Melissa, a textbook hurricane in times of climate crisis
Meteorologists warn that the cyclone’s continued intensity is a response to rising sea temperatures: ‘Heat acts as fuel’
No resident of the Caribbean is caught off guard by the arrival of hurricanes in October. In Cuba, early warning messages were issued days ago, vulnerable areas were identified, and a relocation plan was prepared in the eastern part of the island; Jamaica closed its airports, mandated evacuations of the most at-risk population, and set up shelters... but Hurricane Melissa, which the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) described as the “storm of the century” for Jamaica, even before it hit the Caribbean island, has forced us to use superlatives in the extreme.
“There is no territory that can emerge unscathed from a phenomenon of this magnitude,” said Rodney Martínez, WMO representative for North America, Central America and the Caribbean. The cyclone, which went from Category 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale in just 48 hours, led the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue a very blunt warning as it approached Jamaica. “This is the last chance to protect your life!” it posted on the social network X. But for experts, Melissa is a “textbook” hurricane in times of climate crisis.
Hurricanes form over warm ocean waters, typically with temperatures above 26.5°C. This heat is the primary energy that fuels the system, which then condenses and releases the heat in the form of storms or hurricanes. “When it came near Jamaica, the ocean surface was 30 degrees Celsius, even down to 100 meters deep. It was a pot of hot water, and that’s fuel for hurricanes. That’s why it exploded like that,” explains José Rubiera, a Cuban meteorologist specializing in hurricanes, over the phone.
Science has proven in numerous studies that global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions worsens cyclones: it increases rainfall, slows their movement from one place to another, and increases their intensity.
And although an attribution study will be needed to determine the extent to which climate change fueled Hurricane Melissa’s power, experts consulted by EL PAÍS have no doubt that this cyclone is proof of the new norm in this era of climate emergency. On Tuesday morning, the hurricane was moving at just 11 kilometers (6.8 miles) per hour, and winds practically tripled in 48 hours (from 112 kilometers per hour to almost 300 kmph). The cyclone’s rapid intensification makes it one of the 10 strongest on record. “Nature doesn’t normally accept such extreme systems for so long and fluctuates,” explains Rubiera. “But with Melissa that wasn’t the case, and that is undoubtedly due to climate change.”
Martínez agrees. “There is a clear link between global warming and what we are experiencing,” says the Costa Rican. “When politicians ignore science, any denialist comment is valid, but amid ignorance, many lives are being lost.” This is the second most intense hurricane season on record.
A before and after in Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa is expected to deal a devastating blow to Jamaica. While both experts applaud the management of society, the authorities’ early warning system, and the technology involved in monitoring the island, they assert that we have yet to fully grasp the impact. “This cyclone will test the population’s preparedness, the resilience of the infrastructure, and the country’s warning system,” says Martínez. “It will have a significant impact on the economy. Without a doubt, there will be a before and after Melissa in Jamaica.”
The Red Cross estimates that at least 1.5 million Jamaicans will be directly affected, and UNICEF estimates that nearly 1.6 million children are at risk in the Caribbean. “All hurricane preparedness efforts are vital to mitigate damage and loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, especially in regions like the Caribbean,” insisted Roberto Benes, regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean, in a statement.
Over the past decade, approximately 11 million people, including nearly four million children and adolescents, have been affected each year by natural and human-caused disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean.
What most concerns experts is Jamaica’s mountainous terrain. Its landscape will foster extremely heavy rainfall and rising sea levels, generating “extremely high-caliber” flooding that will have “catastrophic” consequences. Current rainfall figures position Melissa as a stronger cyclone than Hurricane Katrina, which left more than 1,300 people dead in 2005, and very close to the magnitude of Hurricane Milton, which left more than two million people without power and led to thousands of evacuations in 2024.
Rubiera insists that Melissa “doesn’t end here.” After making landfall in Jamaica, it moved eastward to Cuba. The renowned meteorologist predicts that the hurricane will be weaker over his island and that it will move somewhat faster than it did over Jamaica.
But preparations are insufficient. The UN’s humanitarian affairs chief, Tom Fletcher, has announced that $4 million will be allocated from the UN’s emergency response fund to Cuba to support preventive measures for 170,000 people “before the storm hits.” The state-owned company Unión Eléctrica (UNE) announced at midday that it will shut down two of its seven thermal power plants and one fuel-fired plant in a “controlled” manner, in anticipation of the impact of the hurricane. “We’re going to have to prepare for more and more Melissas,” Rubiera concludes.
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