The battle for Congress is as close as the fight for the White House

The battle for Congress is as close as the fight for the White House. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, and 34 of the 100 senators in the upper chamber are seeking to keep their seats in Washington. Currently, Republicans hold control of the House, while Democrats maintain a narrow majority in the Senate. Polls indicate that the two parties could potentially swap chambers, with Republicans poised to win the Senate and the Democrats to control the House. However, anything can happen, as polls show both parties are neck and neck, mirroring the tight presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Most House races are not competitive, but there are 22 toss-up contests: 10 Democrat seats and 12 Republican. Who controls the next House of Representatives hinges on a few key districts in California, the most populous state in the country. Five Republican representatives are fighting to maintain their seats, with three of them trailing in the polls by as much as five percentage points.

With the odds in his favor, Rep. Pete Aguilar, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus, has ramped up his campaign efforts in California. Over the weekend, he held nine rallies aimed at swaying voters to vote for the Democrats.

On Friday, the Cook Political Report, a respected election analysis organization, revised its forecasts for six House races nationwide, indicating that Democratic candidates are better positioned to capture Republican seats in two districts in New York and one in Nebraska. What’s more, three Democratic lawmakers in Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have also seen their chances of reelection improve.

Multimillion-dollar contests

The Open Secrets organization, which tracks private donations to political campaigns, estimates that $1 billion has been spent in the most competitive House districts. Even more has been allocated to Senate races, where the closest contests have generated $2.5 billion in spending among candidates. This positions the 2024 election cycle to potentially be the second most expensive in history, behind only 2020, when congressional campaigns reported expenditures in the vicinity of $11 billion. The total spending for the 469 seats up for grabs this year is projected to reach $10 billion.

The Senate elections in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, Texas and Michigan are among the most closely watched. Republicans have a good chance of regaining control of the Senate from Democrats, with Republicans defending 11 seats while their rivals are defending 23.

Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, who has often posed challenges for the Biden administration due to his ties with Republicans, is stepping down. It seems likely that conservatives will secure that seat, potentially resulting in a 50-50 split in the Senate.

The balance may shift in Montana, where Democratic Senator John Tester is campaigning for re-election for a fifth consecutive term in a solid Republican stronghold, where Trump is projected to win by 18%. Polls currently favor Tester’s challenger, Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman with a background in the Navy’s elite SEALs, who is making his political debut.

According to the Associated Press, which compiles data from Open Secrets, this is one of the most expensive races of the cycle. Both candidates have spent $260 million in a state with a population of just over a million.

But the most expensive battle is unfolding in Ohio, a state that isn’t on the radar in the presidential race, which is concentrated on the seven swing states. Another Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown, who has served three terms, is fighting for his political survival against Bernie Moreno, an immigrant from Colombia who arrived in the United States at the age of four. Moreno, a successful car dealer, aims to become the first Latino to represent the Midwestern state in the Senate. Between Brown and Moreno, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 Republican primaries won by J. D. Vance, nearly $405 million has been spent on the race.

The Republicans, meanwhile, are fiercely defending their stronghold in Texas, where the controversial ultra-conservative Senator Ted Cruz is facing a close challenge from Colin Allred, a congressman who has been gaining momentum in the polls in recent months. Allred, an African-American former football player turned civil rights lawyer, poses a real threat to Cruz, who has held his Senate seat for 11 years.

Democrats are optimistic about Allred’s chances, prompting Kamala Harris to campaign in Texas at the end of October. The event, held just 11 days before the election, featured Beyoncé and highlighted Allred’s commitment to women’s rights. This isn’t the first time Democrats have sought to unseat Cruz; in 2018, they lost by a narrow margin of 2%, or about 200,000 votes. On Tuesday, Texas could elect its first Democratic senator to Washington in 36 years.

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