Macron moves against lame duck syndrome with appointment of Gabriel Attal

Emmanuel Macron does not want to suffer the same fate as his predecessors François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. The French president is reluctant to finish his second and final mandate with no strength or influence, while hostilities are flaring up in his entourage in the race to succeed him in 2027. The socialist Mitterrand became seriously ill and died shortly after leaving the Elysée Palace. The conservative Chirac was called the “lazy king.” By choosing the young and dynamic Gabriel Attal on Tuesday to replace veteran technocrat Élisabeth Borne as prime minister, just weeks after the immigration law divided his government and his party, it is as if the French president is saying: “I am here, I still exist!”

Macron has taken the initiative with Attal and is trying to stave off lame duck syndrome, the malady that afflicts leaders who reach the end of their reign alone and without the capacity to act. At a time when French politics is showing signs of stagnation, the appointment of the new prime minister is a coup. He is the youngest ever to hold the office at 34 and the first openly gay politician to do so — something that in France in 2024 is so accepted and natural that until now it has hardly merited comment in the press. Neither has Attal ever made an issue of his sexual orientation. He is also the most popular minister in a government in which he previously held the Education portfolio.

Who knows how long France’s honeymoon with Attal will last, but there is satisfaction, even euphoria, in the Macronist ranks after months on the defensive over the immigration law and, before that, the pension reform. Patrick Vignal, a former Socialist and now a deputy for Renaissance, the ruling party, says Attal reminds him of Macron in 2016, when the current president was starting his then-unlikely run for the Élysee. Attal is a younger version, and without the usury of power. “He breathes freshness and desire into us,” Vignal says over the phone. “It’s more than a new page. It’s a new mandate.”

Reservations from other ministers

Not everyone has been popping the champagne corks. As rumors grew on Monday afternoon that Attal would be the chosen one, several government heavyweights made their reservations known, according to French media. Bruno Le Maire, the powerful Minister of Economy and Finance, has been cited among the disgruntled, as has Édouard Philippe, prime minister between 2017 and 2020 and leader of the conservative Horizons party, attached to the Macronist bloc, and François Bayrou, eternal leader of the centrist MoDem formation. Philippe and Le Maire — like the head of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin — have something in common: the ambition to occupy the president’s chair.

Attal’s appointment may be interpreted by some as an affront, and on several levels. Due to his youth and because he too, like any politician with a minimum of talent, aspires to the summit: the presidency of the Republic. It’s not that Macron has anointed him as his dauphin: there can be many twists and turns over the next three years. What he has done is to single him out as a gifted pupil, someone who can prolong Macronism, that strange pragmatic, liberal, and Europeanist ideology, neither left-wing nor right-wing (or both left-wing and right-wing); a movement identified with a man, its founder.

And therein lies part of the problem. Macron, after two mandates, cannot run again. And there is more at stake in his succession than just the usual change of tenant in the Elysée. First and foremost is the possibility of the nationalist and populist right of Marine Le Pen coming to power. “I will do everything so that, in the five years to come, there will no longer be any reason to vote for the extremes,” he promised after his 2017 victory over Le Pen. In 2022, he defeated her again. If Le Pen wins, she will tarnish his legacy, as happened to Barack Obama when he passed the baton to Donald Trump.

Two theories

Also at stake is the future of Macronism: is it possible without Macron, or will it disintegrate as 2027 approaches? There are two theories. According to the first, Macronism, which since 2017 has contributed to breaking the hegemony of the parties of the left and moderate right, will have been a parenthesis in history. When Macron leaves, the previous status quo will return. The best guarantee to defeat the extreme right would, in this case, be a conservative candidate who would gather the maximum consensus between pro-Europeans and moderates. This would be the Darmanin or Philippe option, perhaps Le Maire as well, as all represent the center-right Republicans.

The second theory indicates that the central space built by Macron — the broad coalition that ranges from social democracy to the moderate right and that stands as a rampart against non-liberals and Euroskeptics, whether from the right or the left — was not a flash in the pan. It came to stay and Attal, a faithful Macronist born of socialism, embodies this spirit better than anyone else. Macron, in congratulating his new prime minister, spoke of “rearmament and regeneration.” And he evoked “fidelity to the spirit of 2017,” which he summed up with two words: “overcoming” the left-right divide, and “audacity.”

“Gabriel Attal is the one who can reinvent Macronism,” says Vignal. “His appointment has been a political and philosophical awakening. Attal is a locomotive.” But it will not be easy for the prime minister. If, as the polls predict, Le Pen’s National Rally wins comfortably in the European elections in June, he will have conceded a first setback. And, like his predecessor, he will govern with the main group in the National Assembly but without a majority, which will force him, like Macron, to resort to decrees or pacts with the right wing that will feed the idea that only in this sphere is there a future for Macronism.

Nor is it certain that as prime minister, Attal will be in the best position to opt for succession. Disassociating himself from Macron will surely be a requirement: Macron himself betrayed his boss, François Hollande, in order to take his place. And doing so while being his prime minister will be complicated. Appearing as the anointed one may also prove to be a problem. As journalist Ludovic Vigogne recalls in his book Les sans jours, on the bumpy start to Macron’s second term, the president “knows the precedents perfectly well.” “Neither François Mitterrand nor Jacques Chirac,” he writes, “elected the one who took up the flame after them.” And Vigogne adds: “He understands that his succession will provoke a pitched battle. It is the law of the jungle, as he says.”

The danger, of course, is that as soon as the succession battle really opens up, probably after the European elections, the lame duck syndrome will become more acute. With each passing day, the president will be less regarded in France and less obeyed by Macronists. Macron has had a taste of this with the vote against, or abstention, of dozens of Macronists for the immigration law, in addition to the resignation of a left-wing minister. “In his camp,” writes Vigogne, “the countdown that has been set in motion will force him to constantly issue reminders that he is still master of the game, and of destinies.” Naming Attal, so reminiscent of the Macron of a decade ago, is a way of slamming a fist on the table; of making it clear who’s still in charge.

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