Venezuela’s opposition torn between staking everything on María Corina Machado or looking for an alternative

In the coming weeks, Venezuela’s opposition faces a crucial debate that may even decide its very existence. The favorite candidate to face Nicolás Maduro in the presidential elections on July 28 is María Corina Machado, a conservative politician who has higher approval ratings than the president of Venezuela. Machado also overwhelmingly won the opposition primaries last October, with the high voter turnout seen as a sign that a wide sector of society has become discontent with the Maduro government.

However, the Supreme Court, which is controlled by the Maduro government, banned her from taking part in the presidential elections, ruling that she committed several alleged crimes that disqualify her from candidacy until 2036. The opposition are now in a tough situation, where they have no chance of winning. What should they do?

Some in the opposition are calling on Machado to step aside and allow a new candidate to run, someone who the rest of the opposition can rally behind. But Machado says that she is not willing to stand aside, arguing that Venezuelan gave her a mandate at the primaries, where she won 90% of the vote. She wants to take her political fight to the end. For Machado, she is the only possible opposition candidate.

Candidate registration will take place on March 25, and, barring a miracle, she will not be able to be on the lists. In the following months, candidates can be swapped out, added or join forces, but it is clear that Machado’s name won’t appear on the ballot. The Chavista administration has been unmovable, even though its ban on Machado is jeopardizing the oil and gold licenses the U.S. granted to Venezuela after it temporarily lifted sanctions. That is a sign of how concerned the Maduro government is at having her name on the ballot.

If the situation continues down this one-way path, the opposition could jeopardize its participation in the elections and Maduro would have a clear path to victory, as happened in 2018. That year, the Venezuelan Supreme Court prevented the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) and Henrique Capriles — who in his day was on the verge of defeating Hugo Chávez himself —from standing in the election. Maduro won the election, practically unchallenged, against Henri Falcón and Javier Bertucci.

A significant part of the opposition thought the mere act of taking part in the election gave international credibility to the very “dictatorship” they were fighting. They argued it was whitewashing, and claimed it was better to isolate Chavismo internationally and try to bring it down in the long term. An effort was made with the interim government of Juan Guaidó, supported by the White House and Europe, but the project failed. When that unprecedented diplomatic move — the creation of a parallel state that would take over from the original — faded out in 2020, Maduro remained in power.

Capriles believes that the time has come to take Maduro on at the ballot box in whatever way possible. “Of course we can present an option,” he tells EL PAÍS. “It is not about substitution, I would not speak of a substitute. Maria Corina was the one who won the primary, the issue is that the government unconstitutionally disqualified her, as it did to me. The issue is what to do, and we have to participate, appeal to the strength of the vote that can mobilize millions of Venezuelans who want a change from the Maduro government. This is the great challenge: we have to stand in the election and bet on a candidate who can channel the vote on July 28.”

Capriles is clear: it is better to opt for a different candidate than Machado than get involved in a war against Chavismo, in which the opposition has absolutely nothing to gain. “Under no circumstances can the country be left without a choice, because the fate of any country cannot be tied to one person,” says Capriles. “I am not in favor of personalities, nor of caudillos, that has done enough damage to Venezuela. We must always think that we must have unity, detachment. We must be thinking of Venezuela and Venezuelans and the great opportunity for change despite the fact that Maduro is doing everything he can to stay in power.”

Tomás Guanipa disagrees. The leader of the Justice First (PJ) opposition party believes that Machado is the only option. “What we have to do, all the opposition, all of civil society, is to give a vote of confidence to María Corina Machado. Because she has the legitimacy of having been voted for, we have to amalgamate around her,” says Guanipa, without hesitation. He argues that finding an alternative opposition candidate will lead to conflict: “Why give her an ultimatum? Without her, there is no point. The destiny of this effort is linked with her. We must join her and give her the warm support she needs to go towards the process that we have to push forward.”

The tension between these two sides cannot be avoided: they are two very different ways of facing the same political conflict. Meanwhile, in other sectors of the opposition, Luis Emilio Rondón, national leader of A New Era (UNT) party, says that his organization is committed to staying on the path to elections. With less than two weeks to go until a unitary decision has to be made, he says: “In our party, we have Manuel Rosales, one of the best presidential candidates available.” Rosales is governor of Zulia, the most important state in the country, and is not badly placed in the polls. Although he and his party are a part of the Unitary Platform opposition coalition, he has been adopting a moderate line for years. This has allowed him to coexist alongside Maduro from the governor’s office, and build unusually fluid institutional relations with the president. Rosales, who was the opposition’s presidential candidate in 2006, is not banned from running in the election, but has never publicly stated his intention to be a candidate.

Antonio Ecarri, from the Pencil Alliance, is looking for another option. He does not believe the best option is to rally around a single candidate. “Having only one candidate is a tactical and strategic error. Democracy is weakened by abstention and polarization. That will make any change much more complex,” he defends in messages.

Ecarri says he respects Machado, calling her a friend, but he downplays the results of primaries in which 10% of the population voted. While he does not doubt her leadership, he does not believe that she is the only one who can be the opposition’s candidate. “The disappointment in Chavismo and the opposition has been growing. It’s very big,” he says, which is why he believes a third way is possible. Some in the opposition criticize such messages, claiming they cause divisions in the group and work in favor of Chavismo.

The Venezuelan opposition is at a crucial moment in its history. One wrong step could turn it into ashes. It is not easy to know what step to take, given that the cards are stacked against them, and they have very little room for maneuver. The opposition has no control over institutions, everything is managed by Chavismo, which sets all the rules. But while there may be differing opinions, the common denominator is that they are not giving up: they are holding on to the slither of hope that there is still a chance to beat Maduro in the election, whoever the opposition candidate may be. Many, however, believe such a prospect is an illusion.

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