The Ukraine war as of April 8: Dozens reported dead in new offensive in the east

Russia struck a crowded train station in Kramatorsk, killing over 30 and injuring more than 100, according to local authorities. The attack may be the start of a larger assault on the eastern Donbas region

April 8 | The battle for Luhansk and Donetsk

Dozens of people are reported dead and more than 100 injured after Russia attacked a train at Kramatorsk train station, in eastern Ukraine, where civilians were attempting to flee to safer parts of the country. The Ukrainian state railroad company said that over 30 people died in the missile strike. Ukrainian authorities had been warning residents for days to evacuate their homes because of the imminent threat of attacks.

Western Ukraine is practically free of Russian troops, and so is the northeastern region of Sumy, which Ukrainian forces said is under their control. The war has shifted to the south and most particularly to the east of the country: the Russians are concentrating their forces here with the goal of launching a major offensive in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas of the Donbas region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The most significant fighting is taking place around Izyum, in the southwest of Kharkiv region. If Russian forces fail to secure the Izyum-Slovyansk axis, it will be difficult for them to guarantee control over Donetsk and Luhansk. said the ISW. Doing so would allow them to encircle remaining Ukrainian troops in the east. Russian forces reportedly bombed civilian infrastructure outside Kharkiv and were trying to keep Ukrainian troops there from supporting the defense in Izyum.

Russian

movements

Ukrainian

movements

City controlled

by the Russians

Russian

control

Besieged

city

Recent bombing

Recent

fighting

Kursk

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Belgorod

Sumy

Irpin

Brovary

Makariv

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

Lugansk

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Dnipro

Lisichansk

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Ukrianian movements

Russian movements

Russian control

Besieged city

City controlled

by the Russians

Recent

fighting

Recent

bombing

Kursk

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Sumy

Irpin

Brovary

Belgorod

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

Sloviansk

Lugansk

UKRAINE

Lisichansk

Dnipro

Krivoi Rog

Donbas

Donetsk

Nuclear power plant

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Kherson

Mariupol

Odessa

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Russian movements

Ukrainian movements

Russian control

Besieged city

City controlled by the Russians

Recent fighting

Recent bombing

BELARUS

Kursk

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Sumy

Irpin

Belgorod

Brovary

Kyiv

Yitomir

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lisichansk

Dnipro

Lugansk

Krivoi Rog

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Nuclear power plant

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Mariupol

Kherson

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

British intelligence reports said it remains unclear how long the Kremlin will take to reorganize its forces in the east, or how it will do so. “Many of these forces will require significant replenishment before being ready to deploy further east, with any mass redeployment from the north likely to take at least a week minimum,” said the UK Defense Ministry in a tweet.

In the southeast, Russia reportedly continued to make inroads in the city of Mariupol. The ISW said that “Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the city. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.”

April 7 | Fighting continues in the south and southeast

Russian forces continued to withdraw from the north of Ukraine. According to Ukrainian authorities, they have already left the Kyiv and Sumy regions entirely and are about to do the same in the Chernihiv region. the US Defense Department has confirmed that there are no Russian troops left around the cities of Kyiv and Chernihiv.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), retreating Russian troops are redeploying to Belarus and the Russian region of Belgorod. And in the east, “Russian and proxy forces are likely attempting to consolidate forces and material for an offensive in the coming days,” according to the ISW.

Russian

movements

Ukrainian

movements

City controlled

by the Russians

Russian

control

Besieged

city

Recent bombing

Recent

fighting

BELARUS

Kursk

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Konotop

Brovary

Belgorod

Sumy

Irpin

Makariv

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

Lugansk

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Dnipro

Lisichansk

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Mykolaiv

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

MOLD.

