Rubalcaba's uncertain challenge

During the conference held on the weekend, the Socialist candidate in the upcoming general elections, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, attempted to raise his party's morale. Whether or not he managed to do this, the conference could hardly provide solutions to the weaknesses that darken the Socialists' future. The preparation of their electoral slates is bringing internal divisions to the surface, as well incongruities concerning principles such as that of gender parity on management boards, the aim now being to make these obligatory not only in the public sphere but in the private one as well.

Meanwhile, the Socialist program under construction now features a series of initiatives mentioned one by one since Rubalcaba's candidacy was proclaimed, which smacks of the improvisation felt to be so typical of the government he formerly belonged to. Prime Minister Zapatero's chosen model for succession leaves little room for maneuver by which a candidate, be it Rubalcaba or any other, could project a positive image by election day in November. As a mere prime-ministerial aspirant, with no institutional responsibilities until the official start of the campaign, Rubalcaba was obliged to enhance the visibility of his moves to ensure a sufficient public presence.

The downside of this strategy is that the novelty soon wears off, while to prolong it artificially produces an effect of saturation. The political conference, then, has been more a conclave aimed at encouraging Socialist Party members, than an event with a significant external projection.

The platform on which Rubalcaba will stand come November 20 offers certain novelties, such as the unblocking of electoral slates (so that preference can be expressed for individual candidacies) and gender parity, which have nothing to do with overcoming the crisis. Some of the anti-crisis measures endorsed by the conference are uncertain — such as the pact on employment — or hard to implement. Such is the case of the proposed duty hikes on tobacco and alcohol to support public health budgets, or that of the suppression of government delegations at the provincial level to maintain spending on education. Such initiatives reveal the candidate's wish to preserve the essential services of the welfare state, which is positive. The negative side is their piecemeal, arbitrary air.

Whatever happens in the elections, the influence of this conference will certainly be limited. The Socialist Party's situation is the result of political errors committed while in power, and also of decisions such as that of not having accepted political responsibility for the party's severe defeat in the local and regional elections in May, preferring an unsatisfactorily truncated process of primaries to a proper party conference, and the unnecessary prolongation of the legislature. To reverse this situation is a titanic task, regardless of who is at the head of it. The last hope for the Socialists lies in the campaign, particularly if there are debates between the two main candidates.