Most Americans support mass deportation after Donald Trump’s win

Donald Trump secured a decisive victory in the November 5 elections, with a plan to mass deport migrants serving as the centerpiece of his campaign. His popular support has remained strong as his immediate actions indicate he intends to transform his campaign promises into reality and that he will enact one of the harshest immigration policies in recent decades.

This support is reflected in two recent polls, which reveal that a majority of Americans back the deportation of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants residing in the United States. A poll published Sunday by CBS, conducted by YouGov, found that 57% of respondents support what would amount to the largest deportation effort in U.S. history, while 43% disapprove. Similarly, a poll conducted by Ipsos and Scripps News after the election showed 52% of respondents in favor of mass deportations. Among Republicans, support is even higher, with 85% approving of the deportation plans.

However, the Ipsos poll, conducted among 1,031 citizens between November 15 and 17 with a margin of error of 3.3 points, revealed that support decreases significantly when the potential consequences are considered. If deportations result in family separations, support drops by 14 points, with only 38% of respondents still in favor. While a majority of Republicans (68%) continue to back the policy in such circumstances, only 40% of independents and about 10% of Democrats would approve of the measure. The specter of family separations is not theoretical; during Trump’s previous term, dramatic instances of parents being forcibly separated from their children were routine.

The likelihood of such events happening again has been reinforced by Trump’s selection of hardliners to lead immigration policy. Tom Homan, the incoming “border czar,” previously served as head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), where he was a key architect of the infamous “zero tolerance” policy. Under that policy, thousands of migrants were deported without regard to whether it meant separating families, leading to situations of children being separated from their parents. In recent statements, Homan indicated he plans to avoid similar situations by deporting entire families.

Stephen Miller, another staunch advocate of restrictive immigration measures, is also returning to Trump’s inner circle. Miller, who played a significant role in shaping immigration policy during Trump’s first term, will serve as Deputy Chief of Staff at the White House, overseeing immigration policy.

Even before the election, polls indicated a shift to the right on immigration among the American public. The annual American Values Survey, conducted in August by Brookings and the Public Religion Research Institute, found the support for undocumented migrants who arrived as children, known as the Dreamers, had declined for the first time since 2018. Only a slim majority of Americans (52%) supported granting them legal resident status, down from 62% six years earlier.

Dreamers are also in Trump’s sights. During his first term, he sought to dismantle the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which protects Dreamers from deportation.

Economic impact

Economists have warned about the negative impact a mass deportation operation could have on the U.S. economy. The estimated 11 million undocumented individuals living in the country work, consume, and pay taxes. Their expulsion would ripple through the economy, affecting the rest of the population.

Public support for deportations drops when these economic consequences are considered. According to the Ipsos survey, support falls to 48% if deportations negatively impact Social Security and Medicare. Undocumented workers contribute significantly to these programs — $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare annually, according to the American Immigration Council — despite being ineligible for their benefits. Removing these contributions would strain the finances of these essential public services, and this would impact support for the deportation policy.

The labor market also plays a crucial role in shaping public opinion. The deportation of undocumented workers would leave many jobs unfilled, particularly in industries where American citizens are often unwilling to work, such as hospitality, agriculture, and personal care services. In this scenario, support for deportations drops further to 47%. Additionally, economists warn that such a policy could drive inflation higher, in which case public approval drops to 43%.

The CBS poll, conducted among 2,232 citizens between November 19 and 22 with a margin of error of 2.3 points, further illustrates how public sentiment shifts depending on the specifics of deportation plans. While Trump has offered few details about the proposed operations, his suggestion that the military might play a role is unpopular. A majority, 60%, believe the military should not be involved in such efforts.

Despite these reservations, the polls also reveal strong overall support for prioritizing deportations. According to CBS, 73% of respondents view deportations as a high or medium priority for the incoming administration, with only 27% considering it a secondary issue.

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