Iowa measures Republican dedication to Donald Trump in coldest caucuses in history

In the religious state of Iowa, the bishop of Des Moines dispensed this Sunday from attending Mass due to of the freezing temperatures. On Monday, the day of the caucuses, the forecast is for a minimum of between -20ºC and -29ºC (-4ºF to -20ºF). Emergency services have issued a wind chill alert. Snow and ice covers the ground everywhere, and the weather is expected to affect participation in what are the coldest caucuses in history. The kickoff of the Republican primary race will measure the degree of voter devotion to Donald Trump, the clear frontrunner, and will settle the fierce battle for second place between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.

The latest poll released this weekend, The Iowa Poll, which is reputed to be the most reliable and is conducted by The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom, indicates that Trump has the support of 48% of Republicans inclined to go to the caucuses this Monday. The main new development is that the poll places Haley as the runner-up, with 20% of the vote, compared to 16% for DeSantis. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is forecast to garner 8%. The fine print of the poll shows Trump dominating across all demographic segments, while Haley stands out among higher-educated and higher-income urban voters.

For DeSantis, such a result would be catastrophic. On Saturday, at one of his campaign events, a prankster approached him to present him with an award: “Governor DeSantis, I want to present to you this participation trophy. You’re probably not going to win the election, but we’re proud of you for trying,” the heckler said before being escorted away by security. Iowa has a high percentage of evangelical Christians, among whom DeSantis’ conservative positions may resonate more. He has campaigned tirelessly in the state, touring each of its 99 counties. If the most DeSantis can achieve on the back of such an effort is to trail in third, his campaign would be mortally wounded. “You’re going to pack so much more punch on Monday night than in any other election you’ll ever be able to participate in,” DeSantis told about 60 supporters Saturday at his first rally of the day in Council Bluffs, in far western Iowa, as reported by the Associated Press.

One of the unknowns is who the likely low turnout will favor most. Before the winter storm brought arctic temperatures to the state, caucus attendance records of over 200,000 were expected. Now, the cold will play a significant role. The heavy snow makes movement in rural areas especially difficult and that could favor Haley, who has more urban supporters, somewhat. The Des Moines Register poll, however, points to her voters being the least-motivated and enthusiastic. DeSantis’ support is small but committed, while Trump’s is large and determined: “You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history but maybe that’s good, because our people are more committed than anybody else,” the former president said this weekend in a video.

As his rivals continued to pound the streets, Trump canceled his rallies on Saturday and instead carried them out via teleconference. “It’s horrible out there,” he could be seen saying as he arrived at one of the events. On Sunday, however, he did attend his campaign closing rally in person and used it to attack Haley, who he already seems to view as his main rival. “She’s not right to be president. I know her very well,” Trump said in Indianola, adding Haley is “not tough enough.”

For her part, Haley was campaigning Saturday in Iowa City and criticized the former president: “Chaos follows him. You know I’m right. We can’t defeat Democratic chaos with Republican chaos.” On Sunday, she reiterated the idea of change in Ames, Iowa. “It’s been 11 months, and it all comes down to tomorrow,” Haley said of Monday’s caucuses, casting herself as a “new generational leader that leaves the negativity and the baggage behind and focuses on the solutions of the future.”

The Iowa caucuses are political assemblies that will be held in civic centers, schools, sports centers, and even private homes, totaling about 1,500 different sites throughout a state of 3.2 million inhabitants. At these locations, Republican voters will express their preferences for candidates. Sometimes there are speeches and debates, though not necessarily. In the Republican case, there is no group formation or elimination of candidates who do not reach a certain percentage of votes. The Democrats have relegated the Iowa caucuses after the botched 2020 canvas, which dragged on for days and did not prove entirely reliable. President Joe Biden pushed for early votes to be cast in more diverse states that better represent his party and the country. Officially, the Democratic primary process begins in South Carolina on February 3, and then moves to Nevada. However, the New Hampshire Democratic Party is moving ahead with a January 23 primary that the party’s national apparatus says will be invalid.

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