Trump says he’ll deport criminal migrants first, but who is he referring to?

Although details of Donald Trump’s ambitious deportation plan remain scarce, the president-elect has clearly stated that he will prioritize expelling undocumented migrants who have been convicted of crimes and those with existing deportation orders. However, it is less clear who exactly he is referring to. During his election campaign, Trump cited various statistics to promote the notion that Joe Biden’s administration had opened the floodgates to criminals, and allowed them to enter the United States, often from foreign prisons — an argument used to support his mass deportation plans.

On several occasions, Trump claimed that 13,000 undocumented murderers are roaming the country. The reality, however, tells a different story.

“These are people who have been convicted of murder in the last 40 or 50 years, and that means is that there are 13,000 individuals who are not in immigration custody,” explained Alex Nowrasteh, vice president of economic and social policy studies at the CATO Institute. “This means they are either incarcerated, deported from the U.S., or deceased — these are not people who are roaming around the country at large.” Nevertheless, because they are not held in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities, the assumption persists that they are wandering the streets.

The narrative that undocumented migrants pose a significant threat to public safety was pivotal in garnering voter support for Trump’s stricter immigration policies. Approximately half of the U.S. population supports mass deportations.

However, statistics reveal a different picture: undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than both documented immigrants and U.S.-born citizens. Texas is the only state that differentiates between these groups in its criminal data, making it a key reference point for researchers nationwide. When Texas law enforcement arrests someone, they determine the individual’s place of birth and citizenship status. Fingerprints of detainees are sent to the Department of Homeland Security, which confirms their immigration status.

Between 2012 and 2018 in Texas, the overall arrest rate for violent crimes was 213 per 100,000 for U.S.-born citizens, compared to 96.2 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants. According to data collected by the CATO Institute, in 2022, 1,336 people were convicted of homicide in Texas. Of these, 1,209 were native-born Americans, 67 were undocumented immigrants, and 60 were legal immigrants. Despite making up 7.1% of Texas’s population in 2022, undocumented immigrants accounted for only 5% of homicide convictions. The trend is similar for other crimes such as assault, sexual assault, robbery, theft, and arson, with crime rates among undocumented immigrants consistently lower than those of U.S.-born citizens. Even in the case of drug-related offenses, undocumented immigrants are less than half as likely to be arrested as native-born citizens.

One reason for this is rooted in the high stakes faced by undocumented immigrants. After risking their lives on arduous journeys, braving jungles, deserts, and gang violence, they are unlikely to jeopardize their tenuous foothold in the United States by committing crimes. “They are afraid of being arrested, so they do not commit crimes,” explains Nowrasteh.

Most studies treat migrants as a uniform group regardless of whether they are in the country legally or not, with Texas being the exception. As a group, migrants have had lower incarceration rates than native-born citizens for over 150 years. This trend has become even more pronounced since 1960, with immigrants today being 60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born citizens, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Cities that have welcomed more undocumented migrants provide further evidence that increased migration does not lead to a rise in crime. In New York, Chicago, and Denver, which have seen significant influxes of migrants, homicide rates have actually decreased. Similarly, Texas border counties report lower violent crime rates than both the state and the national average, according to analysis by crime expert Jeff Asher, cited by The New York Times.

Traffic fines, not murders

The rhetoric Donald Trump has used to demonize undocumented migrants, frequently labeling them as “murderers” and “rapists,” does not align with the type of crimes they most commonly commit. According to ICE data, most offenses involve minor infractions, such as traffic violations or driving under the influence, rather than violent crimes.

The U.S. is home to an estimated 11 to 13 million undocumented immigrants, 90% of whom have no criminal record. Nearly five million U.S. children have at least one parent with irregular immigration status. Angela Kelley, senior advisor to the American Immigration Council, paints a contrasting picture: “The 11 million who live here without status have resided in the United States for an average of 16 years. More than two-thirds live with a U.S. citizen, such as a spouse or child. They are not accidental tourists. They have put down roots, not robbed banks. It is bad policy and harmful to the United States to confuse people with criminal records with people who lack documents.”

Trump has pledged to begin deporting undocumented immigrants with criminal records on his first day in office. But during Trump’s first term, when his administration enforced the infamous “zero tolerance” policy at the border — resulting in the traumatic separation of families — his interior deportations focused more on migrants who crossed the border illegally rather than those convicted of crimes. CATO data confirms that Trump’s deportation policies were not primarily directed at violent offenders.

In contrast, the Biden administration has matched Trump’s first-term deportation numbers but prioritized individuals with criminal convictions. Under Biden, two million migrants entered the country in 2021, the largest number on record, with 60% being undocumented. This influx, however, did not result in higher crime rates; instead, crime declined. Recent asylum restrictions introduced by Biden have also contributed to a reduction in illegal border crossings.

While Trump plans to start with criminals, his broader immigration strategy targets all undocumented immigrants, a vague and sweeping definition. This includes groups such as Central Americans in the Temporary Protection Program (TPS), who were granted asylum to escape extreme violence, and the Dreamers, individuals who came to the U.S. as children. Although Trump has softened his stance on Dreamers and expressed interest in reaching a bipartisan agreement, many question his sincerity.

David Leopold, legal counsel for America’s Voice, warned: “Trump’s mass deportation plan will target hardworking immigrants who have been here for years, raised children, enriched the fabric of our communities, but are prevented from obtaining U.S. citizenship because of Congress’s decades-long failure to fix immigration law. Trump talks tough about deporting violent criminals but, as we saw during his first four years in office, he will deport anyone he can get his hands on.”

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