Harris and Trump battle it out with less than a month to go until election

The 2024 U.S. presidential election has turned into an action-packed thriller, with the intrigue surrounding the outcome still alive after several unexpected plot twists. With a month left until Election Day, the narrative feels somewhat stagnant. In the absence of major developments and amid a technical tie in the polls, the two presidential candidates — Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris — are locked in a fierce battle across the seven swing states that could determine who wins the White House. The intensity of their attacks is escalating. Trump is resorting to insults and falsehoods, while Kamala Harris is also turning to personal attacks, aided by Republicans who have turned their backs on the former president.

Following last week’s debate between the vice presidential candidates, there are no significant events on the calendar until Election Day on November 5, the Tuesday after the first Monday of the month, as mandated by the U.S. Constitution. What lies ahead is a long-distance race filled with rallies and an unprecedented publicity blitz, as both candidates’ campaigns are well-funded and ready to make an impact.

The campaign has been filled with surprises that have upended expectations. President Joe Biden, seeking re-election, believed that a strong performance in an early debate against Trump could dispel doubts about his ability to lead the country for another four years, despite the fact he would be taking office at the age of 82. However, he failed miserably. As he transitioned from denial to acceptance, he passed the baton to Kamala Harris, who became the first presidential candidate from one of the two major parties since 1968 to secure the nomination without participating in the primaries. Harris brought new energy and enthusiasm to the Democratic campaign.

Opposing him, Donald Trump has faced two assassination attempts. In the first, in Butler, Pennsylvania, he narrowly escaped death by mere centimeters. The second attempt occurred at his golf club in Florida, where he was not in immediate danger. In his acceptance speech at the Republican convention, Trump recounted how he sustained an ear injury during the attack and stated he would not discuss it further. However, he has continued to bring it up. On Saturday, he even held a rally in the same location where he was shot, accompanied by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.

Exchange of insults

Trump and Harris have only exchanged greetings once — during their debate on September 10, which ended in a victory for the Democrat. The former president has declined to participate in any further debates, meaning the two are battling from a distance. Trump has descended into insults. “Crooked Joe Biden became mentally impaired. Sad. But lying Kamala Harris, honestly, I believe she was born that way. There’s something wrong with Kamala. And I just don’t know what it is, but there is definitely something missing. And you know what, everybody knows it,” he said, during a recent speech in Erie, Pennsylvania. Additionally, he has attempted to politicize the response to Hurricane Helene, which has caused at least 215 deaths, by spreading lies about Biden and Harris.

Harris, for her part, said Trump “violated the oath to defend the Constitution,” referring to his refusal to accept his 2020 defeat and his role in causing the assault on the Capitol. In a notable move, she invited former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney to a rally in Ripon, Pennsylvania, which holds historical significance as the birthplace of the Republican Party. Cheney — known for her opposition to Trump — furthered the attack by labeling the former president “petty, vindictive, and cruel.”

In the context of intense political polarization, Trump has strategically utilized themes of xenophobia, racism, and fear, attributing various societal problems to immigration. He paints a dire picture of the country, claiming that illegal immigration is turning cities into unsafe environments. Republicans are focusing on inflation and portraying Harris as a threat to economic stability — the top issue for voters. Trump portrays a country in decline, asserting that a constant influx of illegal immigrants is transforming cities into dangerous and insecure places.

Events are actually working against the Republicans. Border crossings have fallen sharply with the latest measures approved by Joe Biden’s government. Economically, while rising prices over the past four years have weighed on citizens’ spirits, the upcoming elections come at a favorable time. In September, the economy added 254,000 jobs, and unemployment dropped to 4.1%, alleviating recession fears. Inflation has decreased to 2.5%, and wages have been increasing in purchasing power for several months. The Federal Reserve has begun to lower interest rates, consumer spending remains strong, and the economy is growing robustly. Additionally, the threat of a long dockworkers’ strike disrupting the supply chain is gone.

What has become more complicated is the international situation, with the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, and Lebanon. Arab Americans are expressing anger over the Biden administration’s support for Israel, and it remains uncertain whether Kamala Harris can avoid a backlash, particularly in Michigan, a crucial swing state where polls show a tight race.

Political analysts often discuss the “October surprise” — an unexpected event or revelation that can significantly alter the course of a campaign as elections approach. However, this year, following the historic surprises of June, July, August, and September, the bar for surprises is very high. The month began with Melania Trump’s rare support for abortion and the release of a damaging report from the prosecutor’s office detailing new evidence of Trump’s “desperate” attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Despite this, voters appear to have regained their composure, and Trump, now the first convicted felon with a chance at the presidency, has managed to postpone his legal troubles until after the election.

Whoever wins will make history: either as the first president to reclaim the office after losing it since Grover Cleveland in 1892 or as the first woman — and first Black woman — to occupy the Oval Office since the country’s founding, despite her not emphasizing her race or gender in her campaign. Both candidates present themselves as agents of change, yet each has held important government positions.

Following the frenetic action of the summer, the plot twists have slowed down. The storyline feels repetitive, and the polls have become nearly static, showing the Democrat leading in the popular vote but remaining inconclusive in the electoral college, which ultimately elects the president. The suspense keeping viewers engaged will not be resolved until at least election week, leaving open the possibility of a surprising post-credits scene.

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