Texas sparks national battle over gerrymandering

A new clash between the two U.S. giants: California Governor Gavin Newsom threatened to play an ace up his sleeve and respond in kind if Texas goes ahead with its plan to approve new electoral maps that could widen the Republicans’ advantage in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. Newsom is not alone. The Democratic governors of Illinois and New York have not ruled out similar redesigns of their local legislatures, a practice known as gerrymandering, if the conservative stronghold sticks with the plan devised by Texas Governor Greg Abbott and endorsed by Donald Trump.

“They know they’re headed toward a loss of the Congress in 2026. They’re afraid. And they should be,” Illinois Governor JB Pritzker said Tuesday. The politician was accompanied by members of the delegation of about 50 Texas representatives who fled the state for the north to break the quorum in the state Congress, controlled by conservatives. In this way, they bought time for the imminent approval of new electoral maps in five metropolitan districts governed by Democratic legislators.

Trump defended the Republicans’ plans in Texas on Tuesday. “I won Texas. I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats,” the president said in an interview with CNBC. His response reflected his particular relationship with the truth, as he did receive the most votes, but his margin of victory over Kamala Harris didn’t set a record.

In his talk with the progressive-leaning channel, the president underscored an uncomfortable truth about the American system: both parties use redistricting to their advantage. “You notice [the Democratic lawmakers] go to Illinois for safety, but that’s all gerrymandered,” Trump asserted, accusing the Democrats of being “hypocrites.” “They did it to us,” he recalled.

Illinois, with nearly 13 million inhabitants, has only three Republican legislators in 17 districts. This represents just 18%, despite Trump winning 44% of the vote in last November’s presidential election. A Princeton University analysis finds that Illinois, which approved new electoral maps in 2021, has one of the most unfair designs in the country, along with Texas and North Carolina.

Abbott’s announcement has triggered a response plan in California, the nation’s most populous state, which sends 52 legislators to Washington each election, compared to 38 representatives from Texas. Governor Newsom has acknowledged that the actions in the Texas Congress could trigger a Democratic backlash to win back the members they would lose in conservative territory.

California Democrats currently hold 43 seats in the lower chamber at the Capitol. There are only nine Republican congressmen in a state of nearly 40 million people. According to leaked unofficial plans, a group of Democratic Party consultants in California is drawing up the new maps. These would seek to expand their congressional seat capacity from 48 to 52 legislators. Details of this plan would not be known until August 18, the date on which the local congressmen would return to Sacramento, California’s capital, to begin a new term. The redesign is not guaranteed, as the maps must first clear a tight congressional circuit and then be presented to voters in a special election in November of this year.

Spotlight on the Latino vote

In Texas, where this new standoff originated, Republicans have openly admitted that the maneuver seeks to expand their representation in Congress, where they now hold 25 of 38 seats. Local officials have claimed, however, that the change to the maps is due to the Department of Justice’s decision that five districts in the state could be unconstitutional because they favor a racial minority.

District Attorney Harmeet Dhillon threatened legal action if local officials didn’t redraw the maps for Districts 3, 9, 18, 29, and 33. According to the court, these are “coalition” regions where the percentage of Black and Latino residents combined to form a majority, something that could trigger a lawsuit under the Voting Rights Act, the election law, and the Fourteenth Amendment, which guarantees all citizens equal treatment under the law.

Critics of the new district design claim it’s a maneuver to disempower ethnic minorities and accuse the Department of Justice of acting without justification, as there are no ongoing lawsuits targeting these districts. The new districts, legal experts warn, could lead to discrimination lawsuits.

The five contested districts are located in the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Austin, the state capital, as well as on the border with Mexico. They all share a common theme: they are comprised of a diverse cross-section of minorities that make up the state of 31 million people. Although considered a solid conservative stronghold, the districts in the region’s larger Texas cities tend to lean more toward the ideological center or even favor progressive candidates.

Districts 28 and 34, held by Democrats Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, respectively, would be redrawn to give Republicans a slight advantage in a Hispanic-majority area. But the victory of Trump’s party candidates is not assured. The president had an excellent showing among the Latino population in South Texas, where he won 12 of the 14 counties in the border area. Six months into the administration, however, many of those who voted for the Republican have vowed never to do so again.

At least a third of Latinos who supported Trump in 2024 have stated they will not vote for a Republican in the 2026 midterm elections, according to an Equis poll conducted last month. More than six in 10 of those surveyed have rejected the economic measures adopted by the White House, especially the administration’s unpredictable tariff policy that has impacted the border.

Next year’s elections are still a long way off, but Latino voters will be evaluating not only the president’s economic performance but also his immigration policy. Some of the counties Republicans are seeking to redraw, especially in Houston and Dallas, have suffered harassment by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents targeting countless Hispanic families. This could backfire on Republican congressmen.

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