The moment of truth: Harris-Trump debate will appeal to undecided voters

Christopher Hawking, a 31-year-old worker, is looking forward to Tuesday’s televised presidential debate between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump. This resident of Reading, a predominantly Latino city in the industrial heart of Pennsylvania, is one of those people whose vote the two candidates are fighting over in the homestretch of the campaign: an undecided voter in a key state who says he will go to the polls no matter what on November 5, but who has not yet decided who to vote for. “I’m waiting for the debate. I will study very carefully what each one proposes and then I will see,” he explains.

The dialectical duel between Harris and Trump, moderated by ABC News anchors, will take place at 9 p.m. on Tuesday at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. The stakes could not be higher: the candidates are absolutely tied. The low percentage of undecided voters, around 8%, will be fundamental in deciding which side wins, especially in the seven swing states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina). With 57 days to go before the election, and after an unprecedented campaign full of surprises, there is little room for error.

The key issue for the vast majority of voters will be the economy, according to the polls. The same applies to Hawking: “I graduated, I got a job, but my salary wasn’t enough and I had to look for a second job. Now, the prices of everything have skyrocketed and I can’t even make a living with two jobs; I’ve had to ask my partner to cover some of the bills. Costs are skyrocketing, but salaries remain the same. I have a university degree, I work hard and I’ve never asked the state for a cent, but I have no prospects for advancement, I can’t aspire to anything better, much less think about buying a house. And I can’t live from day to day forever,” laments this voter as he walks through a Puerto Rican culture festival in the streets of Reading. He admits that at the moment he is more drawn to Harris, but he is willing to change his mind if Trump’s proposals on the economy seem more interesting to him.

The impact of the debate could be decisive. Tens of millions of voters will be watching, either at home or at the thousands of viewing parties that the Democrats and Republicans have organized in neighborhoods across the country. Their impressions could lead them to change their voting intention or, as in the case of Hawking, to opt for one or the other. There will not be many more opportunities to influence the electorate so directly: at this point, a second debate between the two presidential candidates is not planned, although it has not been ruled out either. And in the next few days, early voting and voting by mail will begin in a good part of the states: in Pennsylvania, considered the territory that could provide the key to the White House, citizens will be able to start sending in their ballots starting Monday.

In Philadelphia, everything is ready for the event, which marks the first time the two candidates will meet in person. Security around the Constitution Center has been tightened. The streets in the area are closed to traffic. The vice president traveled to Philadelphia on Monday from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania’s second largest city, where she has been preparing for the debate in a hotel. Trump is scheduled to arrive on Tuesday.

Harris' momentum stalled

The latest polls show a dead heat between the two. Poll aggregators such as FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics point to a slight lead for Harris (2.8 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively), although on Sunday a survey by Siena-The New York Times placed the former president ahead by two percentage points. This is the first survey since the parties held their conventions and since Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July, which suggests that Harris’ momentum may have stalled.

At a time like this, anything the candidates say, any brilliant moment or unexpected error, could resonate disproportionately with the electorate in the form of memes and be repeated over and over again on social media and television. This is something that President Biden experienced firsthand: his gaffes in his debate against Trump ended up forcing his decision to withdraw from the race a month later.

Trump faces the challenge of focusing on his electoral platform and not being offensive towards Harris. His mission is to demonstrate to the skeptics that he has a presidential character, after a month in which he resorted to personal insults to describe his opponent.

The Republican candidate is not exactly the most disciplined of politicians and has on occasion said that he “has the right” to be aggressive towards his rival. At a rally in late August in North Carolina, he said that his advisers often urge him to be more friendly in his statements, but he acknowledged that “sometimes it is difficult when you are attacked from all sides.”

Harris’s task is equally delicate, if not more so. The vice president, who has insisted from the start that the Democrats are not the favorites in this election, has managed to regain the support and enthusiasm of a good part of the traditionally Democratic voting blocs that had distanced themselves from Biden. However, according to the polls, the numbers have not yet reached the levels that propelled Biden to the White House in 2020.

The Democratic candidate will have to take advantage of the debate to introduce herself to the large number of voters who say they still don’t know her well enough. They don’t know where she stands on the issues, or what she will do if she is elected president.

“I’m not sure what she stands for. She’ll probably be good for women and reproductive rights, but what else? What does she think? What is she going to do about the economy?” says Tony Farabee, an African-American voter originally from New York and now living in Pennsylvania. Farabee is also undecided, although he admits that for now he is tempted by Donald Trump: “I respect his strength,” he says. But he also says that he will watch the debate very closely: “I pray that it will give me clarity when it comes to deciding.”

Nearly 30 million people watched the final day of the Democratic convention on television, when Harris delivered her official acceptance speech as the party's nominee, in late August. Nearly twice as many are expected to tune in to watch Tuesday's debate.

Despite his interest in following it, Christopher Hawking will not be there, and will instead have to wait to watch it on tape. “I cannot afford to sit down and watch it. At that time I’ll have to be at one of my two jobs so that I can make money to put food on the table.”

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