Life expectancy in Europe is no longer growing as it used to

Life expectancy in Europe continues to grow, but at an increasingly slower pace. In Spain, for instance, life expectancy in 1960 for both sexes was less than 69 years, and today it is over 83. This trend was similar in all advanced countries thanks to a drastic reduction in infant mortality, the control of infectious diseases through sanitation systems, vaccines and antibiotics, and improvements in the general standard of living. In recent years, successes in the treatment of some types of cancer and the reduction in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, thanks to the decline in smoking, some changes in diet, or the use of drugs such as statins, have continued to add years to life expectancy.

A new study published in The Lancet Public Health journal that analyzed the evolution of life expectancy in European countries between 1990 and 2021 shows that, while in the period from 1990 to 2011 there was an increase of 0.23 years per year (5.5 years in total), between 2011 and 2019 it grew by 0.15 years per year (1.17). To this must be added that, due to the Covid pandemic, between 2019 and 2021 life expectancy was reduced by 0.18 years each year. In total, if the period from 2011 to 2021 is taken into account in all the countries studied, life expectancy practically stagnated.

The authors of the paper, collaborators in the GBD (Global Burden of Disease Study) on life expectancy in Europe, attribute the slowdown to the usual suspects. On the one hand, there has been a progressive increase in obesity and excess weight, and exposure to dietary risks such as the consumption of ultra-processed foods, which already account for 40% of caloric intake in many European countries. Although much less tobacco is consumed than before, it remains an important risk factor, followed by alcohol, which is also consumed in excess.

Cardiovascular disease and cancer are two of the main causes of the slowdown in life expectancy. After successes in the past decades, improvements in mortality from cardiovascular disease have slowed since 2011 in many countries. This can be explained by the increase in obesity, which also offsets improvements in the control of bad cholesterol (LDL) and blood pressure. Regarding cancer, there are countries that have achieved greater gains in life expectancy for people suffering from this disease since 2011 than during the previous two decades. Portugal, Belgium, France and Spain, together with the Nordic countries, show the best results. Wales, England, Northern Ireland and Finland experienced smaller improvements and Germany, Scotland and Greece even suffered reductions in life expectancy related to cancer.

The authors explain that countries that maintained the pace of improvement in life expectancy after 2011, mainly the Scandinavian countries, Iceland and Belgium, did so by maintaining their performance against cardiovascular diseases and tumors, and reducing the exposure of their populations to risks such as lack of exercise, junk food or tobacco through public policies. These decisions require tackling four major industrial sectors that, according to the authors, are responsible for at least a third of premature deaths: tobacco, ultra-processed foods, fossil fuels and alcohol. The economic importance of these sectors means that, except in the case of tobacco, effective policies are not applied to mitigate the harmful effects of their products. The authors suggest that governments can apply measures such as regulating the advertising of harmful products, establishing taxes on unhealthy products or promoting healthier alternatives.

Countries that managed to maintain the increase in life expectancy since 2011, thanks to prevention policies and access to quality medical care, also coped better with the pandemic.

The authors believe that, in order to reverse the trend they observe, emphasis must be placed on preventing health problems before they appear, because both cardiovascular diseases and cancer take years to develop. It is also necessary to overcome the idea that good habits are individual decisions. Although the ability of each person to decide cannot be denied, public policies are needed to facilitate and promote exercise or make junk food less omnipresent and cheap, because, as numerous studies have shown, health does not improve and worsen due to individual decisions but, fundamentally, due to the environment. An example that has been studied is the case of Japanese nationals who moved to Hawaii. While their relatives in Japan maintained one of the lowest obesity rates in the world, the descendants of these emigrants suffered from excess weight similar to that of their fellow Americans, sharing with them unlimited access to junk food and an urban planning that eliminates public transportation and the need to walk.

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