Ukraine retains only 10% of the territory it gained from Russia after losing the city of Sudzha

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced this Thursday that it has regained full control of Sudzha, the largest municipality Ukraine had conquered in the Russian province of Kursk. Images being released since Wednesday by the Russian military reportedly confirm that Kremlin troops control the urban core of Sudzha, although Ukrainian analysts and military personnel in the area claim that fighting continues on its outskirts. The fall of this town would be the Kremlin’s penultimate victory in Kursk: the next one will more than likely be the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from enemy territory they have occupied since August 2024. Ukraine only holds 10% of the conquered territory, according to reports from Moscow and confirmed by Ukrainian military analysts.

The Ukrainian General Staff had not released its long-awaited report on the situation on the front lines by late Thursday, but Deep State, Ukraine's leading war analysis agency, has reported that infantry fighting continues in the northern and western suburbs of Sudzha. Rybar, a pro-Russian group analyzing the invasion, claims the priority is to eliminate small groups of Ukrainian soldiers in the area, isolated from the rest of the contingent.

Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets opened an investigation on Thursday into visual evidence that has emerged on social media of the execution of five Ukrainian prisoners of war in Kursk by Russian fighters in recent days. Cases of Russian units killing soldiers who had surrendered have been frequent in Kursk.

Ukrainian soldiers interviewed by EL PAÍS on Monday in Sumi province, the rearguard of the operation in Russian territory, took it for granted that the withdrawal from Kursk was “a matter of days or weeks.” The Russian Ministry of Defense has reported that Ukrainian soldiers are being evacuated from their province. This is partially true because, although there is no complete withdrawal order at the moment, thousands of combatants are leaving the area, as this newspaper was able to verify on Tuesday from the border. Soldiers from the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, 15 kilometers from the Russian border, had managed to leave Russia after walking for 40 kilometers. The road connecting Sumi with Sudzha, the main logistical route for the Ukrainian army, is dominated from the air by Russian drones and artillery.

Oleksandr Sirsky, head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stated on Wednesday night that his priority is “saving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, and to do so, if necessary, maneuvering to more advantageous positions,” that is to say, retreating. Sirsky confirmed that his men were fighting in the suburbs of Sudzha and had abandoned the center of the municipality. “We will remain in Kursk as long as it is effective and necessary,” the Ukrainian army chief added.

Ukrainian special forces officer Bogdan Sigeti explained Tuesday in a video shared on social media that both the transfer of weapons and the relief of soldiers via the Sumi highway are “virtually impossible.” “The fighting is extremely tough, our men are retreating on foot, 15-20 kilometers, it’s like a horror movie,” Sigeti said, referring to the pursuit of Russian drone bombs against retreating soldiers. Sigeti added on Wednesday that the probability of being hit by a Russian drone while in a moving vehicle is 85%. A captain of the Territorial Defense Forces had estimated in an interview on Monday that the probability was 80%.

The Russian army is primarily attempting to force the complete expulsion of the Ukrainian military from its territory in a ringing operation that could lead them to reoccupy parts of Sumi province. This was acknowledged on Wednesday by Andrii Demchenko, spokesman for the State Border Guard, although he emphasized that the Russians are currently being held back. The main pressure is being exerted in the border village of Novenke, where neither side controls the situation, but where Russia is expanding its sphere of action, according to Deep State.

Zelenskiy: “Difficult situation, but under control”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy assured on Wednesday that the situation is difficult but under control: “Our troops in Kursk are fulfilling their duties. The Russians are applying maximum pressure on our fighters, but our military command is doing what must be done, saving the maximum number of lives of our soldiers.” Zelenskiy’s remarks coincided with the replacement of General Dmitry Krasilnikov as head of the Northern Operations Command, partly responsible for the Kursk offensive from Sumi.

The General Staff has emphasized that Russia is advancing rapidly this March in Kursk, largely because it has transferred some of its best regiments to the region, which were fighting on the Ukrainian front in Donetsk at least until February. Military personnel interviewed this week in Sumi by EL PAÍS confirm this and another fact highlighted by Sirski: that the enemy has outnumbered them thanks to the incorporation of some 10,000 North Korean soldiers.

Multiple military sources have added that the 10-day suspension of U.S. military and intelligence assistance ordered by Donald Trump has also had an impact on Ukraine’s defenses in Kursk. With this decision, the U.S. president sought to pressure Zelenskiy into accepting his proposal for a temporary ceasefire. After a common position was agreed upon at Tuesday’s meeting in Saudi Arabia between envoys from both countries, Trump lifted the suspension. The main effect of the suspension was the lack of satellite images of enemy movements and the lack of coordinates for attacking Russia’s rearguard.

The Associated Press reported Thursday that the Ukrainian military has apparently run out of ATACMS, the long-range missiles that former U.S. President Joe Biden authorized transferring to Ukraine toward the end of his term, including to strike targets in Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a command center in Kursk on Wednesday, where he was received by Russian Army Chief Valery Gerasimov. Dressed in camouflage, Putin said he had given the order to “liberate” as soon as possible the Russian territory where Ukrainian forces are still stationed. This territory, still under Kyiv’s control, represents 10% of what Ukraine managed to conquer in its surprise offensive on Kursk in August 2024.

Victory at Kursk will be a propaganda coup for Putin among his population. The Kremlin had also stated that it has no intention of negotiating anything with Kyiv until its soldiers leave the Russian province. A complete withdrawal from Kursk will be a serious political setback for Zelenskiy, as he has been the main backer of the operation. Officially, this incursion into Russian territory is considered a success because it has forced Moscow to reduce military assets in its offensive in Donetsk. However, the truth is that since late 2024, prominent Ukrainian officials and analysts have criticized the president, arguing that the losses have been enormous and that the nearly 30,000 soldiers who fought at Kursk should have been defending Ukrainian territory.

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