The Bolsonaro surname: An advantage or liability in Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections?

Nine out of ten Brazilians do not regret their vote in the last presidential election in 2022, according to a survey released last week. That figure suggests that the next presidential election, scheduled for October 2026, will be fiercely competitive, as there has never been a victory in Brazil as narrow as that one. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won over former president Jair Bolsonaro by less than two points.

The biggest question this time is who will face Lula da Silva, 80, who is seeking reelection to round out his career with a fourth term. For now, the political right is centered around the Bolsonaro clan and its brand. The patriarch, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, 70, wants his eldest son on the ballot. From his prison cell, he has already put him forward as a pre-candidate. The Bolsonaro name remains an extremely valuable political asset for the family; for their less ideological allies on the right, however, it has become more of a burden.

Although the announcement has been welcomed by foreign far-right figures, such as Argentine President Javier Milei and Spanish Vox leader Santiago Abascal, the reaction in Brazil is far from enthusiastic, judging by signals from the center-right and polling data.

The chosen candidate is Flávio Bolsonaro, 44, known within the family as “01.” A lawyer, he has spent half his life in politics and currently serves in the Senate. The early stages of the campaign are a whirlwind of negotiations, gestures, and statements that analysts are reading like tea leaves.

Bolsonaro’s movement suffered a painful defeat at the hands of its nemesis, the powerful judge Alexandre de Moraes, which is all the more humiliating because it was seen as influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Washington has lifted the sanctions against the judge and his wife — sanctions originally instigated by one of Bolsonaro’s sons.

The family has succeeded in shifting public focus to the father’s imprisonment, in exchange setting aside the push for amnesty. Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies has opened the door to reducing prison sentences for coup supporters, including the former president. The measure enjoys the backing of major newspapers, which have editorialized in favor of shortening what they consider to be excessive sentences.

A little over a month after entering prison, Bolsonaro left his private cell to undergo surgery. On Christmas morning, he had a double inguinal hernia operation at a private hospital in Brasília. The procedure was authorized by Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who imposed several restrictions: Federal Police agents were to guard his room 24 hours a day, all cell phones and electronic devices were strictly prohibited, and visits were limited to his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and two of his children: councilor Carlos Bolsonaro and senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

Flávio took advantage of the operation to read, from the hospital doorway, a letter written by his father in which Jair Bolsonaro reiterates that he has chosen Flávio to succeed him in the 2026 presidential election. “I am entrusting the most important thing in a father’s life: his own son, to rescue our Brazil. This is a conscious, legitimate decision, guided by the desire to preserve the representation of those who placed their trust in me,” reads part of the message.

Now on the campaign trail, Flávio emphasizes that he carries the Bolsonaro name in his blood. But he also presents himself to voters as “a more centrist, more moderate Bolsonaro” compared to the patriarch. To prove it, he points out that he did get vaccinated against COVID-19 — twice.

With this message, he is seeking to appeal to the traditional center-right electorate — and to the parties that act as kingmakers in Brazilian elections. But those parties, collectively known as the centrão (the big center), which have little or no ideological consistency, have another preferred candidate: also conservative, also liberal, but importantly, not a Bolsonaro. For this constellation of parties, if Jair Bolsonaro cannot run because he is behind bars for the foreseeable future, they would prefer someone outside the family rather than a weak copy. None of the four adult Bolsonaro children — all involved in politics — have inherited their father’s charisma.

The centrão’s preferred candidate is clearly Tarcísio de Freitas, 50, governor of São Paulo, or, failing that, other center-right governors, as Gilberto Kassab, one of Brazil’s most prominent political operators, has made clear. When Kassab steps out of the backstage to speak publicly, Brazil’s political class takes notice. Last Thursday, he made it clear that he is not betting on a Bolsonaro. “I still believe that Tarcísio is the best candidate for Brazil […] I wish Flávio good luck. If Tarcísio is not a candidate, we will support one of the two [governors].”

De Freitas, known to everyone by his first name, balances total loyalty to Bolsonaro — who appointed him minister and governor of the country’s wealthiest state — with an emphasis on his more technocratic and moderate profile. He knows his age is on his side and is in no hurry to run for president.

In the most recent Datafolha poll, Lula would defeat Flávio by 15 points in a runoff. Against De Freitas, the current president would lead by only five points. Positioned between the two in the simulation is another Bolsonaro: Michelle Bolsonaro, 43, the patriarch’s third wife.

The family dynamic adds another layer to the contest. The former first lady is the most charismatic of the Bolsonaros after her husband. Her name is circulating as a potential vice-presidential candidate alongside the governor of São Paulo and as a possible senator.

Michelle Bolsonaro set aside her initial reluctance to embark on a political career that has taken on more momentum than many, including her husband, had predicted. As head of the women’s wing of the Liberal Party (PL), where much of the family is active, she is a powerful draw for conservative female voters.

After a heated public clash with her stepchildren over a regional candidacy — a dispute the patriarch had to mediate — and the announcement that Bolsonaro wants Flávio as his successor, she fell ill. She has taken medical leave and suspended her political activity. The PL women’s wing congress, scheduled for this past Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, has been postponed.

Back in the late 1980s, when the Brazilian army showed Jair Bolsonaro the door due to serious threats and insubordination, the reservist saw an opportunity to make a living in politics. He started as a councilor in Rio de Janeiro, advocating for soldiers’ pay demands. Election after election, he built what seemed like a modest political career. But with a strategic goal: not neglecting the future of his wives and children. One by one, he encouraged them to follow in his footsteps, giving rise to a sort of Bolsonaro Inc. — something not uncommon in a country of political dynasties.

His first wife, Rogéria Bolsonaro, mother of his three eldest children, was one of the first family members involved in politics… until, taking advantage of his move to Congress in Brasília, she decided to pursue her own opinions and positions as a councilor in Rio. The patriarch did not hesitate to deploy one of their sons, then 17 years old, against her, who made his public debut by taking the family seat from his mother.

A quarter of a century later, Bolsonaro Sr., known in the family as “the captain” and the main asset of the family brand, is imprisoned and barred from office for leading a coup attempt. Yet he has strategically placed his family members throughout the political landscape.

Senator Flávio is trying to overcome significant obstacles in his bid for the presidency; councilor Carlos, 43, known as “02,” has just announced that he will leave the Rio de Janeiro council seat he took from his mother to run for the Senate; 41-year-old deputy Eduardo, or “03,” moved to the United States to gain support from Trump and the international far-right network to save his father and is now under investigation for coercion of the Supreme Court, with no signs of returning anytime soon; and 27-year-old Renan Jair, or “04,” from Bolsonaro’s second marriage, won his first term as a councilor after being elected with the highest vote count in the city of Balneário Camboriú.

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