Drones and IEDs: a lethal cocktail

War and new technologies that boost the power of armies have been with us since the dawn of history. Firearms relegated the sword to museums, in World War I tanks replaced cavalry and in 1945 the atomic bomb inaugurated the age of mass destruction. In this new century another artifact has appeared which has forced generals to rethink their tactics. Nothing very sophisticated: an old bomb buried on a dusty road or placed in a bag of rubbish on the roadside, set off remotely with a cellphone or a garage-opener when enemy troops are passing. The improvised explosive devices (IEDs) popularized by the insurgents in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan are as cheap as they are lethal.

In World War II, some three percent of American deaths were caused by anti-personnel mines. In Vietnam, the figure grew to nine percent. In Iraq, it soared to 65 percent (in 2005), and a Marine general estimated that 80 percent of his troops’ casualties in Afghanistan were caused by IEDs. The Pentagon has spent $1.7 billion on neutralizing, via electronic spammers, these homemade bombs whose components cost no more than a few dollars.

Another innovation that has drastically altered the course of war are drones. These unmanned aircraft can be remotely piloted and are able to fly at great heights for long hours. The drones that operate in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Yemen, for example, are piloted from Nevada. These planes can carry sophisticated video cameras and some are armed with precision guided missiles. It is just like a play-station game, but with real consequences. Thus, American pilots direct drone attacks on Al Qaeda hideouts along the Afghan-Pakistan frontier, or kill leaders like Anwar al-Awlaki, whose truck was hit in Yemen by a missile fired from an unmanned plane. The Predator type, which is about 24 feet long and weighs just over a ton, have been used against the Islamic militias in Somalia. With the Global Hawk, the biggest of the drones, the Pentagon stealthily monitors the nuclear activities of North Korea. The smallest drones can be carried in a backpack, and in Afghanistan the soldiers are able to launch them from wherever they are, and thus gain the ability to see images of enemy positions "beyond the horizon or behind the next mountain ahead. In the last decade, the American fleet of drones has gone from 50 to over 7,000, spread over various bases in Turkey, the Seychelles, Ethiopia, Djibouti and the Arabian peninsula.

The United States is not, of course, the only country that is equipping its armed forces with drones. Many other countries have them, though few are as technically sophisticated as the American ones.

Another historical constant is that, once a technology has spread among the armed forces of the world, its civilian applications are never far behind. Many new companies now sell remote-control planes and helicopters with capacities far superior to those hitherto known. And the demand for their flying products is huge. From radio and television stations that want them to capture images of road conditions and other news from the air, to real estate agents who want to show their clients a bird’s-eye view of the properties; ecologists and zoologists who want to observe natural landscapes or wild animals; ranchers who want to watch their herds; security companies who use them for vigilance, and so on.

The bad news is that terrorists are inevitably going to take an interest in this technology. Just as inevitably, they will try to combine it with IEDs. And this is how terrorists’ explosives can travel from the ground to the air, from Afghanistan to Manhattan, or from a dusty, remote road to a stadium full of people.

Obviously this is a disturbing idea. It is unpleasant even to think about. But to put it out of our mind will not put it out of the minds of those who would like to use new technologies for their murderous ends. No problem has ever been solved by ignoring it, and this looming threat will require a lot of smart thinking and even smarter action.

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