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Ukrianian movements

Russian movements

Russian control

Besieged city

City controlled

by the Russians

Recent

fighting

Recent

bombing

Russian

retreat

Russian

retreat

Kursk

Chernihiv

RUSSIA

Russian

retreat

Brovary

Belgorod

Irpin

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Lugansk

Lisichansk

Dnipro

Donbas

Krivoi Rog

Donetsk

Nuclear power plant

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Mariupol

Kherson

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Russian movements

Ukrainian movements

Russian control

Besieged city

City controlled by the Russians

Recent fighting

Recent bombing

Russian

retreat

BELARUS

Kursk

Chernihiv

Russian

retreat

RUSSIA

Russian

retreat

Sumy

Irpin

Belgorod

Brovary

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lisichansk

Dnipro

Lugansk

Krivoi Rog

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Central nuclear

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Experts were expecting some Russian forces to redeploy to reinforce the Izyum-Slovyansk axis, in the northeast. From there, the Russians were trying to advance in order to encircle Ukrainian forces fighting in the eastern Donbas region. The city of Izyum may have already fallen, according to Reuters, but the fighting continued south of there in the direction of Slovyansk. According to the ISW, Russian troops have made no major advances in the last few hours, and they are being slowed down by Ukrainian forces defending the road that connects both cities. Russian troops could try to find alternative ways to advance towards the Donbas.

In the southeast, the battle of Mariupol continued unabated. Russian forces with heavy air and artillery support continued assaults on Ukrainian positions in Mariupol, said the ISW. A high-ranking US Defense Department source said that Mariupol remains isolated but that the Russians have not taken it despite sources who claim the contrary. But verified information about the city’s status is limited, said the ISW, and it is unclear how much longer its defenders will be able to hold out.

April 6 | Withdrawal in the north, fighting in the south

Russian forces stationed since February in the northern half of Ukraine continued to reposition. The withdrawal from Kyiv is largely completed and troop movement is now taking place in the Sumy region, in the northeast. The Russian town of Belgorod, located 40 kilometers (24.8 miles) from the border, remains the main concentration point for regrouping forces.

It is still unclear whether the withdrawal from Sumy will lead to a redistribution of troops or whether these will try to maintain some of their positions along this axis, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian

movements

Ukrainian

movements

City controlled

by the Russians

Russian

control

Besieged

city

Recent bombing

Recent

fighting

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Konotop

Brovary

Sumy

Irpin

Makariv

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

Lugansk

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Dnipro

Lisichansk

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Mykolaiv

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

MOLD.

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Ukrianian movements

Russian movements

Russian control

Besieged city

City controlled

by the Russians

Recent

fighting

Recent

bombing

Russian

retreat

Russian

retreat

Kursk

Chernihiv

RUSSIA

Russian

retreat

Brovary

Belgorod

Irpin

Makariv

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Lugansk

Lisichansk

Dnipro

Donbas

Krivoi Rog

Donetsk

Nuclear power plant

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Mariupol

Kherson

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Russian movements

Ukrainian movements

Russian control

Besieged city

City controlled by the Russians

Recent fighting

Recent bombing

Russian

retreat

BELARUS

Chernihiv

Russian

retreat

RUSSIA

Russian

retreat

Sumy

Irpin

Brovary

Makariv

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lisichansk

Dnipro

Lugansk

Krivoi Rog

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Central nuclear

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

“Russia has not yet committed forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv back into the fighting in eastern Ukraine,” said the ISW. And US intelligence services said that the units withdrawn from Kyiv will not be combat-ready again for some time, and could potentially be ordered to return to Russia instead.

In the east, attacks against the Donbas region continued. The ISW reported on Russian operations against the towns of Popasna and Rubiyne. Some 240 km (149 miles) to the north, in Kharkiv, there was more shelling. And troops concentrated around Izyum persisted in their attempts to reach Slovyansk. On Tuesday Russian forces captured Braykivka.

In the south, the embattled city of Mariupol continued to resist. The 160,000 or so residents who have not been evacuated are surviving without electricity, communications, medicines, heating or running water, according to the latest reports by British intelligence services. “Russian forces have prevented humanitarian access, likely to pressure defenders to surrender,” said the UK Defense Ministry in its daily update. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned on Tuesday that fighting in southern and eastern Ukraine could intensify in the coming weeks.

April 5 | Russian troops withdraw from the north

In the regions of Chernihiv and Sumy, there are barely any Russian soldiers left any more as troops continue to move north. This is partly due to the Ukrainian advance and partly to the Kremlin’s shift of strategy to focus on the eastern part of the country.

Part of these retreating forces will be redirected towards the Donbas region though not all, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which noted that Russian troops “continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture Donetsk and Luhansk.” This is the area where Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to concentrate the war effort last week.

Active

advance

Ukrainian

counterattack

Russian

control

Besieged

city

City controlled

by the Russians

Earlier

advance

Recent bombing

Recent combat

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Konotop

Sumy

Brovary

Irpin

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lugansk

Dnipro

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

MOLD.

Melitopol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Active advance

Ukrainian counterattack

Russian control

Recent

combat

Recent

bombing

Besieged city

City controlled

by the Russians

Earlier advance

Russian

retreat

BELARUS

Russian

retreat

Kursk

Chernihiv

RUSSIA

Konotop

Russian

retreat

Sumy

Brovary

Irpin

Belgorod

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lugansk

Dnipro

Donbas

Krivoi Rog

Donetsk

Nuclear power plant

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Active advance

Earlier advance

Russian control

Ukrainian counterattack

Besieged city

City controlled by the Russians

Recent combat

Recent bombing

Russian

retreat

BELARUS

Russian

retreat

Chernihiv

RUSSIA

Russian

retreat

Sumy

Irpin

Brovary

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Dnipro

Lugansk

Krivoi Rog

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Central nuclear

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Russian forces have already captured Izyum and troops are reportedly trying to encircle the Ukrainian defense in the Donbas. “Efforts by Russian forces advancing from Izyum to capture Slovyansk will likely prove to be the next pivotal battle of the war in Ukraine,” said the ISW.

In the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, the Russians failed to gain ground and continued to suffer from morale and logistical issues. This is not likely to improve despite a potential arrival of reinforcements from the northeastern front.

On the coast of the Sea of Azov, Mariupol’s defenders have been holding out for longer than most observers had expected them to. The Russians have almost reached the city center, but it is still not under their control. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians are suffering significant losses during the siege of Mariupol, The city is strategic because it could serve as a “bridge” between Moscow-controlled areas in the Donbas and the Crimea peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.

April 4 | Ukraine wins the battle for Kyiv and Russia looks east

Russian troops are reorganizing in order to focus on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, in line with the Kremlin’s new strategy. British intelligence services warned that Russian soldiers and mercenaries were moving eastward.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers that Ukraine has won the battle of Kyiv: Russian troops who had been posted near the capital ever since their swift advance from Belarus at the start of the invasion have now withdrawn from their positions on both sides of the Dnipro river. Although the main contingent has withdrawn to Belarus, leaving land mines in their trail, the withdrawal “has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian troops were left behind,” said the ISW.

Active

advance

Ukrainian

counterattack

Russian

control

Besieged

city

City controlled

by the Russians

Earlier

advance

Recent bombing

Recent combat

BELARUS

RUSSIA

Chernihiv

Konotop

Sumy

Brovary

Irpin

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lugansk

Dnipro

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

MOLD.

Melitopol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Active advance

Ukrainian counterattack

Russian control

Recent

combat

Recent

bombing

Besieged city

City controlled

by the Russians

Earlier advance

Russian

retreat

BELARUS

Russian

retreat

Kursk

Chernihiv

RUSSIA

Konotop

Russian

retreat

Sumy

Brovary

Irpin

Belgorod

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Lugansk

Dnipro

Donbas

Krivoi Rog

Donetsk

Nuclear power plant

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Active advance

Earlier advance

Russian control

Ukrainian counterattack

Besieged city

City controlled by the Russians

Recent combat

Recent bombing

Russian

retreat

BELARUS

Russian

retreat

Chernihiv

RUSSIA

Russian

retreat

Sumy

Irpin

Brovary

Yitomir

Kyiv

Kharkiv

Izyum

UKRAINE

Sloviansk

Dnipro

Lugansk

Krivoi Rog

Donbas

Zaporizhzhia

 

Donetsk

Central nuclear

Mykolaiv

MOLD.

Melitopol

Odessa

Kherson

Mariupol

Berdiansk

Sea of Azov

CRIMEA

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Black Sea

250 km

Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Despite the failed attempt to capture the capital, the war goes on and Russia still has the capacity to conduct an offensive operation in eastern Ukraine. The current line of Russian occupation in the south and the east represents significant territorial gains from what it was before the conflict began. Russia is in control of the south of Crimea and east of Donbas, and the ISW warns that “if a ceasefire or peace agreement freezes a line like the current front-line trace, Russia will be able to exert much greater pressure on Ukraine than it did before the invasion and may over time reassemble a more effective invasion force. Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv is thus significant but not decisive.”

More information