In Ecuador, Noboa and González will compete for the presidency after a tight first round

The first round of the presidential elections in Ecuador ended in a technical tie between the two main candidates, but the left is viewing it as a victory because the outcome was unexpected. Daniel Noboa and Luisa González will face each other on April 13, in a runoff vote that will be definitive. With 78% of the ballots counted, President Noboa has 44.5% of votes, compared to Luisa González’s 44.1%.

The president was the favorite in the polls, and his campaign team had planted the idea that there would be no need for a runoff. To win outright, a candidate needed 50% of the vote, or to have at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the closest opponent.

In the end, the vote will go to a runoff, despite the fact that the president has had state resources behind his own campaign. Upon learning the results, González gave a euphoric speech to her supporters in Quito, while Noboa did not address his followers. His headquarters, with empty chairs and glasses on the floor, reflected his mood.

Ecuadorians will decide in two months whether they want to keep being led by a 37-year-old millennial who has managed to infiltrate almost all the powers of the state, and who is the son of the country’s wealthiest man. Or whether they opt for a representative of the left who has inherited the social base of former president Rafael Correa. If elected, González would also become the first female president in Ecuador’s history.

Noboa began his term with very high popularity ratings of over 70%. He led a military offensive against crime that reduced homicides and allowed control of prisons. However, the strategy began to fail and the mafias have since redoubled their challenge to the government. Poverty and unemployment levels have increased, and Ecuadorians have suffered 16-hour blackouts for four months. The Noboa phenomenon has started to crack.

The campaign that preceded the vote has been an unusual one. Noboa is not a great speaker and has not been seen much in public. He filled a coliseum at the end of his campaign and spoke for three minutes. On Sunday, he did not even make an appearance. His publicity has instead focused on the internet, which has been flooded with banners with his face, and through the media with articles about the public works he has inaugurated. Noboa sought a legal loophole to be the first presidential candidate, something that is prohibited by law. The judicial and electoral powers have largely aligned with his interests, with only the Constitutional Court standing as a barrier to his attempts to control Ecuador’s institutions.

It is surprising how such an inexperienced politician has managed to accumulate so much power in just 14 months, after the previous president, Guillermo Lasso, quit halfway through his term over a corruption case. Noboa took away all powers from his vice president, Verónica Abad, to the point of humiliating her by forcibly sending her to Israel. Abad came to fear for her life. Noboa is risking family pride in the next vote. His father Álvaro, a tycoon who made a fortune exporting bananas, invested tens of millions of dollars in five presidential campaigns, but never succeeded in achieving political power. Daniel now seeks to perpetuate the family name.

González, for her part, has led a campaign free of controversy and direct confrontation with her rival. A very religious person, she ended up on the political left through Correa’s fusion of socialism and Catholicism. But her way of doing things has nothing to do with the style of Correa, a leader in the style of other Latin American presidents who believe themselves to be the natural heirs of Simón Bolivar. This powerful image made him an inspiration to many, but also got him hated by many others. Often quick-tempered, Correa has remained restrained and in the background during this campaign. González has not mentioned him much so as not to mobilize her critics in an increasingly aggressive public space. The detractors of both fear that they would take advantage of a González presidency to benefit Correa judicially. The latter is currently living in self-exile in Brussels and claims that his enemies are persecuting him with fabricated cases.

González came out with shining eyes to speak to her supporters, who were waiting for her at an event in Quito. She was experiencing the most exciting moment of her political career. “Let us not forget what we are up against: a presidential candidate who used the power of the state and its assets to run his campaign,” she said. In passing, González gave a nod to the indigenous candidate Leonidas Iza, who earned around 5% of the vote, a share that could be vital in the second round: “I congratulate Leonidas Iza. He got an important vote.”

The winner of the runoff will have a lot of work to do. Ecuador has a public debt of more than $5 billion, which has put even the payroll of government workers at risk. Noboa has cleverly managed to raise VAT and reduce the gasoline subsidy without causing social unrest. However, many more fiscal adjustments are needed. At the same time, the country is experiencing an unprecedented security crisis. Local gangs and Mexican drug cartels have infiltrated the institutions. Noboa has confronted them with the army, but there are regions where violence is rampant. January has been the month with the most murders in history. Guayaquil is a lawless city where citizens are extorted and mafias control entire neighborhoods, where tons of cocaine are stored and shipped to the rest of the world from the port. The authorities are aware of this phenomenon, but have been unable to put an end to it.

On Sunday, voters also decided the makeup of the new National Assembly. In a political scenario without a clear winner, whichever president takes office will depend largely on the pacts that he or she manages to establish in the National Assembly. With half of the votes counted, ADN, Noboa’s party, has 45% of seats, a higher number than it has now. González’s Citizen Revolution has 38.45%. This means that, whatever happens in 63 days, Noboa and González will have to come to an understanding to ensure Ecuador’s governability. One will do so from Carondelet Palace, the seat of the government and presidential residence. The other, from the opposition. Ecuadorians will decide each candidate’s role.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition