Vincent Chao of the ruling DPP party: ‘Taiwan is not easily frightened by China’s military actions’

Vincent Chao, 35, spoke to EL PAÍS on Wednesday in a crowded office at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei. The leader of the DPP, current vice president Lai Ching-te, is leading the polls to become the next president of Taiwan, the self-governed and democratic island that China considers an inalienable part of its territory and that counts on the United States as a key ally. The vote takes place on Saturday, January 13.

Chao is the DPP’s director of International Affairs and the spokesperson for Lai’s campaign. In the room, he is surrounded by stacks of boxes of what look like campaign advertising in different formats. Outside, tables are covered with posters, flags and stickers, which prominently feature the green of the party. In an adjoining room, an editing team follows Lai’s motorcade in another city on a wall of screens. These are exhausting days. The final stretch of the campaign. The tension is palpable. For Chao, the countdown to Saturday’s election brings to mind military service, mandatory in Taiwan and recently raised from four months to one year. “The worst was always the last week,” he remembers. “This final week has been like the past three months,” he says.

Chao explains why Taiwan’s elections are much more than a national election. “Unfortunately, we live next door to a neighbor that has stated that its political objective is to annex or unify Taiwan peacefully, if possible, but by force if necessary.” That, he adds, is the main driver of tensions with the Asian giant. According to Chao, China is building up its capabilities to achieve that result. “This is why our elections matter. Because we must decide on the best course of action to defend our democracy, our freedom, our way of life, to preserve the status quo in the Taiwan Strait amidst these many growing challenges.”

The party headquarters occupies three floors of the building. There’s a lot of movement. Junzhi Wu, director of the PDP’s Chinese Affairs department, climbs up the stairs quickly, with his cell phone pressed to his ear. On the ground floor of the block, a campaign headquarters has been opened that citizens can freely enter. If Lai wins the presidency on Saturday, his victory will be celebrated there. Inside, they are selling green-colored paraphernalia and there are a lot of cat references — a nod to the “cat warrior” diplomacy touted by Lai’s running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim. Before being nominated as the vice president candidate, Hsiao (who owns four cats) served as Taiwan’s representative to the United States — not the ambassador, since Washington does not officially recognize Taipei. And that experience helped her developed this theory on international relations: to survive, the territory “has to be flexible” and at the same time make it clear that “you can’t mess with them,” explains a party advisor.

For China, Taiwanese voters face a choice between “war and peace.” The DPP is China’s least preferred option. The country has described Lai — who is also known as William Lai — as a “supporter of Taiwan independence” and accused him of being “a troublemaker and instigator of war.” In Lai, China sees a continuation of Tsai Ing-wen, also of the DPP, who has ruled Taiwan for the last eight years. Her mandate has been marked by lack of communication with Beijing, growing tensions in the Strait and the island’s rapprochement with Washington.

One of Beijing’s big red lines would be a de jure declaration of independence. Chao doesn’t see it necessary. “We’re already independent. We’ve been independent for a very long time,” he says. “We have our military, our economy, our legal system, our constitution, a democratically elected government. I don’t think anyone can say that we’re subordinate to another country. The Republic of China [official name of Taiwan] is something that exists.”

Chao claims that Lai will continue Tsai’s legacy if he wins Saturday’s election. He will also “continue to signal an openness and willingness to engage in dialogue with Beijing on the basis of parity and dignity.” The DPP candidate has presented a plan with four pillars “to ensure sustainable peace.” One of the points that stands out is improving Taiwan’s defense deterrence. In the words of Chao, it is about “ensuring that war remains an unthinkable option for any party involved; and that everybody recognizes that there will be no winners in a war.”

Chao — who worked as policy director in Taiwan’s representative office in Washington, and has held various positions linked to national security and foreign affairs —explains how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has resonated on the island. “Especially among DPP supporters, I think it has reinforced the commitment that any democracy must have to ensuring their own self-defense and ensuring deterrence. For many people in Taiwan, it shows that the threat from authoritarian actors is real. It’s not just something on paper. There are real actions that are being taken today within the context of authoritarianism versus democracy, and Ukraine is on the front lines of that.”

Support for Ukraine, he continues, is “very meaningful for many Taiwanese.” The war in Ukraine, he adds, has also widened the field for Kremlin propaganda to work alongside that of the Chinese Communist Party. According to Chao, a narrative similar to the one the Kremlin used to justify the invasion — about the West being too close to its borders — is spreading in Taiwan. This narrative argues that Taiwan should address China’s security concerns, and distance itself from the United States.

The current Taiwanese government has accused China of interfering in the elections. It wouldn’t be the first time. In 1996, during the first presidential elections, Beijing fired missiles into the Taiwan Strait, but it had the opposite effect: the candidate that China did not want to win was victorious. “Taiwanese people are not easily frightened by military actions. In fact, they increase our determination to make our own decisions,” says Chao.

In recent times, Chinese interference has become “more sophisticated and complex,” he adds. There are no more overt shows of military force. Instead, China launched a satellite into space on Tuesday, and its trajectory set off alarm bells. A growing number of Chinese balloons and fighter planes are also flying through the skies near the island. In addition, says Chao, there is a disinformation strategy, “designed to polarize our society, undermine institutions and further degrade our democracy.” Taiwan also has to contend with China’s economic coercion, such as its decision to impose import restrictions on certain products, such as mangoes, which according to Chai, was aimed at affecting sectors traditionally linked to the DPP.

The election in Taiwan comes at a time of global conflict. In modern history, says Chao, there have always been three major flashpoints: Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. In the first two, disputes have broken out. “Surprisingly,” he says, the Asia-Pacific region has so far managed to avoid conflict. “Conflict doesn’t work out well for anybody. We’re committed to avoiding it.”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition