 jobs, the highest number since March and clearly above the average of 203,000 jobs per month created over the last year. It is also well above analysts’ forecasts of around 140,000 new jobs in September.

In addition, the figures for July and August have been revised upward. With the new data, the U.S. created 144,000 jobs in July (55,000 more than previously estimated) and 159,000 in August (a 17,000 upward revision). The economy is in a soft landing phase, and the specter of recession that arose with the employment reports of the last two months is fading again.

The data reinforces the idea that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush or act aggressively at its next meeting on November 7, after cutting interest rates by half a point last month. October employment data could affect the decision, but everything so far points at a cut of 0.25 percentage points, to fall within the 4.5%-4.75% range.

After Friday’s jobs report, investors have all but written off another half-point rate decline, which was their forecast just a week ago. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insisted in his last news conference on conveying a message of optimism that is confirmed by the facts. “The U.S. economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down, the labor market is in a strong pace, we want to keep it there. That’s what we’re doing,” he stressed after the monetary policy committee meeting.

Inflation is down and approaching 2%, economic growth remains strong, the labor market is buoyant, consumer spending is resilient and interest rates have started to fall. In addition, wages are gaining purchasing power, rising 0.4% in September and 4% over the past 12 months. The economy seems to be in good shape at the moment.

October employment data may be affected by the Boeing strike —a dockworker’s strike has been called off — and by the flooding caused by Hurricane Helene, which has hit the southeastern United States hard and left more than 200 people dead.

Pending this month’s figures, the Democrats are approaching the elections on November 5 with an extraordinary balance in the labor market. During Joe Biden’s presidency, 16 million jobs have been created and the unemployment rate has fallen, despite the upturn in recent months and the increase in the labor force. These figures contradict the apocalyptic message of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, who talks about a country in crisis and a sinking economy, claims that do not match reality. What is certain is that the rise in prices over the last four years has eclipsed much of the achievements of Biden’s term in office.

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