Another reckless attack by Trump

The military attack launched yesterday by the United States and Israel against Iran — and Tehran’s response, attempting to extend the conflict to other Middle Eastern countries such as Oman, the United Arab Emirates, or Kuwait — represents a grave episode in the current dangerous drift toward undervaluing negotiation, diplomacy, and international law as tools for resolving conflicts. In this regard, U.S. President Donald Trump, without first exhausting the diplomatic route, has once again taken his concept of international relations to an extreme that could prove irreversible.

The fact that Trump, displaying a reckless attitude, has struck at the heart of a cruel theocratic dictatorship — merciless in repressing its own population, imprisoning and killing opponents, subjugating women, and destabilizing the region by arming terrorist groups, in addition to running at least an opaque nuclear program — does not justify this new disregard for international law. Even the military option, if it comes to that, has established channels, such as legitimate self-defense, the protection of the law, a mandate from the international community represented at the United Nations, and, specifically in the United States, awareness if not explicit approval from Congress. That has not been the case.

The declared objective of the attack is nothing less than a risky political gamble. It is no longer about preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, weakening its military structure, or reducing the economic resources that prop up the dictatorship. What is at stake is the destruction of the ayatollahs’ regime itself, relying not only on the military superiority of Israelis and Americans but also on a hypothetical mass uprising of the Iranian people — 92 million inhabitants — who have been protesting for months and facing violent repression by the Islamic authorities. Such was the call made explicit just hours after the attack by Trump himself, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah of Iran, who also urged the Iranian armed forces to turn their backs on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A popular uprising — in the face of a dictatorship entrenched in power for 47 years, focused on its own survival, and which has repeatedly shown how far it is willing to go in its cruelty — could end in a bloodbath.

It is unwise to minimize the reaction of a fanatical regime that sees itself cornered, and, in this regard, the bombing of the palace of Iran’s Supreme Leader as well as the death of the Defense Minister and the head of the powerful Revolutionary Guard are unequivocal signs of the willingness of Americans and Israelis to bring down the ayatollahs’ government. For the moment, and following the mass-control playbook of any tyranny, the Islamic regime has cut off communications for its citizens while official propaganda urges them to remain calm — propaganda rejected by those stockpiling water and food. Moreover, the entire region could be pushed into a war stretching from the Mediterranean to the Strait of Hormuz — not to mention that Afghanistan and Pakistan have also officially been at war since Friday — with unpredictable consequences.

It is urgent to return, before it is too late, to channels that allow for a diplomatic solution to a situation that has the potential to escalate into total war. Washington was negotiating with Tehran just hours before the attack, and those talks must not only be resumed but also accompanied by the international community. It is imperative that the world map not continue to be marked by uncontrolled steps toward open war — nor that recourse to arms become normalized as just another negotiating tool.