Claudia Sheinbaum: A scientist president caught between Mexico’s oil giant and climate action

In few area does Mexicab President Claudia Sheinbaum face more contradictions than in addressing climate change. She is trained as an environmental scientist — a path that led her to participate in a Nobel Prize — yet champions an energy sovereignty plan that places hydrocarbons at its core. While empowering her Secretary of Environment to position herself as a regional leader, Sheinbaum allocates nine out of every 10 pesos of the budget intended to mitigate climate change to projects such as the Tren Maya or the Secretariat of National Defense.

The truth is that Claudia Sheinbaum’s government began from a very low starting point. Her mentor and predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, never treated the climate crisis as a priority, canceling renewable energy projects in favor of hydrocarbons. Moreover, his relationship with environmental organizations was hostile, due to their opposition to megaprojects like the Tren Maya, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Interoceanic Corridor, or the Dos Bocas Olmeca Refinery. Meanwhile, Mexico, due to its geography and conditions, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change.

“We all welcomed this new administration with hope and confidence, especially given the president’s extensive experience in environmental matters,” says Anaid Velasco Ramírez, manager of Public Policy and Research at the Mexican Center for Environmental Law. “In the first few months, we welcomed public policies such as the restoration program and the agreements with industry on water concessions.”

The 2025–2023 National Environmental Restoration Program was presented in June 2025. It identifies 78 priority sites to begin environmental restoration processes in 2025 and 2026, with ambitious targets for 2030 such as restoring 30% of degraded coastal ecosystems, recovering 100,000 hectares of forest, cleaning priority river basins in Tula, Lerma-Santiago, Atoyac, and Río Sonora, and the Endhó and El Zapotillo dams.

“But then some announcements and policies from the energy sector came along, like Pemex’s plan that contemplates the use of fracking, which could jeopardize everything else,” says Velasco Ramírez.

In August, the Mexican government presented its 2025–2035 Strategic Plan to rescue, once again, Mexico’s state oil company Pemex. One of its main measures is to “reactivate the evaluation of complex geology deposits” to increase the country’s meager oil reserves. The only way to do this, however, is through hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a technique criticized by environmentalists. Another example is the 2025–2030 Plan for Strengthening and Expanding the National Electricity System, which lists 35 new power generation plants, most of which rely on hydrocarbons such as natural gas.

“Moreover, all these public policies need funding to become reality, and unfortunately, in the federal budget we once again see the environmental sector being shortchanged,” laments Velasco Ramírez. In politics, as the saying goes, love is shown with money in the budget.

According to the 2026 Federal Expenditure Budget proposal, Mexico will allocate 220 billion pesos ($11.8 million) for “Resources for the Adaptation and Mitigation of the Effects of Climate Change.” But, as has been the case since for the last six years, the lion’s share goes to projects that do not combat climate change, such as Railway Infrastructure for Freight and Passenger Transport or the Articulation of Hydrocarbon Policy. For example: the Secretariat of National Defense receives 40% of the funds, while the Secretariat of Environment receives less than 4%.

“Compared to López Obrador, who didn’t believe in climate change, we’re much better off,” says Luis Zambrano, a researcher specializing in ecological restoration at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), “but Sheinbaum continues to rely heavily on these very old-fashioned visions of giving money to Pemex, linking it to national identity.”

“The most positive aspect for me is the team at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources [Semarnat], starting with its leader, Alicia Bárcenas, who understands environmental issues very well, both technically and politically,” Zambrano argues.

During López Obrador’s six-year term, Semarnat had three leaders: Josefa González-Blanco, an ecologist remembered more for her pronunciation of “September” in English than for her work in the institution; Víctor Manuel Toledo, a respected academic who neither could nor knew how to operate politically; and María Luis Albores González, who had a much more social than environmental profile.

For Zambrano, Bárcenas is the best Semarnat secretary Mexico has had since Julia Carabias, who practically created the institution during Ernesto Zedillo’s administration (1994-2000). “She has a scientific background and a very political career. Sheinbaum knew how to choose someone who understands and knows her job well.” He cites, as an example, the project for a fourth cruise ship dock at the port of Cozumel, Quintana Roo, which, although approved by Semarnat, is under review following public pressure.

It is precisely Bárcenas who is trying to position Mexico as an environmental leader. She did so at the 2025 Climate Week in New York, where she called for an end to extractive models, and when she chaired a meeting in Mexico City with 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries that ended with a joint declaration to “carry out a transition away from fossil fuels.”

At the same time, however, Pemex and the Mexican energy sector continue their plans to burn hydrocarbons. The Claudia Sheinbaum government is attempting to reconcile these contradictory policies, balancing both positions. Yet, when it comes to the budget, one clearly receives much more love than the other.

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