Rubalcaba wins in popularity stakes, but Socialists still likely to lose battle

A Metroscopia poll for EL PAÍS has revealed that voters prefer Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba over Mariano Rajoy, yet it remains very unlikely that the Socialist Party (PSOE) will beat the Popular Party (PP) at the November 20 general elections, which were announced on Friday. If there is such a thing as a "Rubalcaba effect," it will not be enough: the conservatives still have a 14-point lead over the ruling party, practically the same as a month ago.

Besides the fact that the PSOE has run out of steam during this second term in power, there is a lack of motivation among its constituency, and left-wing voters in general, the survey reveals. Meanwhile, PP voters are determined to go to the polls in November, even if they are not particularly enthusiastic about their own candidate, Mariano Rajoy.

Rubalcaba, who was recently named the PSOE's candidate, may be better liked, but he faces the enormous challenge of trying to distance himself from the message, the agenda and the image of the José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero administration, which he himself was part of until less than a month ago, serving as interior ministry, deputy prime minister and government spokesman.

The Socialist candidate's campaign managers claim the party hit rock bottom with the May local and regional elections, and that the possibility of an absolute majority for the conservatives might be enough motivation to get the leftist vote out. But for now, the poll shows that 84 percent of those surveyed thought the PP would win in November, a percentage that extends to 77 percent of Socialist voters. The poll also shows that the PP would win the elections with 44.8 percent of the vote, compared with 30.8 percent for the PSOE.

Rubalcaba's first public appearance following the announcement that general elections will be pushed ahead to November was a meeting with six traffic victims' associations, which allowed him to show off his own road-safety policies as interior minister.

"Around 10,000 lives have been saved," he said. "They don't have first and last names, but they are alive because of what we all did together."

The candidate showed up in his own Skoda Fabia car, which he parked on the street. For the last decade, he had been using an official car.