Claudia Sheinbaum has higher approval ratings than López Obrador after first year in office

Claudia Sheinbaum shines in her own right as president of Mexico. The first woman to hold the executive office enjoys strong approval after her first year in office, surpassing her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, with a 78% rating. By comparison, López Obrador had a 72% approval rating in his first year and reached 77% when leaving office, according to an Enkoll survey for EL PAÍS and W Radio.

Not only that, Sheinbaum’s approval ratings exceed those of the last four presidents who have governed Mexico since 2000, when power alternated after more than 70 years of governments controlled by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI): Vicente Fox, Felipe Calderón, Enrique Peña Nieto, and López Obrador.

Sheinbaum, one of the founders of the Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party, has consolidated the organization’s dominant position while advancing the social agenda set by her predecessor, the charismatic yet polarizing López Obrador.

This Wednesday marks one year since Sheinbaum took office at the National Palace. Her approval rating has not fallen below 75% during that time, according to a survey conducted last week with a thousand people across the country.

Her peak popularity came in May, when she enjoyed 83% support in a month marked by constant U.S. pressure against Mexican agricultural imports, the harassment of undocumented Mexicans in the United States, and U.S. investigations into local politicians in Baja California, including Morena Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila.

Since then, the president’s approval has dropped five points but remained at 78% in September, with only 18% disapproval. These figures exceed the approval ratings AMLO had one year into his presidency in November 2019, when 72% approved of his performance and 22% disapproved.

The president enjoys support across all education levels, although her backing is strongest among Mexicans who have only completed basic schooling. The survey shows that Sheinbaum also has support among those who identify as opposition voters.

Seventy-three percent of supporters of the National Action Party (PAN), 70% of Citizens’ Movement sympathizers, and 72% of PRI supporters — a party that has fallen to fourth place nationally — approve of her first year in office. Unaffiliated voters are the most critical, with 34% disapproving. However, 66% believe that Mexico’s situation “is improving.”

Optimism, however, has declined by 5% since January, when U.S. President Donald Trump took office. Since then, pessimism has increased regarding the economy’s performance amid the ongoing trade war.

According to respondents, the president’s success lies in continuing the extensive portfolio of social support programs initiated by Morena during the previous administration. Most survey participants mentioned transfers to senior citizens, one of López Obrador’s central policies since he was mayor of Mexico City — a program that Sheinbaum continued and expanded when she held the same office, which helped catapult her to the presidency.

Other programs highlighted include scholarships for young people, support for farmers, single mothers, and women in general. In fact, survey participants believe that women’s rights is the area that has seen the most progress in the first 12 months of her presidency, followed closely by social support initiatives.

Security remains Sheinbaum’s pending challenge after her first year. Only 7% of respondents cite the fight against insecurity as one of the administration’s major achievements, while 52% believe that crime and drug trafficking are the country’s most pressing problems.

This is despite the fact that the Security Cabinet and the president herself have highlighted for months one of their most significant achievements: a 32% reduction in homicides nationwide. The decline is even more pronounced in certain states that have suffered from drug-related violence in recent years, such as Guanajuato, in central Mexico, where homicides fell by 40%, and Nuevo León in the north, which recorded a 63% drop.

Twenty-five percent of respondents believe the president does not fight crime or corruption. This figure emerges at a time when Sheinbaum is dealing with two major scandals within her political circle. One involves Hernán Bermúdez, a former police chief from Tabasco — López Obrador’s home state and a close ally of Adán Augusto López, current Morena senator and former presidential hopeful — who has been accused of corruption and links to drug trafficking.

The other scandal concerns a large-scale tax fraud scheme involving the importation of millions of liters of fuel through Mexican customs while evading taxes, allegedly costing the treasury $9.2 billion annually. This reportedly occurred with the knowledge of personnel from the Navy and Mexican tax authorities during López Obrador’s administration.

Despite the remaining security challenges, Omar García Harfuch, the Secretary of Security and the main strategist of the new policy to combat criminal groups, stands out as the highest-rated politician in the Cabinet, with a 77% approval rating. Following him is Ariadna Montiel, head of the Welfare Ministry, responsible for distributing social support across the country.

The third is Marcelo Ebrard, López Obrador’s former foreign minister and now Secretary of Economy, tasked with renegotiating the North American trade agreement with Donald Trump’s United States. His performance is approved by 67% of respondents.

These figures are seen as part of a future generation of presidential hopefuls, even though Sheinbaum’s government still has five years ahead.

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