The Ukraine war as of April 8: Dozens reported dead in new offensive in the east
Russia struck a crowded train station in Kramatorsk, killing over 30 and injuring more than 100, according to local authorities. The attack may be the start of a larger assault on the eastern Donbas region
April 8 | The battle for Luhansk and Donetsk
Dozens of people are reported dead and more than 100 injured after Russia attacked a train at Kramatorsk train station, in eastern Ukraine, where civilians were attempting to flee to safer parts of the country. The Ukrainian state railroad company said that over 30 people died in the missile strike. Ukrainian authorities had been warning residents for days to evacuate their homes because of the imminent threat of attacks.
Western Ukraine is practically free of Russian troops, and so is the northeastern region of Sumy, which Ukrainian forces said is under their control. The war has shifted to the south and most particularly to the east of the country: the Russians are concentrating their forces here with the goal of launching a major offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas of the Donbas region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The most significant fighting is taking place around Izyum, in the southwest of Kharkiv region. If Russian forces fail to secure the Izyum-Slovyansk axis, it will be difficult for them to guarantee control over Donetsk and Luhansk. said the ISW. Doing so would allow them to encircle remaining Ukrainian troops in the east. Russian forces reportedly bombed civilian infrastructure outside Kharkiv and were trying to keep Ukrainian troops there from supporting the defense in Izyum.
Russian
movements
Ukrainian
movements
City controlled
by the Russians
Russian
control
Besieged
city
Recent bombing
Recent
fighting
Kursk
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Belgorod
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Makariv
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
Lugansk
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Dnipro
Lisichansk
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Ukrianian movements
Russian movements
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
Kursk
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Belgorod
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
Sloviansk
Lugansk
UKRAINE
Lisichansk
Dnipro
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Odessa
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
Black Sea
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Russian movements
Ukrainian movements
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Kyiv
Yitomir
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lisichansk
Dnipro
Lugansk
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Mariupol
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
British intelligence reports said it remains unclear how long the Kremlin will take to reorganize its forces in the east, or how it will do so. “Many of these forces will require significant replenishment before being ready to deploy further east, with any mass redeployment from the north likely to take at least a week minimum,” said the UK Defense Ministry in a tweet.
In the southeast, Russia reportedly continued to make inroads in the city of Mariupol. The ISW said that “Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the city. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.”
April 7 | Fighting continues in the south and southeast
Russian forces continued to withdraw from the north of Ukraine. According to Ukrainian authorities, they have already left the Kyiv and Sumy regions entirely and are about to do the same in the Chernihiv region. the US Defense Department has confirmed that there are no Russian troops left around the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), retreating Russian troops are redeploying to Belarus and the Russian region of Belgorod. And in the east, “Russian and proxy forces are likely attempting to consolidate forces and material for an offensive in the coming days,” according to the ISW.
Russian
movements
Ukrainian
movements
City controlled
by the Russians
Russian
control
Besieged
city
Recent bombing
Recent
fighting
BELARUS
Kursk
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Brovary
Belgorod
Sumy
Irpin
Makariv
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
Lugansk
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Dnipro
Lisichansk
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
MOLD.
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Ukrianian movements
Russian movements
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
Russian
retreat
Russian
retreat
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Russian
retreat
Brovary
Belgorod
Irpin
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Lisichansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Mariupol
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Russian movements
Ukrainian movements
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
Russian
retreat
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
Russian
retreat
RUSSIA
Russian
retreat
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lisichansk
Dnipro
Lugansk
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Experts were expecting some Russian forces to redeploy to reinforce the Izyum-Slovyansk axis, in the northeast. From there, the Russians were trying to advance in order to encircle Ukrainian forces fighting in the eastern Donbas region. The city of Izyum may have already fallen, according to Reuters, but the fighting continued south of there in the direction of Slovyansk. According to the ISW, Russian troops have made no major advances in the last few hours, and they are being slowed down by Ukrainian forces defending the road that connects both cities. Russian troops could try to find alternative ways to advance towards the Donbas.
In the southeast, the battle of Mariupol continued unabated. Russian forces with heavy air and artillery support continued assaults on Ukrainian positions in Mariupol, said the ISW. A high-ranking US Defense Department source said that Mariupol remains isolated but that the Russians have not taken it despite sources who claim the contrary. But verified information about the city’s status is limited, said the ISW, and it is unclear how much longer its defenders will be able to hold out.
April 6 | Withdrawal in the north, fighting in the south
Russian forces stationed since February in the northern half of Ukraine continued to reposition. The withdrawal from Kyiv is largely completed and troop movement is now taking place in the Sumy region, in the northeast. The Russian town of Belgorod, located 40 kilometers (24.8 miles) from the border, remains the main concentration point for regrouping forces.
It is still unclear whether the withdrawal from Sumy will lead to a redistribution of troops or whether these will try to maintain some of their positions along this axis, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian
movements
Ukrainian
movements
City controlled
by the Russians
Russian
control
Besieged
city
Recent bombing
Recent
fighting
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Brovary
Sumy
Irpin
Makariv
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
Lugansk
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Dnipro
Lisichansk
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
MOLD.
