Los Chapitos’ dual battle: Defeating El Mayo in Sinaloa and surviving US prosecution

The future of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s heirs is divided by a border spanning more than 1,860 miles. In the United States, Joaquín and Ovidio Guzmán López face a critical court hearing in Chicago on January 7, the deadline set by the judge for them to decide whether to plead guilty or proceed with separate legal defenses. Meanwhile, in Mexico, Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar are locked in a relentless war against the forces of their former ally, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, vying for control of the Sinaloa Cartel. These four brothers — two fugitives and two imprisoned — bear the weight of determining the immediate fate of one of the world’s most powerful and feared criminal empires.

The children from El Chapo’s second marriage are set to make their first joint appearance next Tuesday since Joaquín Guzmán Jr., known as “El Güero,” surrendered to U.S. authorities in late July. His arrest was surrounded by controversy. The drug lord stepped off a small plane at a modest rural airport in New Mexico and was apprehended without a single shot being fired.

Also aboard the plane was El Mayo, co-founder and top leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, who later accused El Güero, his godson, of abducting him and forcibly transporting him to the United States. Zambada’s retaliation was inevitable but delayed; it came a month and a half later, despite calls for peace from the Mexican government, which accused Washington of provoking chaos to facilitate the capture.

Amid allegations of betrayal and mounting diplomatic tensions, war erupted in Sinaloa on September 9. Since then, at least 635 people have been killed in the state alone, according to official figures.

“It was not a U.S. plane, it was not a U.S. pilot, it was not our agents or our people in Mexico,” said Ken Salazar, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, presenting the official U.S. account of the arrests on August 9. However, just a day later, El Mayo’s lawyers released a letter offering a starkly different narrative.

In the letter, Zambada accused Los Chapitos of betraying him, claiming they lured him to a meeting with Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha and Héctor Cuén, a prominent local politician who was killed on July 25. Governor Rocha, already under intense scrutiny for the state’s spiraling security crisis, has denied attending any such meeting and categorically rejected any ties to organized crime.

In an unexpected twist, Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office (FGR) launched its own investigation to uncover the events that transpired on Mexican soil that day. A week later, the FGR adopted Zambada’s account as its primary line of inquiry.

On August 21, the agency filed criminal charges against Joaquín Guzmán López for the alleged kidnapping of Zambada. Just eight days later, it announced an additional investigation into the possible involvement of his brother, Ovidio Guzmán, known as “El Ratón,” in the conspiracy to hand over El Mayo.

Ovidio Guzmán was arrested in January 2023 during the Mexican government’s second attempt to apprehend him and was extradited to the United States in September of that year. Los Chapitos now face multiple charges, including drug trafficking, money laundering, and illegal possession of firearms, in the Northern District Court of Illinois in Chicago.

Since Zambada’s downfall, speculation has arisen that Joaquín Guzmán may have considered handing over El Mayo and cooperating with U.S. authorities to seek leniency in the criminal cases against him and his brother. Although not explicitly mentioned, this suspicion prompted the Mexican Attorney General’s Office to announce an investigation into El Ratón’s potential involvement in the conspiracy to abduct El Mayo.

The lawyers for Los Chapitos have denied any ongoing negotiations and dismissed the allegations surrounding El Mayo’s kidnapping. However, in October, they acknowledged that their clients were considering pleading guilty. While a plea agreement does not automatically imply cooperation with authorities or access to a reduced sentence, it does increase the likelihood of such a possibility.

Despite reports in the Mexican media and the back-and-forth statements between the legal teams of both cartel factions, there has been no official confirmation of a negotiation. The upcoming hearing in Chicago, however, could offer insight into the legal strategy that Ovidio and Joaquín Guzmán plan to pursue in their efforts to navigate the U.S. justice system as favorably as possible.

Meanwhile, Zambada’s lawyers have not ruled out the possibility of cooperating or pleading guilty in order to avoid going to trial. El Mayo is set to stand trial in the Eastern District Court of New York, before the same judge who sentenced El Chapo to life in prison in 2019. His next hearing is scheduled for January 15.

Just five days later, Donald Trump, who has pledged to intensify the fight against the cartels and designate them as terrorist organizations, will be sworn in as President of the United States.

South of the border, Culiacán, the long-standing stronghold of the criminal organization, has turned into a battlefield, and the deepening rift within the Sinaloa Cartel, the largest in over a decade, shows no sign of subsiding. Los Mayos and Los Chapitos have instilled fear in the civilian population through decapitations, murders, kidnappings, blockades, and narco-messages aimed at intimidating their rivals and the authorities. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has deployed Omar García Harfuch, the Secretary of Security, to coordinate the law enforcement strategy on the ground.

“It will last as long as necessary,” said García Harfuch after arriving in Sinaloa in early December, when asked when the violence in the state would come to an end. The state prosecutor and the secretary of security both resigned following the outbreak of the conflict. Amid the crisis, the outcome of the war remains uncertain, as does the fate of those living in its midst.

“It will last as long as necessary,” said García Harfuch, after arriving in Sinaloa in early December, when asked when the violence in the state will end. The prosecutor and the state secretary of security resigned after the outbreak of the conflict. Amid the crisis, the outcome of the war remains unclear, as does the fate of those caught in its midst.

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