The warlike power of Chavismo

The military exercises that the Chavista regime has recently been carrying out in Venezuela represent a progressive deterrent effort displayed to its external and internal enemies, and have become particularly noticeable in the streets and in the Venezuelan media after the controversial presidential elections of July 28, in which Nicolás Maduro declared himself the winner despite not having provided evidence that he did not fraudulently defeat opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia.

The shutting off of political and electoral options has made many sectors impatient and hints are beginning to emerge about the solutions available to Maduro, which the Miraflores Palace presidential residence is taking note of. It is increasingly evident that Chavista civil-military leaders seemed prepared for a post-electoral situation like this.

The successive governments of Hugo Chávez and Maduro have made doctrinal work on the Armed Forces one of the pillars of the continuity in power of the Bolivarian revolution. Both leaders have always kept in mind the strategic nature of military spending in the country, which has been consistent despite criticism from some civilian sectors of the opposition.

The Chavista commanders have strived to expand their military forces, with the obvious growth of the National Guard and the creation of the Bolivarian National Militia, the fifth component of the armed institutions and one that is particularly ideologized as the pillar of a hypothetical armed confrontation in the internal protection of the country based on an asymmetric strategy.

Global Firepower’s 2025 Military Strength Ranking places Venezuela at 50 in the world in terms of military power, out of a total of 160 nations analyzed. It ranks seventh among Latin American nations (in recent years it has occupied fifth and sixth place), behind Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, and is in a very close bracket with the Armed Forces of Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Venezuela also ranks seventh in terms of regional military expenditure.

Over the years, some independent observers in Venezuela have questioned the consistency of the operational readiness of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB), given the deficiencies existing in the barracks in recent years and the lack of motivation resulting from the country’s socioeconomic deterioration, which has had an objective impact on the institution and has led to numerous requests for discharge in recent years.

Some military analysts — now in exile — have highlighted the insufficient results of military incursions carried out by the Venezuelan army to contain illegal mining, irregular groups in jungle areas of Amazonas state, or Colombian guerrilla organizations on the border.

However, the Maduro administration has made its relationship with Commander-in-Chief of the FANB and Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino López one of the foundations of its stability in power. Padrino López has made an enormous effort to meet the military needs of the state and contain the economic environment of military personnel.

With a force of some 150,000 regular combatants and 430,000 reservists, the FANB is noted for its Air Force, one of the best equipped in the region with 79 units in total, whose line-up includes 24 Russian Sukhoi fighters and 16 U.S.-made F-16s in addition to 23 Chinese-made Hongdu K-V units and 10 Embraer Tucano aircraft.

The national defense system has a sophisticated M1-Tor anti-aircraft missile system; 53 attack helicopters; 250 combat vehicles, and about 180 tanks, some of which are currently undergoing refitting and maintenance. The army has an inventory that includes 100,000 AK-Kalashnikov assault rifles that are already manufactured in the country.

With the entry into force of the Organic Law of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces in 2009 — which produced important internal transformations in the institution — Venezuela’s national defense incorporates, as pillars of its new organization, the strategy of the territorial defensive system, with the creation of the Strategic Regions of Integral Defense (REDI), and the Operational Zones of Integral Defense, (ZODI). On the chessboard, the Venezuelan Armed Forces monopolize the entire nation.

Chavismo fears an invasion to depose Maduro after accusations of electoral fraud. They have interpreted some messages from overseas as imminent threats. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has put them on guard, and his choice of Marco Rubio, a hawk, as Secretary of State has not helped to calm nerves. That is why the government is currently displaying all its capacity for force and all its power of intimidation.

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