Ciudad Juárez feeling the pressure of tariffs and mass deportations from the US

Over the past year, Mexico has had to deal with threats from the United States regarding tariffs and mass deportations, whether or not they have been implemented, or only partially. Much of the pressure has fallen on the north of the country, where returnees arrive and where maquiladoras (factories in duty-free zones) are the first to suffer the effects of the trade war.

Faced with this situation, President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained a stance of dialogue, avoiding conflict with Donald Trump while simultaneously maintaining her position of respect for the sovereignty and rights of Mexicans in the United States. In eight months since he returned to the White House, she has not met personally with the U.S. president, but she has weathered his threats, and her relationship with Washington is better than that of Mexico’s other major partners, Canada and China, with whom important political ties have been severed.

Repatriations of migrants

Before Trump took office for a second term, the Mexican government was already preparing for what appeared to be a looming deportation crisis. At various points along the northern border, it set up camps to receive returning Mexicans.

One of the largest and the first to be ready was in Ciudad Juárez, a mega-tent structure with a capacity to accommodate 2,500 people. However, so far, it has only served a maximum of 100 people a day, according to Welfare delegate Mayra Chávez, coordinator of this facility.

“There is an upward trend, but it’s small. We can’t talk about a mass repatriation. It’s been managed at all times. It’s not a migration emergency at all, and it’s a good thing it isn’t,” the Chihuahua delegate said in an interview.

Although the camp — part of the “Mexico Embraces You” strategy — proved excessive for the number of returnees, the effort will continue given the uncertainty generated by Trump’s rhetoric on immigration issues.

“It [the camp] will remain in place. The president has insisted on this because we are not sure how the president of the neighboring country will handle the situation,” Chávez said.

On September 25, Sheinbaum announced that 108,813 Mexicans have been repatriated since Trump took office on January 20. In total, 206,233 Mexicans were repatriated during 2024, according to data from the Immigration Policy, Registration, and Identity of Persons Unit of the Ministry of the Interior, based on information recorded at the official repatriation points of the National Migration Institute.

Trump’s immigration policy has succeeded, at least in rhetoric, in containing and inhibiting the flow of migrants from south to north almost completely. Shelters that before his arrival appeared to be at capacity or had exceeded it are now practically empty, with an average occupancy rate below 10%.

The weight of tariffs

Trump launched the trade war with neighboring countries on February 1, when he signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports to the United States from Mexico and Canada. Mexico, especially in the north of the country, has hundreds of maquiladora companies that ship materials or finished products to the U.S., ranging from auto parts to medical supplies, textiles, and food.

The U.S. president’s justification alluded to human and drug trafficking, primarily fentanyl. That same day, Sheinbaum responded in a statement: “We categorically reject the slander made by the White House against the Mexican government about alliances with criminal organizations. If there is such an alliance anywhere, it is in the U.S. gun shops that sell high-powered weapons to these criminal groups. Problems are not resolved by imposing tariffs, but by talking and dialoguing, as we have done in recent weeks with the State Department.”

Since then, the United States has reversed the measure and, although it has imposed deadlines — right now, the clock is ticking on a 90-day period that ends in November — these tariffs have not been reimplemented, at least not at this level or on products covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Sheinbaum did, however, make concessions on the deployment of National Guard troops and Defense Ministry agents to strengthen surveillance along Mexico’s northern border with the aim of reducing drug and human trafficking to the United States.

“Mexico does not want confrontation. We start from a position of collaboration between neighboring countries. Mexico not only does not want fentanyl to reach the United States, but anywhere else,” said the president, emphasizing in her speech respect for sovereignty, an argument she has had to repeat on several occasions to make it heard on the other side of the northern border.

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