Angie Nixon’s victory puts the Democrats’ progressive wave to the test in Florida

A democratic socialist won the Democratic nomination for a U.S. Senate seat in Florida, a state that has become a Republican stronghold over the past decade and where the term “socialism” has long been one of the most effective political attacks, particularly among the large Latin American communities of South Florida. Angie Nixon, a 42-year-old state representative from Jacksonville, pulled off an upset in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, defeating front-runner Alex Vindman, the former national security official who testified against Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial. Her challenge now is even greater.

Although her victory comes amid a wave of progressive wins within the Democratic Party across different parts of the country, it has caught the party establishment by surprise. Nixon entered the primary having raised less than $1 million, a fraction of Vindman’s $16 million campaign war chest. Vindman also enjoyed national name recognition because of his role in Trump’s impeachment proceedings. Nixon won 56% of the vote and will face Republican Ashley Moody in November. Moody currently holds the seat vacated by Marco Rubio when he was appointed secretary of state.

But experts consulted for this article caution against interpreting the result as evidence that Florida Democrats have shifted en masse to the left. Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University and an expert on voting behavior and public opinion, says the primary results paint a more complicated picture. “I would be a bit more cautious about considering this evidence that Florida Democrats are undergoing a broad ideological shift,” he says.

According to Wagner, Nixon’s victory contrasts with that of former Republican David Jolly, whom Democrats chose as their nominee for governor, as well as with Congressman Jared Moskowitz’s win in Florida’s 25th Congressional District, where he defeated a more progressive challenger. “The patterns are not as clear as some would like them to be,” the expert says. “The picture is much more nuanced than that, and some progressive candidates did not perform well.”

Eduardo Gamarra, a political science professor at Florida International University, argues that despite Vindman’s advantages in fundraising and name recognition, “his campaign lacked a ground game.” The result should also serve as a warning to Democrats against “importing candidates” with national profiles “because they are not able to develop their own candidates” with local roots.

“This is a primary campaign where mobilization wins, especially among the most organized groups and those with more extreme views. That’s how the Tea Party emerged, and it later became MAGA,” he explains. “The people who vote in primaries are the true believers.”

While Nixon’s victory is not evidence that the Democratic Party is moving toward socialism, the label is certain to feature prominently in the run-up to November. That is especially true among Cuban, Venezuelan and other Latin American exile communities in South Florida, many of whom fled authoritarian regimes and have spent decades hearing Republicans use the term effectively to attack Democratic rivals.

In that sense, Nixon’s nomination has been “a gift from heaven” for Republicans, says Gamarra. Their argument will be that “it’s not just Republicans calling Democrats socialists; they are saying they are socialists themselves,” he notes.

Nixon has described herself as a democratic socialist and has championed policies such as Medicare for All, stronger labor protections, and measures to lower housing and childcare costs. Part of this agenda “has traction among a large portion of the U.S. electorate,” especially when it comes to the cost of living and access to health care, Gamarra says. “About 40% of what these socialists are proposing enjoys support in polls. It’s easy to agree with that.” “Most people do not disagree with Medicare for All, for example,” he adds.

At the same time, Gamarra argues that Democrats have become too focused on rebutting accusations of socialism rather than addressing voters’ concerns. “The central problem the party is having is that it has adopted the Republican campaign slogan, trying to insist that they are not socialists, and at the same time they have forgotten the core issues,” he argues. “What voters want to hear is: ‘And what are you offering me?’”

Nixon’s victory comes as several progressive candidates have scored major wins nationwide against establishment-backed rivals. One of the most notable examples was Zohran Mamdani, who won New York City’s mayoralty last year on a campaign focused on addressing the high cost of living. More recently, Muslim physician Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan. In Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig in the Democratic Senate primary.

Some analysts have described those results as part of a progressive wave, but not a uniform one. In Wisconsin, for example, a key swing state, the more centrist candidate, David Crowley, narrowly defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary.

Florida, once one of the country’s key battleground states, has shifted to the right in recent years, due in part to Hispanic voting patterns, particularly in South Florida, including former Democratic strongholds such as Miami-Dade County. Trump has carried the state three consecutive times, each by a wider margin than the last, and Democrats have not held the governor’s office since the 20th century. Voter-registration records show 5.6 million registered Republicans compared with 4.07 million Democrats, a Republican advantage of more than 1.5 million, according to the latest official figures.

Nixon was born in Jacksonville, where she spent years working with labor unions and community organizations, including Florida for All, a voter-mobilization coalition. She was elected to the state legislature in 2020. Her Senate campaign has focused on pocketbook issues, including raising the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour, freezing rents and increasing taxes on billionaires.

Moody, Florida’s former attorney general, was appointed to the Senate in January last year by Ron DeSantis to replace Marco Rubio. A University of North Florida poll released last month gave Moody an eight-point lead over Nixon, 50% to 42%. That margin was narrower than her advantage over Vindman, which stood at 50% to 40%.

Wagner, for his part, says it is too early to draw conclusions. “We’ll see how Nixon fares in the general election and how the Democratic Party responds to her. There is still much to see,” he adds.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition