As she tries to make her mark, Claudia Sheinbaum intensifies the war on crime

Claudia Sheinbaum’s security policies have been implemented at an accelerated pace in recent weeks. There have been multimillion-dollar seizures of stolen fuel — known as huachicol — and the unveiling of a bold plan against extortion. The latter is a growing crime that affects millions of Mexicans, who are forced to pay criminals a tax on the profits from their businesses. Added to this, since her presidency began in October of 2024, are the multiple drug seizures, armed confrontations with drug traffickers, and numerous arrests.

All of these actions outline a six-year presidential term that’s trying to fix the issue that was left unresolved during the previous administration: public safety. Over the past eight months, the famous “hugs, not bullets” policy of Sheinbaum’s predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been buried under an avalanche of police and military operations that are yielding measurable results. Some citizens already speculate that the term of the first female president in Mexico’s history will be key to making progress on the country’s major unfinished business: the war on crime.

Sheinbaum based her electoral campaign on continuity. And, to a large extent, that’s what she’s doing… except in the area of security, where the distance with her political mentor López Obrador is evident on a technical and political level. Based on her experience as head of the government of Mexico City, President Sheinbaum has put forward a strategy that relies on police intelligence. She’s also brought along a key figure: Secretary of Security Omar García Harfuch, who served under Sheinbaum in the same role at the municipal level from 2019 until 2023. He’s one of the crucial figures in the fight against crime and general delinquency and his popularity is growing, alongside the results. Few dare to question the progress made against violence in the country, although they don’t attribute it entirely to domestic politics.

One of the major spurs to confront organized crime came with the threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded police effectiveness from Mexico to stop drug lords and stem fentanyl trafficking. He said that he would impose tariffs if his demands weren’t fully met. “Trump isn’t interested in the security of his country, much less that of Mexico; these are just pretexts for his economic expansionism via trade tariffs,” says Armando Vargas, from the political analysis center México Evalúa. However, he says that the Republican’s attacks have boosted the initiatives put in place by Harfuch, who is perhaps one of the most-threatened ministers of public safety in the world (in 2021, he survived an attack by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel that killed his bodyguard and left his official car riddled with over 400 bullets).

Harfuch maintains good relations with the U.S. military and the Department of Homeland Security. This is according to Sergio Aguayo, another leading specialist in the study of violence and peace in Mexico. “This is the first time that there’s no military officer in charge of security, even though [the police] collaborate with the army,” Aguayo notes. Sheinbaum has given Harfuch and his team a lot of power, which today exemplifies “the great generation of security specialists who’ve been trained in Mexico in recent decades,” Aguayo affirms.

Trump, however, hasn’t been the only factor in Mexico taking action against crime. The violent conditions that Sheinbaum inherited — and the acute perception of insecurity expressed by the public — required the redoubling of efforts. Organized crime has fragmented into hundreds of gangs, while the major cartels are bleeding and reorganizing. A struggle has resulted from the decapitation of the Sinaloa Cartel, with its top bosses — Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and two of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s sons — imprisoned in the United States.

“[Mexico] urgently required security policies to contain violence and address extortion,” Vargas affirms. Laura Atuesta, a professor at EAFIT University in Medellín and a researcher with the Drug Policy Program, shares this opinion: “Criminal groups have multiplied and diversified their activities to such an extent that a comprehensive security strategy is needed to truly attack their economic and financial structures.” She applauds that the president understands “that violence is a problem that goes beyond the homicide rate, as it has multiple facets: extortion, disappearances, fuel theft, kidnappings.”

The third factor mentioned by Vargas is that there’s an undeniable political opportunity in this attempt to curtail violence, which in Mexico is reaching levels like a country at war, with some 65 homicides per day and millions of victims of other crimes. Sheinbaum enjoys enormous popularity that hasn’t yet eroded with her exercise of power. But curiously, Vargas notes, some elites in her party — such as “the hardcore Obradoristas” — “aren’t entirely satisfied with her security strategy.” This is because it clearly breaks with the precedent set by the great leader of the ruling party — López Obrador — whose shadow is still very long.

The U.S. Attorney General’s Office recently reached an agreement with one of El Chapo’s sons, Ovidio Guzmán, to reduce his sentence for drug trafficking. This is worrying the Mexican political class. “To reach these agreements, you need to provide privileged information about criminal governance,” Vargas hypothesizes. And Mexico didn’t earn the label of narco-state for nothing. “Sheinbaum is seeking to legitimize a good administration with her security policy. [She’s trying] to build her own circle, make her mark, attract elites and respond to the grassroots,” suggests the coordinator of the Mexico Evalúa Security Program.

The president has found not only a useful political niche — the one left by her predecessor — “but also a formula that offers immediate returns [and] quick results,” Aguayo points out. “There’ve been successes and mistakes, but the progress is undeniable and measurable,” adds the specialist from the Colegio de México. “Together with the United States, Mexico has enormous firepower and intelligence… but they must also engage in attacking the [black market] economy [set up by] businessmen linked to crime, as in the case of huachicol,” he emphasizes. Economic suffocation is another one of the measures being implemented, in part thanks to the influence of the U.S. Treasury Department, which continues to sanction companies and banks that collaborate with money launderers or make other illicit transactions.

This attack on financial structures is something that Atuesta mentions as one of the keys to success in this endless fight. But she also believes that Mexico should consider “possible regulation of illicit drugs, which would curb the exorbitant profits of criminal groups, [while striking] tangible agreements with the United States on arms trafficking.” The flow of U.S. weapons strengthens cartels beyond measure and leaves a trail of death in Mexico. Finally, the expert proposes “attacking violence from different fronts, considering that the success of a security policy isn’t measured solely by a reduction in homicides.”

As Aguayo suggests, President Sheinbaum has dedicated herself to tackling crime in all its forms. Among other things, this is “because [it’s] a priority and politically profitable.” In the process, she’s managing to differentiate herself from López Obrador. According to her adversaries, the charismatic leader’s image haunts her. It’s not easy for her to disengage from him if she wants to maintain the support of her party’s base.

It’s too early to say whether public safety will be the hallmark of this presidential term, but some are already taking it for granted. So much so that many already foresee a possible successor to the president if Mexico manages to achieve what it’s been trying to do for decades: Secretary of Security Omar García Harfuch.

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