Trump threatens Colombia’s key trade and security alliance

Colombia is facing the imminent imposition of tariffs by the United States. On Sunday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, said he had spoken with Trump, who confirmed he will announce on Monday the tariff rates to be applied to imports. Colombia is particularly vulnerable to this decision, as it is one of the few in Latin America that still counts the United States as its main trading partner.

Colombia also faces a new threat to its anti-narcotics efforts, as Trump on Sunday put on hold aid aimed at combating drug-producing groups, originally set at $413 million. The Republican accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of being an “illegal drug leader,” in what marks a new crisis in an especially volatile year for Colombia.

Colombia, by far the world’s largest cocaine producer, has been a U.S. ally on multiple fronts for decades. At the end of the 20th century, Colombia, under siege from the FARC guerrillas, persuaded Washington to fund its counterinsurgency efforts. This support was part of the U.S.’s decades-long war on drugs, following FARC’s increasing involvement in the lucrative illegal drug trade.

Since 2000, the United States has financed a genuine transformation of the Colombian Armed Forces under the so-called Plan Colombia. This effort resulted in expanded troop numbers, the creation of more specialized units to combat small and mobile guerrilla groups, strengthened air capabilities, and enhanced intelligence — all accompanied by funding to promote and protect human rights.

The U.S. maintained support during the two terms of right-wing president Álvaro Uribe (2002–2010), who managed to push back the FARC while negotiating a free trade agreement that further integrated the economies of the two countries. Later, under liberal-leaning Juan Manuel Santos (2010–2018), the U.S. continued to pressure the Colombian government while Santos achieved a historic peace agreement with the FARC in 2016.

However, while U.S. backing was crucial in shifting the armed conflict in favor of the state, it was less successful in reducing drug trafficking, which according to recent estimates accounts for 4.2% of Colombia’s GDP.

Trump’s announcement to suspend support for Colombia’s anti-narcotics efforts and freeze all international aid funds only deepens a crisis that began with his rise to power and the dismantling of the U.S. aid agency, USAID. Colombia is already the Latin American country most affected by this decision, as it previously received 26% of all aid to South America. It has also been impacted by cuts in European cooperation funds and by the international system’s shifting focus to other priorities.

The hope had been that U.S. cooperation on issues of national interest to Washington, such as drug trafficking, would continue and support other sectors. That now remains in limbo — hardly surprising after the Trump administration’s decision last month to decertify Colombia’s anti-narcotics efforts. In a country where conflicts are multiplying, armed groups financed by this and other illegal economies are growing, and fiscal pressure is increasing, the loss of these funds represents a major challenge.

Beyond the immediate impact of Trump’s decision to suspend support for Colombia’s anti-narcotics efforts, the threat of a commercial retaliation also looms, echoing the trade tensions that nearly erupted after another clash between the two leaders in January. A tariff increase would be particularly significant for Colombia, as the economy is highly dependent on international trade and counts the United States as its main trading partner: in 2023, the U.S. accounted for 27% of Colombia’s exports and 26% of its imports. In contrast, for the U.S., Colombia is nearly negligible: in the same year, it represented just 0.55% of U.S. imports and 0.89% of exports, according to the United Nations Trade Commission.

In January, when Trump and Petro came close to declaring a trade war with bilateral tariffs of 25%, the Colombian president framed the potential consequences as an opportunity. “The Ministry [of Commerce] should help redirect our exports to countries other than the United States. Our exports must expand… U.S. products whose prices rise domestically should be replaced by national production, and the government will support this effort,” he wrote on X.

The tariffs, however, never materialized. Four months later, Colombia officially joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a concrete step signaling a distance from its traditional alignment with the United States. Indeed, the U.S. State Department indicated it would oppose funding for China-led projects in Colombia, such as Bogotá’s subway system, reflecting the unease created by Colombia’s apparent realignment. This was before the two countries clashed over U.S. military attacks on at least seven vessels in the Caribbean.

Graham’s announcement on Sunday prompted reactions from Colombia’s main business associations, institutions increasingly distant from President Petro. Bruce Mac Master, president of the business federation ANDI, wrote directly to the South Carolina senator on X.

“Despite the significant differences between the presidents of the two countries, Colombia has made significant efforts for many years to combat drug trafficking,” Mac Master posted on X. “The idea of ​​​​striking the country economically doesn’t seem strategically correct. If the flow of international trade between the two countries is reduced, the only significant effect will be a significant impact on the real economy and, therefore, also on the working class and employment in our country."

He continued: “It is time to activate diplomatic mechanisms and stabilize the relationship between two countries that have been allies for more than 200 years and that face a large number of challenges.”

Graham has not responded so far to Mac Master’s comment, nor has Trump, who, after posting his diatribe against Petro, has focused on the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Colombia is bracing for what could be a severe blow to an economy growing at a slow pace, with positive developments in areas like employment but setbacks in others, such as public finances.

All this comes just a day before the verdict against former president Álvaro Uribe, a staunch right-wing opponent of Petro; less than a week before Petro’s party holds a consultation to select its presidential candidate and congressional aspirants; and as the campaign for the first-half 2026 national elections gets underway.

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