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Ukrianian movements
Russian movements
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
Russian
retreat
Russian
retreat
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Russian
retreat
Brovary
Belgorod
Irpin
Makariv
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Lisichansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Mariupol
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Russian movements
Ukrainian movements
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
Russian
retreat
BELARUS
Chernihiv
Russian
retreat
RUSSIA
Russian
retreat
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Makariv
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lisichansk
Dnipro
Lugansk
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
“Russia has not yet committed forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv back into the fighting in eastern Ukraine,” said the ISW. And US intelligence services said that the units withdrawn from Kyiv will not be combat-ready again for some time, and could potentially be ordered to return to Russia instead.
In the east, attacks against the Donbas region continued. The ISW reported on Russian operations against the towns of Popasna and Rubiyne. Some 240 km (149 miles) to the north, in Kharkiv, there was more shelling. And troops concentrated around Izyum persisted in their attempts to reach Slovyansk. On Tuesday Russian forces captured Braykivka.
In the south, the embattled city of Mariupol continued to resist. The 160,000 or so residents who have not been evacuated are surviving without electricity, communications, medicines, heating or running water, according to the latest reports by British intelligence services. “Russian forces have prevented humanitarian access, likely to pressure defenders to surrender,” said the UK Defense Ministry in its daily update. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned on Tuesday that fighting in southern and eastern Ukraine could intensify in the coming weeks.
April 5 | Russian troops withdraw from the north
In the regions of Chernihiv and Sumy, there are barely any Russian soldiers left any more as troops continue to move north. This is partly due to the Ukrainian advance and partly to the Kremlin’s shift of strategy to focus on the eastern part of the country.
Part of these retreating forces will be redirected towards the Donbas region though not all, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which noted that Russian troops “continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk.” This is the area where Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to concentrate the war effort last week.
Active
advance
Ukrainian
counterattack
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Earlier
advance
Recent bombing
Recent combat
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Brovary
Irpin
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
MOLD.
Melitopol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Ukrainian counterattack
Russian control
Recent
combat
Recent
bombing
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Earlier advance
Russian
retreat
BELARUS
Russian
retreat
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Russian
retreat
Sumy
Brovary
Irpin
Belgorod
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Ukrainian counterattack
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent combat
Recent bombing
Russian
retreat
BELARUS
Russian
retreat
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Russian
retreat
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Dnipro
Lugansk
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Russian forces have already captured Izyum and troops are reportedly trying to encircle the Ukrainian defense in the Donbas. “Efforts by Russian forces advancing from Izyum to capture Slovyansk will likely prove to be the next pivotal battle of the war in Ukraine,” said the ISW.
In the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, the Russians failed to gain ground and continued to suffer from morale and logistical issues. This is not likely to improve despite a potential arrival of reinforcements from the northeastern front.
On the coast of the Sea of Azov, Mariupol’s defenders have been holding out for longer than most observers had expected them to. The Russians have almost reached the city center, but it is still not under their control. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians are suffering significant losses during the siege of Mariupol, The city is strategic because it could serve as a “bridge” between Moscow-controlled areas in the Donbas and the Crimea peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.
April 4 | Ukraine wins the battle for Kyiv and Russia looks east
Russian troops are reorganizing in order to focus on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, in line with the Kremlin’s new strategy. British intelligence services warned that Russian soldiers and mercenaries were moving eastward.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers that Ukraine has won the battle of Kyiv: Russian troops who had been posted near the capital ever since their swift advance from Belarus at the start of the invasion have now withdrawn from their positions on both sides of the Dnipro river. Although the main contingent has withdrawn to Belarus, leaving land mines in their trail, the withdrawal “has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian troops were left behind,” said the ISW.
Active
advance
Ukrainian
counterattack
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Earlier
advance
Recent bombing
Recent combat
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Brovary
Irpin
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
MOLD.
Melitopol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Ukrainian counterattack
Russian control
Recent
combat
Recent
bombing
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Earlier advance
Russian
retreat
BELARUS
Russian
retreat
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Russian
retreat
Sumy
Brovary
Irpin
Belgorod
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Ukrainian counterattack
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent combat
Recent bombing
Russian
retreat
BELARUS
Russian
retreat
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Russian
retreat
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izyum
UKRAINE
Sloviansk
Dnipro
Lugansk
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Despite the failed attempt to capture the capital, the war goes on and Russia still has the capacity to conduct an offensive operation in eastern Ukraine. The current line of Russian occupation in the south and the east represents significant territorial gains from what it was before the conflict began. Russia is in control of the south of Crimea and east of Donbas, and the ISW warns that “if a ceasefire or peace agreement freezes a line like the current front-line trace, Russia will be able to exert much greater pressure on Ukraine than it did before the invasion and may over time reassemble a more effective invasion force. Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv is thus significant but not decisive.”
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