Encounter between the eagle and the dragon

Two diametrically opposed empires, each with a leader of antagonistic character, are seeking to prevent the flames of a world in transition from erupting into an uncontrollable conflagration at a meeting in China. Six months ago, when the summit was planned, Donald Trump had not yet been drawn into the Iranian quagmire by Netanyahu, a war that is rapidly weakening him both within and outside the United States. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has reinforced his image as a serious leader of a China that offers stability and trade to further fuel globalization.

Iran has become the key to the game that will be played in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. China doesn’t mind providing Trump with the stage and the spectacle of the supposed victory he wants to use to withdraw from Iran, as long as the substance of the deal serves the interests of the Middle Kingdom.

Venezuela, Panama, Cuba… Xi has remained calm while the U.S. military or pressure from Washington deprived him of some of his main allies in Latin America. The case of Iran is different, because it encompasses China’s strategy in the Persian Gulf, where it not only buys oil and gas, but also exports enormous quantities of its manufactured goods. Beijing wants the Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible, not because of pressure on Iran, but because the United States will end the war and cease all hostilities.

The dragon intends for the eagle to take flight from the Middle East, and Trump’s colossal blunder is a significant step toward the region’s reconfiguration. China’s efforts to get Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations in 2023 also serve this strategy.

Although China is becoming a military superpower capable of manufacturing cutting-edge weaponry, its pragmatism leads it to reject war because of the destruction it brings. This policy has fueled its economic growth while U.S. power has been dispersed across conflicts it has never won. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Iran are prime examples. China prefers to wait and watch the enemy’s demise, although its red line is Taiwan, and it wants to convince Trump not to support the sale of an $11 billion arms package approved by Congress.

This difficult backdrop will frame the meeting between Trump and Xi. Both have shown they are arriving prepared. The U.S. has sanctioned nine companies and individuals in mainland China and Hong Kong for supporting Iran in the war; meanwhile, Beijing has ordered its companies to ignore Washington’s sanctions.

There will be other, easier issues on the table, because both sides are aware that they need economic success. These include trade disputes, export controls, and other technological, agricultural, and financial matters where they still have cards to play.

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