South Florida, the laboratory against the climate crisis in the United States

In Miami Beach, the debate is no longer about whether the climate crisis will arrive, but how to live with it. In this coastal Florida city, where flash floods have gone from being a seasonal phenomenon to an increasingly common nuisance, climate change is experienced as a daily emergency. A study by the CLEO Institute predicts that by 2100, large areas of Miami could be permanently underwater if sea levels rise by six feet (1.8 meters), precisely the city’s average elevation.

“If our elevation is above the six-foot level and a rise of that same amount is being predicted, then you don’t have to be a scientist to know that large parts of Miami are going to be flooded,” explains Yoca Arditi-Rocha, CEO of the CLEO Institute.

She adds a less visible but equally serious problem: soil porosity. “Sea level rise is seeping into the water table and impacting our water security because the city of Miami’s drinking water comes from the aquifer beneath us, which causes it to mix with the saltwater in Miami’s aquifer.”

Given this diagnosis, it is clear that “climate change is no longer a future threat, but is already underway.” And Miami Beach has decided to take the lead in the fight.

Ground zero for resilience planning

In 2006, long before the climate crisis dominated headlines, Miami Beach created the Environmental Sustainability Committee. At its helm was Michael Góngora, then a city commissioner, who recalls that the political and scientific climate was different. “There weren’t as many studies on the issue yet, but it was already clear that something had to be done,” he says.

One of the committee’s first conclusions was that the city needed a flood prevention plan. This led to the creation of the Stormwater Master Plan, an ambitious program that included three pillars: raising streets, installing powerful drainage pumps, and building new natural and artificial defenses.

“What we were looking for was to keep the streets dry and healthy,” says Góngora, while describing the mechanism: by raising the level of the roads, the houses are lower than the street, which allows for the insertion of underground pumping systems that redirect the water at a higher speed.

Although the project aimed to protect the city from flooding, not all communities welcomed it with the same enthusiasm. In the early years, some of Miami Beach’s wealthiest areas vehemently opposed the plan. Góngora recalls that “residents panicked because they couldn’t understand why the city would raise the street while their property remained below,” as many feared that the new elevation would cause more problems than it solved.

“They were afraid that the water would recede and cause flooding for them,” he explains, while admitting that the initial mistrust hindered the project’s progress and forced the city to intensify communication to convince residents that the water pumps and new infrastructure would prevent precisely that scenario.

Despite neighborhood resistance, the lengthy process of obtaining permits from the State of Florida and the legal complexity, the works began in 2013 and have expanded since then.

The project also included the construction of retaining walls and the restoration of dunes that act as a first line of natural defense against rising sea levels.

Over the years, the plan has ceased to be a local experiment and has become an example that other cities across the country are watching closely. The solutions implemented in Miami Beach are now being studied in various parts of the United States as a roadmap for adapting to rising sea levels and increasingly frequent flooding.

“Miami Beach has been at the forefront of resilience planning,” says Alex Fernandez, who was recently re-elected as city commissioner. He notes that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has officially recognized the city’s progress, positioning it as a national model.

Although there are no exact figures, municipal authorities acknowledge that investments in resilience already amount to “hundreds of millions of dollars,” an unprecedented effort the political impact of which, Góngora admits, is limited: “It’s difficult to promote projects whose results are not seen in the short term and that don’t bring votes.”

But the climate emergency, he warns, “does not wait for election cycles.”

Climate gentrification

While Miami Beach invests to combat rising sea levels, another wave is silently advancing: that of climate displacement.

In South Florida, historically lower-income areas — such as Allapattah, Little Haiti, and Brownsville — are paradoxically located on higher ground, making them less susceptible to flooding. This geographical advantage has become a magnet for developers and new, wealthier residents.

Expensive insurance is a central part of the problem. Between 2019 and 2024, homeowner insurance rates in Florida increased by 55%, one of the most dramatic increases in the country. And, according to data from the Consumers Federation of America, 14% of Latino homeowners and 11% of African Americans cannot afford homeowner insurance, compared to 6% of white homeowners.

For many homeowners, the decision is driven by insurance, which, “in some cases, has doubled in value in recent years.” “Many clients have come to me and said: ‘You know what, Esteban? Let’s sell and let someone else pay for it,’” says Esteban Reyes, a real estate specialist.

Along those lines, he also warns that the increased cost of insurance directly impacts home purchases: “Depending on how expensive the insurance required by the bank for that flood zone is, it greatly affects the purchase.”

Antonieta Cádiz, executive director of Climate Power in Action, denounces that this is a “very unfair” situation because “millions of people are going to face what is called climate gentrification: people who are forced to be displaced as a result of the impact of climate change.”

Cádiz estimates that “roughly half of the 2.6 million residents in the Miami area will face climate gentrification in the near future.”

The cycle is complete when mandatory insurance becomes prohibitively expensive for the population. “Insurance companies are seeing that disasters are ongoing and they don’t have enough resources to cover all the insured people. So they pass that cost on to consumers,” Cádiz explains. The result? “You have fewer insured people, and in Florida, 14% of Latino homeowners don’t have homeowner insurance. If they have to face a climate disaster, they lose everything.”

The Brownsville case

Between 2010 and 2020, the Hispanic and white populations in Brownsville increased by 91.4%, while the African American population fell by 23.8%, according to Census data. In this historically Black neighborhood, developers have seen an opportunity: elevated land, a central location, proximity to trendy areas, and still relatively affordable prices.

“The areas further inland from Miami are becoming much more expensive, and that means that long-time residents can no longer afford to live there,” Cádiz explains.

Thus, the communities that have occupied these neighborhoods for decades are being displaced by higher-income residents, attracted by the relative safety from flooding and lower insurance premiums. Cádiz sums it up starkly: “They are literally being expelled because they see people with more money buying up those areas.”

Experts agree that Florida faces a historic dilemma. On the one hand, cities like Miami Beach are investing billions in adaptation projects, but on the other, climate organizations warn that adaptation alone is not enough without implementing profound mitigation measures to reduce emissions and slow the pace of global warming.

Arditi-Rocha insists that cities must balance both strategies. “The vulnerability is there and it’s getting worse,” she notes. And scientific projections — including those from Scientific American, which estimates that more than half of the area’s residents could face pressure to relocate if the sea level rises 40 inches — suggest that the challenge is only just beginning.

Whether or not South Florida succeeds in becoming a model of resilience will depend, to a large extent, on its ability not only to defend itself against water, but also to prevent its most vulnerable residents from being left out of the equation.

Because, as organizations and experts warn, the climate challenge is not only measured in millions invested, but also in a city’s ability to protect its people.

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