What is Super Tuesday? Can Trump and Biden be assured of their nomination?

There may be a little less excitement in the air than at other primaries, but Super Tuesday is coming up and it is a key date in the race for the presidential nominations. That is the day when the largest number of states will be voting and awarding the largest number of delegates to the Republican and Democratic conventions scheduled for the summer, when the nominees for the November 5 election will be formally designated. Around a third of all the available delegates are at stake (which is to say, around two thirds of the necessary amount to win the nomination) for both parties. Polls are showing a big advantage for Joe Biden among Democrats, and for Donald Trump among Republicans; still, even after this week they will still not have the mathematical majority that’s required.

What is Super Tuesday?

Super Tuesday is the day — usually in February or March — when the largest number of U.S. states hold presidential primaries or caucuses. Approximately a third of all available delegates for the nominating conventions can be won on Super Tuesday, more than on any other day. Historically, Super Tuesday results are a clear indication of the possible candidate for each political party. Since 1988, the winners of Super Tuesday have always gone on to become presidential nominees.

How many states are voting on Super Tuesday?

The figure has varied from year to year. In 1996 there were only seven states, while in 2008 a record was set with 24 states between both parties, leading the day to be nicknamed Tsunami Tuesday. This time around, voters from both parties are being called in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Besides those 14 states, on the Republican side there will be a caucus in Alaska, while on the Democratic side, the results from Iowa will be made public (that state has been voting exclusively by mail since January 12). Additionally, primaries will also be held in American Samoa.

Can Trump clinch the nomination yet?

At the July 15-19 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, there are a total of 2,429 delegates. To secure the nomination, Trump needs 1,215 delegates. He comes in with about 270 and 874 are at stake on Tuesday, so at a minimum he will have to wait for the 161 delegates in contention on March 12, when Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington State will vote.

Can Biden clinch the nomination yet?

The Democratic convention will be held August 19-22 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. It will have a total of about 4,540 delegates and superdelegates (the designation is based primarily on their position), but on the first ballot there will be 3,934 delegates. Biden must get 1,968 pledged delegates. He has 206 of the 208 that have been awarded, and 1,420 will be allocated this Tuesday. As the Democratic schedule is somewhat behind the Republican schedule, he will not be able to pass the required threshold until March 19 (when Arizona, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio vote), even if he continues to win in all states.

Have the Super Tuesdays ever been as uncontested as this year’s?

This year is the exception. Super Tuesday has seen fierce battles, as in the 2008 Democratic primaries, when Barack Obama won in 13 states and Hillary Clinton in 10. The number of delegates was a dead heat: 847 to 834. On the Republican side, with 21 states at stake, John McCain took nine states that year; Mitt Romney won in seven, and Mike Huckabee, in five. In 2016, there was also excitement in both parties. In the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won 7 states (486 delegates) to Sanders’ 4 (321 delegates). And on the Republican side, Trump won in seven of the 11 states, but only managed 256 of the 600 delegates up for grabs. In 2020, Biden won in 10 states and won 726 delegates, but Bernie Sanders won in four others, including California, and won a total of 505 delegates.

Have any other candidates run after leaving office, as Trump has now?

Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since Herbert Hoover tried in 1940 without success. If he wins the Republican nomination, he will be the first Republican to be nominated three times since Richard Nixon (nominated in 1960, 1968 and 1972), and the first person to be the Republican presidential nominee in three consecutive elections. If he were to be nominated and win the election, he would be the first non-consecutive-term president since Grover Cleveland, who won his second term in 1892.

What comes next?

On the Republican side, Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington State vote on March 12, followed a week later by Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio. After that, there will still be about twenty states left to vote, the last ones on June 4, but everything will be already decided. In the Democratic primaries, the same states vote on the same dates, with the exceptions of Hawaii, which votes in April, and Florida, which has cancelled the primaries because Biden was the only candidate.

After Super Tuesday, there will be 132 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 167 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 245 days until the presidential election on November 5.

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