The prime minister's farewell debate

On Tuesday the prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, delivered the only sort of speech that circumstances, including those of his own leadership, allow. The head of the opposition Popular Party (PP), Mariano Rajoy, said much the same thing he has been saying for a year. The result was a state-of-the-nation debate that again underscored the divergence between those marginal aspects in which political debate and decision-making has long been bogged down.

On this occasion, however, the predictability of the speeches could not hide the radical transformation of the encompassing context. The Greek crisis threatens profound consequences for the Spanish economy while, for the first time since the difficulties began, social protest is surfacing.

In his last speech as prime minister in such a debate, Zapatero was eager to enumerate the reforms undertaken by his government in the course of the last few months; at the same time describing their effects, still timid or non-existent, in an optimistic light. The aim was not only to justify the work done, but also to legitimize his intention of serving out the rest of the legislature. Apart from the announcements of an expenditure rule so that the regional governments will contribute to deficit reduction and of a bill to improve protection for families evicted from their homes, Zapatero only reviewed the immediate past, arguing the case for a direct relation between his government's management and the few positive data in sight; while the state of the public coffers afforded no margin for any surprising initiatives.

Rajoy, as usual, had nothing to say about what he will do if, as seems likely, he comes to power after the next elections. Indeed his margin for delivering a speech different from the one he did was as narrow as Zapatero's for announcing new measures. The PP leader knows that his policies cannot be radically different from those of the Zapatero government; hence he is obliged to focus his critique on credibility. On this ground he enjoys a relative advantage, not because his own is all that impressive, but because the government has squandered its credibility, and seems unlikely to regain it between now and the elections.

Tuesday's debate failed to clear up the doubts that still weigh upon the political situation. Though Zapatero announced a projected 1.5-percent growth rate for the last quarter of the year, it is not easy to predict what the behavior of the Spanish economy will be if the Greek crisis does not draw to a satisfactory conclusion.

Doubts also persist about early elections. Zapatero's desire to last out the legislature is one thing; his having the parliamentary votes to do so is quite another. The Catalan, Basque and Canary Island regional parties, on whom he depends, may demand too much in return for their support; while on the other hand these parties need to be on good terms with the PP, which now appears to stand on the threshold of power.