How the interconnection of geopolitical crises brought down Assad in Syria
The weakening of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah has precipitated the downfall of the regime. The instability is spilling over into Iran, disrupting its nuclear plans, and into Yemen, near waters of great importance for trade
What a popular uprising unsuccessfully attempted in 2011 was achieved in 2024 by the confluence of several major geopolitical crises. The sudden collapse of the dictatorial regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria is a striking example of the interconnectedness of the upheavals shaking up the world. Its downfall has come about from the weakening — on two different but interconnected fronts — of its main allies. Russia is suffering the enormous wear and tear of its invasion of Ukraine. Iran and Hezbollah have been weakened by Israel’s blows in its reaction to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
Iran, as is well known, provides important military support to the Kremlin in its illegal offensive in Ukraine. Both kept the Assad regime on its feet for years. All three were part of a heterodox galaxy of regimes closing ranks in an attempt to reshape the world order in a way more favorable to their own interests. China is the biggest supporter of both Russia, by means of the injection of essential commercial oxygen, and of Iran, from which it buys large quantities of oil, circumventing U.S. sanctions. But the Assad regime was completely rotten, and a greatly weakened Russia and Iran could no longer sustain it. Its adversaries — a mix of actors that includes radical Islamists and militias backed by Turkey — understood all this perfectly.
The recent events will have enormous geopolitical consequences that may seem regional at first glance, but which in reality have a global reach. First, because it breaks the territorial continuity of the “Axis of Resistance.” Tehran was able to count on a fluid projection to the Mediterranean thanks to an Iraq in the hands of Shiite factions, Assad’s Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The issue complicates the supply capacity of the Lebanese Shiite militia. Second, because it affects the projection in the region of Russia, which had air and naval bases in Syria thanks to the total complicity of Assad. And, in addition, it moves the ground from under the feet of other members of the “Axis of Resistance.”
These premises outline perspectives of global interest. The first is the new incentive for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons given its obvious situation of weakness. This path would be extremely worrying, and even more so considering that Donald Trump will soon be in the White House; during his first term, Trump withdrew from the nuclear pact sealed by Obama, and he does not seem to be emerging as a particularly stable manager of this situation.
The second place to keep in mind is Yemen, another unstable country where the Houthis, members of the weakened Axis, could suffer the consequences of the changing balance of power in the region. Its position on a strategic maritime route gives global relevance to this instability, with China as a particularly interested player, since many of its exports go through there, added to the fact that its economy is losing steam.
The region is in an interregnum. The U.S. does not have the influence that it had at other periods in time. Its actions — from the illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003 to its deplorable support for Israeli military operations — and its need to focus on other fronts have eroded its projection in the region in recent decades. But it is foreseeable that Trump will give strong support to Israel’s colonizing plans and to an understanding between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Russia is incapable of projecting influence. And a China in economic difficulties does not seem to have any interest in wasting its strength on this powder keg.
The episode is a reminder that in times of great geopolitical turbulence, changes can be unpredictable and abrupt. Regimes that seemed relatively stable can collapse in a matter of days. Situations that have been in place for decades, such as the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, can also be resolved in a matter of days. We are living in a state of profound upheaval. All actors are scanning the horizon to take advantage of imbalances and moments of instability. There are reasons to believe that the turmoil in the Middle East is not over. Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that he has a plan to reorganize the regional chessboard. He has hinted that regime change in Iran could come sooner than many expect. Time will tell. But what is clear is that the hatred he created by his barbaric reaction to the Hamas attack will not go away. It is one more element of the upheaval caused by interconnected crises.
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