Donald Trump 2.0: How US foreign policy may change if he returns to the White House

In 1997, former U.S. national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski published The Grand Chessboard. The book argued that, to remain a world leader, the U.S. only needed to do three things: strengthen its ties with Europe through NATO; preserve its military bases in Asia to contain China; and prevent any “assertive entity” such as Beijing or Moscow from gaining influence in the key regions of the Middle East and Central Asia.

The U.S. presidential elections on November 5 — when President Joe Biden is set to face off against Republican Donald Trump — appears to put this policy at a dramatic crossroads: the Democrat is offering to follow Brzezinski’s recipe to the letter, while the Republican is pledging to destroy it.

Biden — who boasts international experience and decades of relations with other leaders — has spoken of his commitment to NATO, strengthened or created new alliances in Asia and insisted on sending more military aid to Ukraine. Despite his support for Israel in the Gaza war, he defends the two-state solution for Palestine.

Trump is not particularly interested in international politics, but during his term as president, he turned it upside down. Trump reneged on international agreements on climate change, troop deployment, trade and nuclear weapons. He formed closer relations with autocrats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un — “We fell in love,” he once said of the latter — while attacking leaders of allied countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. He also banned citizens of Arab countries from traveling to the U.S.; threatened to withdraw U.S. bases from South Korea; and described Haiti and El Salvador as “shithole countries.”

Three weeks ago, Trump said that if he returned to the White House, he would end NATO’s raison d’être — the mutual defense pledge — and allow Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to members that do not invest at least 2% of GDP in defense. He also hinted that he would convert foreign aid into mere loans. Previously, he claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.”

In view of these statements, the possibility of Trump returning to the White House has sounded alarm bells among Washington’s European and Asian partners. There are eight months to go until the elections — a long time in politics where anything could change — but recent polls give Trump a lead over Biden. While the prospect of a Trump victory is of concern to U.S. allies, it is welcomed by other governments, from Israel to Moscow.

According to Grant Davis Reeher, director of the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, Trump’s return to the White House would mark a radical change from Biden’s multilateralism. “[There would be] an emphasis on bilateral rather than multilateral relations, and a general reduction in American involvement in international affairs,” the expert explains by email. Among other things, Trump has already assured that he would once again withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on climate change.

“If his first four years were bad, a second four will be worse,” says John Bolton, Trump’s former national security advisor, who is now one of his biggest critics, in the foreword to his memoir The Room. Where It Happened.

According to Bolton, Trump would surround himself with a team characterized less by its training than by its absolute obedience to the president. Given he is unable to run for a third term, the magnate would not be limited by the need to please voters and could inflict irreparable damage on the United States and its allies, says the conservative hawk.

“It is a close contest between Putin and Xi Jinping who would be happiest to see Trump back in office,” Bolton writes.

Here is a review of how the world may be affected by Trump 2.0, based on his statements, the analysis of experts and the comments of those who know him.

Europe and the Ukrainian war

“We could see a withdrawal of support for Ukraine, although it is also possible that, once Trump returns to the White House, he would see this problem differently,” says Reeher. Of the conflict, the former president has said: “I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace — getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace.”

In this academic’s opinion, Trump’s re-election “would do nothing but damage relations with our European allies.” “While it is true that European nations were not contributing to NATO at the level they were supposed to, the damage that the former president’s stance supposes is quite real,” argues Reeher. He believes it is unlikely that the magnate “would seriously consider leaving NATO, or fail to fulfill the commitment to defend the countries of the Alliance — whether or not they have ‘paid’ their part.” But, he adds, Trump “has made comments to those two effects, so we have to take him seriously.”

In a second term, Trump may launch a trade war against European automakers. The former president has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports and has hinted that he may raise them even higher on Chinese products, which faced heavy taxes during his first term.

Asia and China

If re-elected, Trump would probably adopt an even more aggressive position towards China with respect to trade: he has even suggested tariffs of over 60% on Chinese goods — a move that would damage relations between the two superpowers.

The big unknown is what position Trump would take on Taiwan. In past statements, he has appeared unwilling to defend the island — Bolton said while in office, Trump likened the island to his fountain pen, and China to his office desk. If China invades Taiwan, it would trigger a “significant international crisis,” says Reeher, and both a Democratic and Republican administration “would do everything possible to avoid it.” According to the expert, unlike with his moves towards Putin, “Trump has made it clear that he does not love the Chinese leadership.”

The former U.S. president could renew pressure on South Korea and, as he did in his first term, threaten to withdraw troops protecting the country unless Seoul bears a greater proportion of the costs. It also remains to be seen whether he would renew his failed nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

Middle East and Gaza

Trump has not made any major statements regarding the war in Gaza. But during his term, he ordered the U.S. Embassy to be moved to Jerusalem and was permissive toward extremist Jewish settlers. Israel’s Minister of National Security, the far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, recently said that Biden has not given Israel “his full backing.” “If Trump was in power, the U.S. conduct would be completely different,” he told The Wall Street Journal.

During the presidential primaries, progressive Democrats and the Arab-American community backed a protest vote to pressure Biden to change his pro-Israel position in the war and support a permanent ceasefire. But, Reeher warns, if Trump returned to the White House, he “would be less aligned with those interests, and that is one of the ironies” of the situation.

Latin America

In all likelihood, the former president — who convinced Republicans to block a bilateral immigration security bill after four months of laborious negotiations, and promised to build a wall on the southern border of the United States in his first term— will exert “much more pressure on Mexico and Latin America to stop the flow of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border,” says Reeher.

But the president of Argentina, the ultra-liberal Javier Milei, can expect a closer relationship. The real estate magnate has spoken in glowing terms about Milei and has promised to visit Argentina. Under Trump, the U.S. would likely become more hostile towards Cuba. During his term, Trump ended former president Barack Obama’s policy of rapprochement.

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