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What will happen to Trump? How the polls have responded to his legal battles

The former president is facing a long list of trials, but support for the Republican has barely wavered

Trump24
Jay Paul

Less than seven months before the presidential elections and with four court cases underway, Donald Trump’s return to the White House is as likely as Joe Biden’s reelection. In fact, in the polls collected by the Real Clear Politics aggregator, the tycoon has a 0.2-point lead over his rival:

Trump also has a high chance of returning to the White House, according to Metaculus, a community of thousands of users dedicated to predictions about future real-world events, which has a good record of accurately predicting outcomes. The community estimates that the Republican candidate has a 50% chance of returning to the White House.

Mataculus has been increasing Trump’s odds nearly nonstop since late last year, as he saw off his challengers in the Republican Party’s primaries. It only registered a slight drop, for example, in the days surrounding the former president’s testimony in the civil fraud trial.

What's to come for Trump

There are still key events on the Republican candidate’s agenda, especially in the courts. First up is his criminal trial for hush money paid to porn actress Stormy Daniels to allegedly prevent her claims that she had an extramarital affair with Trump from causing a scandal before the 2016 elections. Below, we detail Trump’s key legal and election dates before the elections on November 5.

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