Mexico’s agri-food exports decline due to a perfect storm of the screwworm, tomato tariffs and tension over USMCA trade deal
Food shipments from Mexico declined by 4.4% in the first seven months of the year, according to official data. More than 80% of these exports are destined for the US
Mexican agricultural exports are declining. In seven months, the value of Mexico’s agri-food exports fell 4.4% compared to the same period in 2024. Figures from the Bank of Mexico show that the country sold $31.9 billion worth of agricultural products abroad from January to July of this year, a drop compared to the $33.4 billion reported for the same period in 2024. The loss of luster in the agricultural sector occurs amid the United States’ tariff war on Mexican tomatoes, as well as the closure of U.S. borders to Mexican beef due to the screwworm. On the other hand, Mexico imported $27 billion from this sector from January to July, an increase of 0.4% compared to 2024.
More than 80% of Mexico’s agricultural exports are destined for the United States. Mexico’s main trading partner, however, has set its sights on various foods imported from the Mexican countryside ahead of the upcoming review of the USMCA trade agreement between Mexico, Canada and the U.S., and with Donald Trump’s protectionist policies as a backdrop. Since last July, Mexican tomatoes shipped to the U.S. have been subject to a 17% compensatory duty. Furthermore, since July, U.S. imports of cattle, bison and horses from Mexico have been suspended following the latent spread of the screwworm parasite.
The U.S. alert for Mexican cattle continues. On Monday, authorities reported a new outbreak of the disease in the municipality of Sabinas Hidalgo, in the state of Nuevo León, less than 69 miles (112 kilometers) from the U.S. border. “American ranchers and families should know that we will not rely on Mexico to defend our industry, our food supply, or our way of life. We are firmly executing our five-pronged plan and will take decisive action to protect our borders, even in the absence of cooperation. Furthermore, we will pursue aggressive measures against anyone who harms American livestock,” said U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins.
Juan Carlos Anaya, general director of the consulting group Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), explains that the ban on Mexican cattle over the parasite has resulted in the loss of approximately 644,000 head of cattle in exports from January to August of this year, equivalent to a gap of $800 million. “We hope that the live cattle border, which has affected Mexican exporters, will soon reopen, but the shortage has also driven up the prices of cattle for fattening and slaughter to record levels,” he says.
On another front, the impact of a tariff on Mexican tomatoes is already being reflected in the figures. Exports fell from $1.8 billion in the first seven months of 2024 to $1.4 billion in the same period of 2025, representing an 18% year-over-year drop. Meanwhile, in the grain and oilseed sector, Mexican exports registered a 7.7% decline. The livestock sector also reported a 7.5% contraction, falling to $2.4 billion.
Despite these declines, Mexico’s agricultural trade balance ended the first seven months with a positive balance of 4.5%. However, this figure is at its lowest level since the 7.3% increase in 2018. Domestically, fruit and vegetable exports recorded the best performance, with an annual increase of 45% to $14.2 billion. Avocado remains one of the leading agricultural exports, with sales of more than $2.5 billion from January to July 2025, a 22% increase compared to the same period last year.
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