Real-Barcelona: round one

The prelude to the clásico brings out all sorts of strange superstitions in Spain: past results are meticulously studied for patterns, historical tendencies are reconstructed to test whether one side or the other is in the ascendancy, and, of course, betting slips are fingered nervously nationwide.

Will Real finally beat Pep Guardiola's Barcelona after five consecutive defeats? Will Leo Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo inch ahead in their personal duel for the title of pichichi as the league's top scorer? How many times will the cameras pan the stands in search of a lone Barça supporter braving a sea of white shirts? All these questions and more will be answered on Saturday night at Real's Bernabéu stadium, but ahead of the match the forecasts fell to Iker and Iniesta.

After the demise of Paul, the oracular octopus that foresaw Spain's triumph at the World Cup, there is a position in the country's sporting superstition to be filled, and either Iker or Iniesta will do so if they correctly select the winner at the Sea Life aquarium in Benalmádena. Perhaps they will obtain a joint managerial role if they both side with the same team. Either way, it is a heavyweight duel ahead of the upcoming clásico series: Iker, a pacific octopus, weighs in at 16 kilos. Iniesta, a Mediterranean cephalopod, is just a kilo-and-a-half. It would be a swift fight if they were dropped into the same tank, much like the reverse fixture last November at Camp Nou.

Barcelona crushed Real 5-0, with an ashen-faced Mourinho powerless to prevent the worst managerial pummeling of his career from unfolding in front of him. The pomp that heralded the arrival of the Portuguese was shattered by the circumstance on the field: Barcelona enjoyed 63 percent of possession and had more than double Real's number of shots on goal.

As the first of a run of matches that will see the eternal rivals square off in three competitions over 18 days, there is more at stake than mere pride for Real. Mourinho has already conceded that snatching the Liga title from Barça's vice-like grip is "practically impossible" and defeat on Saturday will send the trophy north once again. "It's a unique opportunity to strike a decisive blow," Guardiola said of the game. Victory will reduce Real's deficit to five points and nurse a flickering flame of hope through another week. More importantly, it would smash the aura of invincibility Barça has woven around Real ahead of the King's Cup final next week and the two-legged Champions League semifinal after that. Mourinho has consistently stated that he concentrates on one game before allowing the following match to enter his thoughts. On this occasion it is a sensible premise; a defeat in the league matters little in the broader picture, with Real's run-in considerably more fraught than Barça's.

In knockout tournaments this season, Real has a slight edge. It has conceded three to Barça's five in the Champions League and both sides have scored 24. Iker Casillas has not had to pluck the ball from his net in five European matches at the Bernabéu and has kept a clean sheet in eight of 10 games. Much was made of a power shift in La Liga when Mourinho took the reins at Real. Even victory on Saturday will not alter the panorama sufficiently for that to occur this season. It is in the knockout competitions that Real needs a return to the heavyweight division. Round one is just the beginning of the bout.