Trump lost the Latinos. The Democrats have yet to find them

Once again, the political future of the United States is tied to the Latino vote. It used to happen every four years, during presidential elections, when the parties would remember that Latinos represent 15% of the national electorate and start courting these communities with messages tailored to their tastes and cultural preferences. Joe Biden did not understand it, but Donald Trump did. Now it is happening again ahead of midterm elections that are crucial both for the survival of the MAGA project and for the salvation, or the impetuous decline, of American democracy.

Trump’s message in 2024 was essentially the same as in his earlier campaigns: being tough on crime, closing the borders, and carrying out mass deportations, upholding traditional values and policies against cultural and gender diversity (antiwokism), but, above all, curbing inflation and producing a strong economy. It was on this latter promise that he defeated Kamala Harris.

In 2016, when he took office promising a “big, beautiful” wall to stop the alleged rapists and criminals from crossing the southern border, Trump was still not well known among Latino communities. But after Biden’s policy of open borders, post-Covid inflation, and an intense campaign to criminalize migration, the message finally gained traction. Latinos rewarded him. In 2024, Trump gained 12 points compared with 2020 by capturing 48% of the Latino vote at the national level, propelled by Latino working-class men and border communities in Texas.

A year and a half after his return to the White House, that support has eroded considerably.

The trigger was the criminalization of Latin American migrants. Many members of the Latino working class, who naïvely believed the president would only deport criminals, have been witnesses and victims of ICE’s brutal raids, a veritable hunt for humans that makes no distinction between criminals and honest people. These raids have not only destroyed families and communities; they have also directly impacted employment in agriculture, the food industry, and construction. A survey by Equis Research Center, released in March, showed that 62% believed Trump was trying to deport as many people as possible. The survey also found that 65% considered his immigration policy “goes too far.”

The other factor is the economy. Latinos make up one of the most dynamic and booming groups in the country. But when a Latino loses his job as a day laborer, goes to the supermarket, or fills up the tank, he can see that Trump is not on his side. It is not surprising that 67% of Latinos disapprove of his management. Even among those who voted for him in 2024, just 66% maintain their support. That represents a drop of nearly 27 points since January 2025, according to the Pew Research Center. What’s really surprising is that the Democrats have not capitalized on that discontent.

Latinos know that historically they have been used by both parties as an electoral tool. Later they are ignored again until the following campaign. It makes sense that many feel disaffection for politics. They represent millions of voters who fail to find attractive options in either one of the two parties. In fact, 71% said they had seen no political advertising in Spanish over the last year. This lack of investment and communication deepens the disconnect, and suggests that neither party is putting in the necessary work to win over this orphaned electorate.

This partly explains why those who have abandoned Trump have not jumped the fence toward the Democrats at the expected rates. The Republican pollster and strategist Mike Madrid talks about a “de-alignment” that is making Latinos increasingly less loyal to partisan franchises. It’s easy to see why: they are politically adrift, lacking proposals at a time of enormous uncertainty.

Can Republicans and Democrats change that sentiment three months ahead of the November 3 midterms?

The answer is not obvious. Latinos can tip the scales in the race for the Senate in at least six states: Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. They will also be decisive in dozens of districts to define control over the House, such as the 4th Congressional District of Washington State.

This is a rural, farming district, traditionally conservative. It is home to Yakima County, where Latinos represent over 50% of the population. Many of them are laborers at local farms. Trump won here comfortably in 2024, but his migration policies have had a devastating effect. Farmers are having more and more trouble finding workers due to the fear created by ICE raids.

Even so, Trump has endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who has declared herself a member of the MAGA movement. Her rival will be the Democrat John Duresky, an Air Force veteran who lost his job at the Hanford Site (a decommissioned nuclear production complex) due to cuts enacted by DOGE, a program introduced by Trump and implemented by Elon Musk.

Both candidates see an opportunity in Yakima. But while McKinney backs MAGA’s nationalist and anti-immigrant vision, Duresky must have understood that the battered Latino community could get him into Congress. “We have got to find a way to communicate in these rural areas, and we’ve got to run like they matter to us,” he told NPR. Perhaps unwittingly, he was describing the need to align expectations and proposals, the problem underscored by Mike Madrid.

Although the Democrats have a noticeable advantage right now in the race for the Senate in several key states, nothing guarantees that they will manage to win in Michigan and Wisconsin, which are also indispensable to control legislative power and restore the checks and balances against Trump.

Latinos are also decisive there, and yet they don’t clearly favor the Democrats either. What this indicates is that, even if most Latinos are no longer with Trump, neither are they with his adversaries.

However, not all Latinos have turned their backs on the president or are homogeneously unhappy with the MAGA agenda. In southern Texas they keep backing the Republicans on matters of border security, and they have their doubts regarding the economy. Florida remains a Republican bastion where Cuban-Americans remain solidly aligned with Trump and his candidates. Triggering a change there seems highly unlikely.

Given that distancing oneself from Trump attracts scorn and amounts to political suicide, it is hard to imagine that Republicans will use these midterms to do so, even if it entails assuming long-term costs such as losing the 2028 presidential election. Besides, Trump seems increasingly less interested in anything that is not tied to increasing his own personal wealth and glory.

The Democrats have an open window among Latinos in many other places. A survey by UnidosUS found that one in five Latino voters is still undecided about November.

What would it take to consolidate the Democratic shift and renewed political enthusiasm among the grassroots observed in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and, more recently, the primaries in Michigan?

Despite the victories by the progressive wing with Zohran Mamdani in New York and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, many Democrats still prefer a pragmatic agenda focused on immediate needs.

And so do most Latino voters. If the alpha of this agenda is rejection of the immigration policy, the omega should be the search for solutions and fixes for the economic crisis. Latinos are still complaining that they feel excluded from policies that affect them directly.

If I were a Democratic strategist, there are three things that I would do.

First, I wouldn’t talk about ICE raids merely as a human rights issue but also touch on their economic consequences. In Yakima, a predominantly conservative county, Duresky will not be able to win through moral indignation alone. He needs to remind voters that if the harvest rots due to a lack of workers, everyone’s life will be worse.

Second, I would secure the pragmatic, moderate-tone candidates in the districts where the Latino vote is decisive — like Rubén Gallego in Arizona and James Talarico in Texas — and would let the progressive wave led by Mamdani and El-Sayed wage its own battles in the big cities. The Democrats cannot afford to deepen an internal ideological war that would further separate Yakima from Detroit or southern Texas.

Third, I would immediately invest in political ads in Spanish with specific policies that connect with Latino voters. Those 71% of Latinos who have not seen a single ad represent an enormous segment of the electorate that is still completely abandoned.

Although it’s not likely that anyone will adopt it, I would say that Republicans also have a way to recover part of the terrain they have lost because of Trump: tone down the raids. It is an operational adjustment that would allow them to prevent a suicidal break with the president. But for that, border czar Tom Homan and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin would have to believe that there is political life after November, or after Trump. The former is probable. The latter, at least for them, seems impossible.

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