The Strait of Hormuz after six months of war: Blockades, drones and the shadow fleet

Six months have passed since U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began launching missiles at Iran, a conflict that has disrupted some of the world’s main trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, 20% of the hydrocarbons and fertilizers consumed globally reached international markets through the strategic waterway. Half a year later, despite negotiations and agreements, traffic is far from returning to normal.

But the crucial passage is not fully closed, contrary to what both the United States and Iran claim with their respective blockades: using tactics associated with the so-called shadow fleet, shipping companies on both sides are risking vessels and crews to keep trade flowing.

“We are essentially at a stalemate. There is no clear military, political or diplomatic solution in sight, and I don’t think anyone can say with certainty how traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal,” says Dimitris Maniatis, chief advisor at consultancy Marisks, in comments to EL PAÍS. “Traffic can rise or fall from one week to the next, but volumes remain well below usual levels. We have moved from an acute crisis to a prolonged period of risk. As a result, the shipping sector has begun adapting to the crisis rather than waiting for it to end.”

Before the war, an average of 130 ships passed through these waters each day in either direction. Today, that figure has fallen to fewer than 20 vessels a day. After the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June, there were a few weeks when traffic climbed above 60 vessels a day, raising hopes of a swift recovery in trade. But after Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over in early July following an Iranian attack on several ships, the situation returned to crisis levels.

Iran has tightened its blockade at the narrowest point of the Strait of Hormuz and periodically launches projectiles or naval drones at some of the vessels that venture through those waters without seeking permission from the Revolutionary Guard. The United States, for its part, has reimposed its blockade in the Gulf of Oman and is attempting to stop all ships bound for, or departing from, Iranian ports.

The shadow fleet

To bypass both blockades, shipping companies are effectively forcing their vessels to go dark. They do so by switching off the transponders that transmit their location to the Automatic Identification System (AIS), or by falsifying those signals, practices prohibited under international maritime regulations except in cases of extreme danger, such as sailing through pirate-infested waters.

It is a tactic that Western countries have long accused nations such as Russia and Iran of using to conceal shipments and evade sanctions, but one that is now also being employed by European and Gulf shipping operators to bypass Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by navigating through Omani territorial waters along a route protected by the U.S. Navy.

For example, maritime intelligence company Windward detected that last Tuesday six oil tankers entered the Persian Gulf and another departed for the Indian Ocean using the route through Omani waters. All seven vessels did so with their AIS systems switched off.

These tankers are part of a new strategy Arab countries are using to export their production. Large crude carriers pass through the Strait of Hormuz and then transfer their cargo to vessels anchored off the ports of Fujairah and Sohar, in the Gulf of Oman. On August 25 alone, the tracking platform TankerTrackers.com recorded 15 ship-to-ship transfers involving roughly 25 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products originating from countries along the southern and western shores of the Persian Gulf.

“Gulf states have become increasingly innovative in finding ways to keep exports flowing, using alternative terminals and pipelines, shuttle tankers, ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman,” says Maniatis. He adds that these new methods have attracted Greek shipowners (with a long tradition of evading blockades since the Napoleonic Wars). “That does not mean they consider the Strait of Hormuz safe. Rather, the industry is learning to operate with the risk present, separating different parts of the transport chain and assessing each voyage individually,” he explains.

But these voyages are dangerous. On Monday, the tanker Metro Venetian, operated by Metrostar, received a direct hit from a projectile. Although none of the crew members were injured, the strike damaged the engine room and forced the vessel, carrying more than 700,000 barrels of jet fuel, to put in at the Emirati port of Fujairah. During the night from Wednesday to Thursday, another tanker, this one Kuwaiti-owned, was struck by what is believed to have been a naval drone. The impact sparked a fire that was later extinguished without any loss of life.

In total, more than 70 commercial vessels have been attacked since the start of the war or hit by projectiles fired by one side or the other, resulting in the deaths of 20 seafarers, according to figures from the International Transport Workers’ Federation. The organization has repeatedly condemned attacks on commercial shipping and reminded shipping companies that crews have the right to refuse to sail through a “war zone” such as this one. Iranian labor unions add that at least 54 sailors, dockworkers and fishermen have been killed in U.S. and Israeli attacks along Iran’s coastline.

New route?

In response to Trump’s “economic warfare,” which includes a new round of sanctions, Iran on Sunday added 45 tankers to a “blacklist” for “violating” Iranian rules, according to the Persian Gulf Strait Port Authority, a body controlled by the Revolutionary Guard. The authority warned shipping companies not to charter the vessels, saying they could face “fines, detention and confiscation” of their ships.

Most of the vessels sanctioned by Iran belong to private Greek shipping companies and to state-owned operators from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia involved in the strategy of transporting oil out of the Persian Gulf and transferring it to other ships in the Gulf of Oman. “Any vessel participating in ship-to-ship transfers with the aforementioned ships may also be added to the blacklist,” the Iranian port authority warned.

“If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf. Iran will regard any country’s participation in or support for America’s economic war against the Iranian people as an act of war,” said Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

The Islamic Republic argues that, under the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding, responsibility for managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rests solely with Iran and that every transit must therefore receive explicit authorization and take place through Iranian waters. By contrast, the central shipping lane designated decades ago by the International Maritime Organization for commercial traffic is barely being used because of its proximity to Iranian waters and the danger posed by mines laid by Iran. Trump has claimed that U.S. forces have cleared the area of explosive devices, but allied countries remain skeptical of those claims.

The situation could nevertheless evolve in the coming days or weeks, as Iran has announced that it is close to concluding negotiations with Oman over the future management of the strait, another point included in the June memorandum.

According to Qatar, which is also involved in the talks, the agreement would reunify the shipping routes and establish a joint corridor, at least on a temporary basis. But it remains unclear how Washington would respond to such a deal, particularly after Trump last week threatened to “bomb the shit out of” Oman when reports emerged of progress in the negotiations.

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