US and Israel develop plans to attack Iran after the midterms

Washington and Israel have devised new plans to strike Iran again after the U.S. midterm elections, The New York Times reports, citing senior U.S. officials and other sources. The planning comes as the armed forces of both countries have stepped up military maneuvers in the region to rehearse bombing missions, and as the State Department has ordered nonessential embassy staff and their families to evacuate Saudi Arabia amid the prospect of possible new attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. It also comes as Israel prepares for an election in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for re-election.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met secretly with Netanyahu this week at a military base in Israel to discuss new strikes. Targets would include nuclear facilities, Iran’s energy infrastructure and its missile and drone arsenals. The Financial Times earlier reported that Netanyahu ordered his military to plan a bombing campaign against Iran at the start of the month, but did not carry it out after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected restarting hostilities before his country’s midterm elections on November 3. The Israeli prime minister almost daily promotes the idea of an imminent wave of military attacks against the Islamic Republic.

The rationale behind the possible strikes is the belief that Iran’s economy is so weakened that another round of bombings would collapse it entirely and force its leadership to make concessions they have resisted through eight months of conflict. It is an idea Washington has held throughout the war — that military and economic pressure, including sanctions, would eventually compel Tehran to yield — but it has never shown signs of happening. Instead, U.S. and Israeli strikes in the early months of the conflict, between February and April, triggered a spike in global energy prices and, with them, inflation worldwide; undermined security in the Middle East; created tensions between the United States and its allies; and drastically depleted the Pentagon’s reserves of missile interceptors.

It is not yet clear that Trump will greenlight a resumption of attacks. The war is deeply unpopular in the United States and has been a major factor in driving down the incumbent’s approval rating to roughly 34%, the lowest of his term. The Republican has on several occasions blocked the possibility of restarting the bombing campaign that ended in April, including this month when Israeli and U.S. forces were nearly ready to strike again.

Iranian officials have vowed that if their country is attacked again as it was in the opening months of the war, they will respond in kind. And not only — as has been the case in recent months — against merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz or energy infrastructure in neighboring countries. They would also consider targeting data centers or undersea internet cables.

Over recent months the United States has reinforced its military presence in the Persian Gulf region, where a third aircraft carrier recently arrived in a deployment that will be completed in early November. At the same time diplomatic contacts have continued, including meetings between representatives of the two countries on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly last month.

Washington is demanding that Tehran reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas flowed before the conflict, and which Iran closed after the outbreak of hostilities. The U.S. also demands that the Islamic Republic permanently abandon development of its nuclear program, a step the regime has so far refused, arguing that the issue should be addressed in a later phase of negotiations.

Next Tuesday’s Israeli elections, with their uncertain outlook, also pose an unknown factor for the future of the conflict. If Netanyahu loses, he will become merely an interim head of government, and it will be difficult for him to reignite the war. Some analysts believe, however, that the prime minister might try to capitalize on the prospect of a new wave of attacks to pressure his opponents into forming a national unity government to manage the country during wartime and thus remain in power, the Times notes.

But U.S. forces will not be fully deployed in the area at the levels Washington desires until next month. And by then, the nights will also be longer in the area, which the Pentagon prefers in the event that a decision is made to launch an attack, according to the newspaper.

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