What will happen to Trump? How the polls have responded to his legal battles
The former president is facing a long list of trials, but support for the Republican has barely wavered
Less than seven months before the presidential elections and with four court cases underway, Donald Trump’s return to the White House is as likely as Joe Biden’s reelection. In fact, in the polls collected by the Real Clear Politics aggregator, the tycoon has a 0.2-point lead over his rival:
Trump also has a high chance of returning to the White House, according to Metaculus, a community of thousands of users dedicated to predictions about future real-world events, which has a good record of accurately predicting outcomes. The community estimates that the Republican candidate has a 50% chance of returning to the White House.
Mataculus has been increasing Trump’s odds nearly nonstop since late last year, as he saw off his challengers in the Republican Party’s primaries. It only registered a slight drop, for example, in the days surrounding the former president’s testimony in the civil fraud trial.
What's to come for Trump
There are still key events on the Republican candidate’s agenda, especially in the courts. First up is his criminal trial for hush money paid to porn actress Stormy Daniels to allegedly prevent her claims that she had an extramarital affair with Trump from causing a scandal before the 2016 elections. Below, we detail Trump’s key legal and election dates before the elections on November 5.
Court calendar
Political calendar
April
April 15
Stormy Daniels case
New York
Scheduled date for trial to begin
April 2
Primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin
April 6
Convention
Missouri
April 20
Convention
Wyoming
April 21
Primaries in Puerto Rico
April 23
Primaries in Pennsylvania
April 25
Supreme Court hearing on presidential immunity
Washington
May
May 4
Primaries in Missouri
May 7
Primaries in Indiana
May 14
Primaries in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia
May 21
Primaries in Kentucky and Oregon
May 20
Mar-a-Lago papers
Florida
Date pending review. Likely to be postponed
May 25
Convention
Oregon
June
No date
Trial for election subversion
Washington
It will not start until the Supreme Court decides on the immunity case.
June 4
Primaries in Montana, N. Jersey, N. Mexico and South Dakota
No date
The Supreme Court's judicial year comes to an end
Washington
July
July 15-18
Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
August
August 5
Trial over attempt to alter the election result in Georgia
Atlanta
Date proposed by the prosecution for the start of the trial
September
October
November
November 5
Presidential election
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition
