Peronist split strengthens Milei’s position in Argentina’s Congress

After suffering multiple defeats in Congress during its first two years in office, Javier Milei’s government is poised to become the largest minority party in parliament. Its victory in the legislative elections just over a month ago significantly improved the far-right’s position, and since then, successive splits within opposition blocs have allowed it to strengthen its position. On Tuesday, a split in the Peronist bloc completely cleared the path for the libertarian movement to become the largest minority party.

Three national deputies from Catamarca — a northern province 700 miles from Buenos Aires — announced they were leaving the Unión por la Patria (Union for the Homeland) bloc, the coalition led by former president Cristina Kirchner (2007-2015). The decision was made by Governor Raúl Jalil, one of the Peronist leaders who have shown themselves open to dialogue with Milei’s administration. Jalil’s reasons are both political — he has been critical of the national leadership of Peronism and has demanded “self-criticism” for the failure of the previous government — and economic — mining is a key industry in his province and also in the economic model promoted by Milei.

The three legislators will form their own caucus, which, it is presumed, will be available to negotiate legislation on a case-by-case basis. One option still under consideration is for the new group to ally itself within Congress with sectors led by other Peronist governors who have distanced from Kirchnerism, such as Gustavo Sáenz, governor of Salta, and Osvaldo Jaldo, from Tucumán. Both Sáenz and Jaldo are also inclined to reach agreements with the government. There is a fourth seat held by the Partido Justicialista (Justicialist Party) in Catamarca, which, for the time being, will remain within the Peronist bloc.

With the departure of the Catamarca legislators, the Union for the Homeland bloc is left with 94 of the 257 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and in the halls of Congress it is believed that the Peronist bloc will face further departures.

Milei’s party La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) secured 95 seats on Tuesday, thanks to the addition of a representative from the province of Entre Ríos, and could continue to build support.

In the midterm elections on October 26, the far right won with 40% of the national vote. This result allowed them to more than double their meager representation of 38 seats, giving them control of nearly a third of the chamber. The support Milei garnered at the election — following the multi-billion dollar bailout granted by Donald Trump to his staunch South American ally — diminished the incentives to oppose the far-right government.

The first party to lose legislators to the far right was PRO. While the conservative party founded by former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) has acted as a reliable partner for the government, it has institutionally maintained its independence and has taken different positions in some votes.

But, in a gradual and steady process, a significant portion of its deputies and leaders have drifted away from Macri to join the libertarian ranks, following in the footsteps of Patricia Bullrich, who has just left her post as Minister of Security and will assume leadership of the ultraliberal bloc in the Senate. After the midterm elections, about 10 PRO deputies announced their move to the ruling coalition. There has also been an outflow of lawmakers from the century-old Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) toward La Libertad Avanza.

The term of the legislators elected in October will begin on December 10, when the parliamentary transition takes place. The deputies will take their seats this Wednesday in a preparatory session, where the stage will be set for Milei to attempt to advance his program of economic deregulation and dismantling of the state.

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